Fantasy football top 200 rankings and projections


(Washington Post illustration, Associated Press photos) (The Washington Post)
August 4 at 9:37 AM

Don’t go into your fantasy football draft without our next-level rankings of the top 200 potential picks, complete with season-long projected point totals. These projections, which use point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, are adjusted for injury risk, positional scarcity and strength of schedule. For those who sweat the nitty-gritty, you can read more about the methodology here, including how the players are ranked.

1. Christian McCaffrey (CAR-RB)

431 projected fantasy points in 2020

The third-year back had the second-best fantasy season in NFL history last year. McCaffrey earned a ridiculous 471.2 fantasy points, thanks to a league-high 2,392 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He also became the third player in NFL history to record 1,000 or more rushing yards and 1,000 or more receiving yards in the same season. And in 2020, you can expect the Panthers, now with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and under new head coach Matt Rhule, to rely on McCaffrey again.

Indeed, McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts, and appears poised for another standout season. Since he is the projected top running back we can expect him to score around 430 fantasy points, a simple three-year weighted average of the top spot. The top running back scored an average of 391 fantasy points from 2002 to 2019 (six times topping the 400-point mark), while the second-best back has averaged 348 fantasy points.

Plus, McCaffrey has little injury risk (he has never missed a game); is in his prime (he turned 24 in January) and gets a massive workload. He is responsible for more than half (53 percent) of Carolina’s rushes and catches since his rookie season in 2017.

2. Saquon Barkley (NYG-RB)

349 projected fantasy points in 2020

Barkley carried the ball 217 times for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games last season. He added 52 catches (on 73 targets) for 438 receiving yards and two touchdowns. A vertical offensive scheme under new Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett plus a bolstered offensive line should allow Barkley to have a fantasy season that surpasses either of his first two campaigns.

3. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL-RB)

338 projected fantasy points in 2020

No running back got more carries in the red zone last year than Elliott and only four got more targets through the air, making him a solid contributor to any fantasy squad. Plus, the Cowboys are expected to have the third-best offensive line in the NFL next season, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.

4. Michael Thomas (NO-WR)

377 projected fantasy points in 2020

Thomas is coming off a record-breaking year in which he set the NFL’s single-season receptions mark with 149. He also led the league in target share, accounting for a third of his team’s passing attempts.

5. Alvin Kamara (NO-RB)

326 projected fantasy points in 2020

Kamara has led the Saints in share of red-zone touches over the past three seasons (33 percent), and he’s been among the league leaders twice in the past three seasons in terms of fantasy points per carry.

6. Dalvin Cook (MIN-RB)

310 projected fantasy points in 2020

No longer a threat to hold out for the season, Cook is in a prime spot for 2020. The Pro Bowler produced 1,654 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns last season for a team that loves running the ball. Minnesota called a rushing play 49 percent of the time last year, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

7. Derrick Henry (TEN-RB)

287 projected fantasy points in 2020

Henry enjoyed a career year in 2019, carrying the ball 303 times for a league-leading 1,540 yards plus 16 touchdowns. The Tennessee coaching staff uses an outside zone scheme that helped Henry produce a success rate six percent higher than average when he ran to the left side of the offensive line and 16 percent higher than average when his run took him to the right side, per Sharp Sports stats.

8. Julio Jones (ATL-WR)

312 projected fantasy points in 2020

Jones has topped 1,300 receiving yards six years in a row and his catch rate on deep throws (46 percent on passes traveling 20 or more yards) last season was the third highest among wideouts with at least 25 deep targets.

9. Davante Adams (GB-WR)

311 projected fantasy points in 2020

Adams has seen more than 110 targets in four straight seasons — and that’s despite him missing four games last year with a turf toe injury. That’s because he and quarterback Aaron Rodgers have tremendous chemistry. Rodgers’s passer rating when he targets Adams over those four years is 109.0, compared to 95.9 when he targets any other Packers.

Aaron Rodgers (2017 to 2019) YDS/ATT TD% Passer rating
Passes to Davante Adams 8.0 8 percent 109.0
Passes to everyone else 7.0 4 percent 95.9

10. Patrick Mahomes (KC-QB)

433 projected fantasy points in 2020

Mahomes finished as just the seventh-best fantasy quarterback in 2019 largely due to throwing one or no touchdowns passes in seven of his 14 regular season games. That shouldn’t happen this year, especially with the Chiefs facing three of the worst projected secondaries of 2020 per Pro Football Focus (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New York Jets) and nine below average secondaries overall. As an added bonus, the game against the Falcons occurs in Week 16, typically reserved for fantasy football championship matchups.

11. Tyreek Hill (KC-WR)

306 projected fantasy points in 2020

The speedster missed four games due to suspension last year but still managed to catch 58 of 89 targets for 860 yards and seven touchdowns. From Weeks 6 to 14, which is usually the end of the fantasy football regular season, only four wideouts saw more deep targets (20 or more yards) than Hill.

12. Joe Mixon (CIN-RB)

266 projected fantasy points in 2020

Mixon’s name was called 18 times inside the 5-yard line in 2019 and he scored seven touchdowns in those chances. Only two other running backs, Cook and McCaffrey, had more touches in those situations.

13. Kenyan Drake (ARI-RB)

263 projected fantasy points in 2020

After joining the Cardinals in Week 9, Drake saw his fantasy output soar from 9.5 to 19.7 points per game in point-per-reception leagues. He averaged better than 25 points per game in Weeks 15 and 16, typically reserved for the fantasy football semifinal and championship rounds.

14. DeAndre Hopkins (ARI-WR)

301 projected fantasy points in 2020

A surprise March trade sent Hopkins to Arizona, where he will be paired with quarterback Kyler Murray and will play alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Hopkins’s target share should drop but he will also get to face weaker secondaries such as the Washington Football Team (28th best secondary heading into 2020, per PFF), Carolina Panthers (31st), New York Jets (32nd), Dallas Cowboys (22nd) and New York Giants (27th).

15. Chris Godwin (TB-WR)

298 projected fantasy points in 2020

Godwin finished as the second-highest scoring wideout in PPR leagues last season despite seeing fewer than 20 percent of his team’s targets (121 targets). Teammate Mike Evans also got more red-zone opportunities than Godwin (16 to 13).


Allen Robinson excelled against man coverage last season. (Charles Rex Arbogast/AP)

16. Allen Robinson (CHI-WR)

291 projected fantasy points in 2020

Robinson led the league in success rate (how often a receiver gets open against the defenders covering him) when facing man coverage in 2019, according to Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports. Robinson was successful 79 percent of the time he faced man coverage.

17. Miles Sanders (PHI-RB)

249 projected fantasy points in 2020

The 23-year-old showed he was a capable three-down back as a rookie last season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 10.2 yards per reception.

18. Kenny Golladay (DET-WR)

281 projected fantasy points in 2020

Golladay caught passes from three different quarterbacks in 2019 and still managed to break the 1,000-yard plateau with 11 touchdowns. Plus, he saw the second-most end zone targets (14) last year.

19. Austin Ekeler (LAC-RB)

242 projected fantasy points in 2020

Ekeler is a dynamic playmaker who earned PFF’s highest receiving grade among running backs in 2019. Expect new quarterback Tyrod Taylor to lean just as heavily on Ekeler out of the backfield. During Taylor’s time as a starting quarterback in Buffalo (2015 to 2017), he threw to his running backs more than 18 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia — 10th-most among quarterbacks in that span.

20. Travis Kelce (KC-TE)

279 projected fantasy points in 2020

The top fantasy tight end surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for a fourth straight season and continues to rack up the red-zone targets. Kelce hasn’t ranked outside of the top six tight ends for most red-zone targets in a season since 2015, and he has been in the top three in each of the past three years.

Season Red-zone targets Rank among TE
2014 11 16th
2015 10 14th
2016 16 6th
2017 19 3rd
2018 24 2nd
2019 19 1st

21. Mike Evans (TB-WR)

278 projected fantasy points in 2020

Among players with at least 50 targets last season, only three saw a higher average depth of target than Evans (15.1 yards past the line of scrimmage). Only D.K. Metcalf saw more targets than Evans in the end zone (14).

22. Nick Chubb (CLE-RB)

238 projected fantasy points in 2020

Chubb had 39 carries producing 10 yards or more last season, behind only Derrick Henry, who ranks seventh in our rankings.

23. Josh Jacobs (LV-RB)

232 projected fantasy points in 2020

Jacobs had 242 carries for 1,150 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie last season while leading the league in forced missed tackles (69), allowing him to average a robust 4.8 yards per attempt.

24. D.J. Moore (CAR-WR)

267 projected fantasy points in 2020

Carolina’s first-round pick in 2018 had four games with at least 100 receiving yards in 2019, plus he was one of five players to make at least four plays of 50 or more yards last year.

25. JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT-WR)

263 projected fantasy points in 2020

Pittsburgh backup starting quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges threw 54 catchable balls to Smith-Schuster last season, one of the lowest rates among receivers with at least as many targets as Smith-Schuster (70), per data from Sports Info Solutions. Starter Ben Roethlisberger, by comparison, threw him a catchable pass 87 percent of the time from 2017 to 2018.

26. Amari Cooper (DAL-WR)

256 projected fantasy points in 2020

27. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC-RB)

222 projected fantasy points in 2020

28. Adam Thielen (MIN-WR)

248 projected fantasy points in 2020

29. George Kittle (SF-TE)

257 projected fantasy points in 2020

30. Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE-WR)

248 projected fantasy points in 2020

31. Aaron Jones (GB-RB)

215 projected fantasy points in 2020

32. Cooper Kupp (LAR-WR)

246 projected fantasy points in 2020

33. Todd Gurley (ATL-RB)

212 projected fantasy points in 2020

34. Leonard Fournette (JAC-RB)

208 projected fantasy points in 2020

35. Robert Woods (LAR-WR)

239 projected fantasy points in 2020

36. Chris Carson (SEA-RB)

206 projected fantasy points in 2020

37. Calvin Ridley (ATL-WR)

234 projected fantasy points in 2020

38. Zach Ertz (PHI-TE)

244 projected fantasy points in 2020

39. Keenan Allen (LAC-WR)

224 projected fantasy points in 2020

40. Melvin Gordon (DEN-RB)

195 projected fantasy points in 2020

41. A.J. Brown (TEN-WR)

223 projected fantasy points in 2020

42. Le’Veon Bell (NYJ-RB)

193 projected fantasy points in 2020

43. Courtland Sutton (DEN-WR)

217 projected fantasy points in 2020

44. D.J. Chark (JAC-WR)

217 projected fantasy points in 2020

45. James Conner (PIT-RB)

189 projected fantasy points in 2020

46. Lamar Jackson (BAL-QB)

367 projected fantasy points in 2020

47. Tyler Lockett (SEA-WR)

213 projected fantasy points in 2020

48. Terry McLaurin (WAS-WR)

211 projected fantasy points in 2020

49. David Johnson (HOU-RB)

184 projected fantasy points in 2020

50. Mark Andrews (BAL-TE)

228 projected fantasy points in 2020

51. Mark Ingram II (BAL-RB)

179 projected fantasy points in 2020

52. Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB)

176 projected fantasy points in 2020

53. D.K. Metcalf (SEA-WR)

201 projected fantasy points in 2020

54. David Montgomery (CHI-RB)

173 projected fantasy points in 2020

55. DeVante Parker (MIA-WR)

195 projected fantasy points in 2020

56. Dak Prescott (DAL-QB)

353 projected fantasy points in 2020

57. Stefon Diggs (BUF-WR)

192 projected fantasy points in 2020

58. T.Y. Hilton (IND-WR)

191 projected fantasy points in 2020

59. Devin Singletary (BUF-RB)

164 projected fantasy points in 2020

60. Jarvis Landry (CLE-WR)

187 projected fantasy points in 2020

61. Darren Waller (LV-TE)

212 projected fantasy points in 2020

62. Kareem Hunt (CLE-RB)

162 projected fantasy points in 2020

63. Tyler Boyd (CIN-WR)

185 projected fantasy points in 2020

64. Raheem Mostert (SF-RB)

159 projected fantasy points in 2020

65. Julian Edelman (NE-WR)

181 projected fantasy points in 2020

66. A.J. Green (CIN-WR)

181 projected fantasy points in 2020

67. Marquise Brown (BAL-WR)

180 projected fantasy points in 2020

68. D’Andre Swift (DET-RB)

155 projected fantasy points in 2020

69. Cam Akers (LAR-RB)

155 projected fantasy points in 2020

70. Russell Wilson (SEA-QB)

341 projected fantasy points in 2020

71. Michael Gallup (DAL-WR)

175 projected fantasy points in 2020

72. Tarik Cohen (CHI-RB)

152 projected fantasy points in 2020

73. James White (NE-RB)

150 projected fantasy points in 2020

74. Marvin Jones (DET-WR)

170 projected fantasy points in 2020

75. Derrius Guice (WAS-RB)

144 projected fantasy points in 2020

76. Evan Engram (NYG-TE)

196 projected fantasy points in 2020

77. Ronald Jones II (TB-RB)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

78. Brandin Cooks (HOU-WR)

158 projected fantasy points in 2020

79. Kyler Murray (ARI-QB)

328 projected fantasy points in 2020

80. Matt Breida (MIA-RB)

138 projected fantasy points in 2020

81. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB-RB)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

82. Jordan Howard (MIA-RB)

136 projected fantasy points in 2020

83. Christian Kirk (ARI-WR)

153 projected fantasy points in 2020

84. Will Fuller (HOU-WR)

153 projected fantasy points in 2020

85. Phillip Lindsay (DEN-RB)

132 projected fantasy points in 2020

86. Sony Michel (NE-RB)

131 projected fantasy points in 2020

87. Diontae Johnson (PIT-WR)

149 projected fantasy points in 2020

88. J.K. Dobbins (BAL-RB)

127 projected fantasy points in 2020

89. Sterling Shepard (NYG-WR)

143 projected fantasy points in 2020

90. Jamison Crowder (NYJ-WR)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

91. John Brown (BUF-WR)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

92. Darius Slayton (NYG-WR)

138 projected fantasy points in 2020

93. Anthony Miller (CHI-WR)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

94. Kerryon Johnson (DET-RB)

120 projected fantasy points in 2020

95. Emmanuel Sanders (NO-WR)

136 projected fantasy points in 2020

96. Tyler Higbee (LAR-TE)

176 projected fantasy points in 2020

97. Deebo Samuel (SF-WR)

133 projected fantasy points in 2020

98. Tevin Coleman (SF-RB)

117 projected fantasy points in 2020

99. Latavius Murray (NO-RB)

116 projected fantasy points in 2020

100. Hunter Henry (LAC-TE)

171 projected fantasy points in 2020

101. Deshaun Watson (HOU-QB)

307 projected fantasy points in 2020

102. CeeDee Lamb (DAL-WR)

126 projected fantasy points in 2020

103. Marlon Mack (IND-RB)

110 projected fantasy points in 2020

104. Mike Williams (LAC-WR)

124 projected fantasy points in 2020

105. Golden Tate (NYG-WR)

123 projected fantasy points in 2020

106. Josh Allen (BUF-QB)

304 projected fantasy points in 2020

107. Hayden Hurst (ATL-TE)

165 projected fantasy points in 2020

108. Jerry Jeudy (DEN-WR)

121 projected fantasy points in 2020

109. Preston Williams (MIA-WR)

120 projected fantasy points in 2020

110. Darrell Henderson (LAR-RB)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

111. Duke Johnson (HOU-RB)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

112. Justin Jefferson (MIN-WR)

119 projected fantasy points in 2020

113. Henry Ruggs III (LV-WR)

116 projected fantasy points in 2020

114. Jalen Reagor (PHI-WR)

115 projected fantasy points in 2020

115. Robby Anderson (CAR-WR)

115 projected fantasy points in 2020

116. Alexander Mattison (MIN-RB)

101 projected fantasy points in 2020

117. Mecole Hardman (KC-WR)

114 projected fantasy points in 2020

118. Carson Wentz (PHI-QB)

298 projected fantasy points in 2020

119. Tony Pollard (DAL-RB)

100 projected fantasy points in 2020

120. Matt Ryan (ATL-QB)

297 projected fantasy points in 2020

121. N’Keal Harry (NE-WR)

111 projected fantasy points in 2020

122. Nyheim Hines (IND-RB)

98 projected fantasy points in 2020

123. Austin Hooper (CLE-TE)

157 projected fantasy points in 2020

124. Drew Brees (NO-QB)

295 projected fantasy points in 2020

125. Jared Cook (NO-TE)

155 projected fantasy points in 2020

126. Zack Moss (BUF-RB)

94 projected fantasy points in 2020

127. Curtis Samuel (CAR-WR)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

128. Breshad Perriman (NYJ-WR)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

129. Boston Scott (PHI-RB)

93 projected fantasy points in 2020

130. Sammy Watkins (KC-WR)

104 projected fantasy points in 2020

131. Rob Gronkowski (TB-TE)

152 projected fantasy points in 2020

132. Antonio Gibson (WAS-RB)

91 projected fantasy points in 2020

133. Chase Edmonds (ARI-RB)

91 projected fantasy points in 2020

134. DeSean Jackson (PHI-WR)

101 projected fantasy points in 2020

135. Adrian Peterson (WAS-RB)

90 projected fantasy points in 2020

136. Tom Brady (TB-QB)

289 projected fantasy points in 2020

137. Alshon Jeffery (PHI-WR)

100 projected fantasy points in 2020

138. San Francisco defense (SF-DEF)

177 projected fantasy points in 2020

139. Michael Pittman Jr. (IND-WR)

99 projected fantasy points in 2020

140. Brandon Aiyuk (SF-WR)

98 projected fantasy points in 2020

141. Hunter Renfrow (LV-WR)

97 projected fantasy points in 2020

142. Allen Lazard (GB-WR)

97 projected fantasy points in 2020

143. Justin Jackson (LAC-RB)

85 projected fantasy points in 2020

144. Pittsburgh defense (PIT-DEF)

166 projected fantasy points in 2020

145. Harrison Butker (KC-K)

166 projected fantasy points in 2020

146. Jamaal Williams (GB-RB)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

147. A.J. Dillon (GB-RB)

82 projected fantasy points in 2020

148. Giovani Bernard (CIN-RB)

82 projected fantasy points in 2020

149. Justin Tucker (BAL-K)

160 projected fantasy points in 2020

150. Parris Campbell (IND-WR)

90 projected fantasy points in 2020

151. Wil Lutz (NO-K)

154 projected fantasy points in 2020

152. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI-WR)

89 projected fantasy points in 2020

153. Chris Thompson (JAC-RB)

79 projected fantasy points in 2020

154. Baltimore defense (BAL-DEF)

150 projected fantasy points in 2020

155. Buffalo defense (BUF-DEF)

149 projected fantasy points in 2020

156. Darrynton Evans (TEN-RB)

78 projected fantasy points in 2020

157. Dede Westbrook (JAC-WR)

87 projected fantasy points in 2020

158. New England defense (NE-DEF)

148 projected fantasy points in 2020

159. Mike Gesicki (MIA-TE)

140 projected fantasy points in 2020

160. James Washington (PIT-WR)

86 projected fantasy points in 2020

161. Denzel Mims (NYJ-WR)

86 projected fantasy points in 2020

162. Greg Zuerlein (DAL-K)

144 projected fantasy points in 2020

163. Chicago defense (CHI-DEF)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

164. Corey Davis (TEN-WR)

84 projected fantasy points in 2020

165. Matt Gay (TB-K)

141 projected fantasy points in 2020

166. Cole Beasley (BUF-WR)

84 projected fantasy points in 2020

167. Robbie Gould (SF-PK)

139 projected fantasy points in 2020

168. Randall Cobb (HOU-WR)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

169. Matt Prater (DET-K)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

170. Tyrell Williams (LV-WR)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

171. T.J. Hockenson (DET-TE)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

172. Jake Elliott (PHI-K)

136 projected fantasy points in 2020

173. New Orleans defense (NO-DEF)

138 projected fantasy points in 2020

174. Minnesota defense (MIN-DEF)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

175. Anthony McFarland Jr. (PIT-RB)

73 projected fantasy points in 2020

176. Kansas City defense (KC-DEF)

135 projected fantasy points in 2020

177. Carlos Hyde (SEA-RB)

72 projected fantasy points in 2020

178. Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU-K)

132 projected fantasy points in 2020

179. Tee Higgins (CIN-WR)

81 projected fantasy points in 2020

180. Los Angeles Rams defense (LAR-DEF)

133 projected fantasy points in 2020

181. Zane Gonzalez (ARI-K)

130 projected fantasy points in 2020

182. John Ross III (CIN-WR)

80 projected fantasy points in 2020

183. Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC-WR)

79 projected fantasy points in 2020

184. Denver defense (DEN-DEF)

130 projected fantasy points in 2020

185. Michael Badgley (LAC-K)

127 projected fantasy points in 2020

186. Damien Harris (NE-RB)

70 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Philadelphia defense (PHI-DEF)

127 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Mason Crosby (GB-K)

123 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Matthew Stafford (DET-QB)

273 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Noah Fant (DEN-TE)

133 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Mohamed Sanu Sr. (NE-WR)

78 projected fantasy points in 2020

192. Rashaad Penny (SEA-RB)

69 projected fantasy points in 2020

193. Joshua Kelley (LAC-RB)

69 projected fantasy points in 2020

194. Los Angeles Chargers defense (LAC-DEF)

125 projected fantasy points in 2020

195. Dan Bailey (MIN-K)

119 projected fantasy points in 2020

196. Tennessee defense (TEN-DEF)

123 projected fantasy points in 2020

197. Brandon McManus (DEN-K)

119 projected fantasy points in 2020

198. Kenny Stills (HOU-WR)

76 projected fantasy points in 2020

199. Steven Sims Jr. (WAS-WR)

76 projected fantasy points in 2020

200. Ryquell Armstead (JAC-RB)

68 projected fantasy points in 2020

Source:WP