Mortgage rates reverse course as 30-year climbs back above 3 percent
Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage investor, aggregates rates from about 80 lenders across the country to come up with weekly national average mortgage rates. It uses rates for high-quality borrowers who tend to have strong credit scores and large down payments. These rates are not available to every borrower.
The 15-year fixed-rate average increased to 2.54 percent with an average 0.7 point. It was 2.48 percent a week ago and 3.18 percent a year ago. The five-year adjustable rate average grew to 3.09 percent with an average 0.3 point. It was 3.06 percent a week ago and 3.47 percent a year ago.
Despite the uptick, rates remain near historic lows.
“Rates have been remarkably flat lately, holding at or near record low levels for essentially the entire month of July,” said Matthew Speakman, a Zillow economist. “The reason for this is, of course, recent developments with the coronavirus pandemic. Investors continue to hold pat, waiting for clearer signs of damage to the economy as a result of the recent surge in cases, or evidence of society’s resilience and ability to maintain some form of normalcy.”
The low rates have spurred the housing market, one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy.
“The drop in rates is absolutely good news for anyone who wants to buy a home, as it increases the buyer’s purchasing power,” said Brian Koss, executive vice president of Mortgage Network. “On the flip side, low rates create increased demand for housing, which could potentially drive up prices. It really depends on what’s happening in the borrower’s local market.”
Enticed by low rates, buyers returned in force last month. Existing-home sales rocketed up nearly 21 percent in June, the highest monthly gain on record. But even with the strong rebound from sharp declines in the previous months because of coronavirus shutdowns, sales were still down more than 11 percent annually.
“Existing-home sales are the latest major metric to climb out of the loss column, as reopenings in May and June boosted contract signings that resulted in strong June sales numbers,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s progress, but the annualized number reported [Wednesday] for June is still far below the actual 5.34 million sold in 2019. Sales are still hampered by the weak economy, which causes fewer Americans to move for jobs and so keeps the supply of existing homes on the market low, as well as the potential buyers’ reluctance to tour homes due to covid-19.”
Not every borrower can take advantage of these low rates, however.
“Borrowers need to show they are a safe credit risk and have the ability to make their payments,” Koss said. “Because lenders face an increased risk of borrowers requesting forbearance due to the economy, those with poor credit, high debt, and inconsistent income will have a harder time getting qualified.”
“Many mortgage lenders are suffering from mortgage fatigue,” said Jeff Lazerson, president of MortgageGrader in Laguna Niguel, Calif. “If they can’t handle the mortgage loan volume as it is right now, there is zero motivation to drop rates further.”
Koss agrees.
“Lenders have been operating at the highest levels over capacity for the longest period of time, with no break,” he said. “Many simply cannot take on more business. … The burden is on the consumer to get their lender’s attention and to complete the loan paperwork in a timely fashion, so their lender knows they are serious.”
But James Sahnger, mortgage planner at C2 Financial in Jupiter, Fla., predicts rates will continue to fall.
“Until the virus starts to slow in growth or a vaccine or cure is discovered, it’s hard to imagine rates roaring back,” Sahnger said. “They should continue to dwindle lower. It’s not all covid-19, though. The [Federal Reserve] meets next week with lots to consider, including escalating China tensions, global economic slowdown and accurately predicting where we are going in the next several months as well as 2021.”
Meanwhile, refinances fueled mortgage applications last week. According to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — increased 4.1 percent from a week earlier.
The purchase index was slightly higher, up 2 percent from the previous week and up 19 percent year-over-year. The refinance index rose 5 percent and was 122 percent higher than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 64.8 percent of applications.
“Borrower demand has heated up as summer has progressed, with very strong levels of both refinance and purchase activity,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO. “Refinances are up over 100 percent from last year, and purchase applications … have now increased on an annual basis for nine straight weeks. Ongoing economic uncertainty and the resurgence of covid-19 cases in parts of the country present head winds for the housing market, but MBA is forecasting a 2.2 percent increase in home purchase originations in 2020.”
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