Here’s how the underdogs can make it past the first round of the NBA playoffs

Since the current playoff format was adopted in 2014 the No. 1 seed has a 62-16 overall series record, losing in the first round just three times. The No. 2 seed is almost as good (58-18 overall series record, 25-1 in the first round) as is the No. 3 seed (34-18, 24-1), leaving little room for upsets. For an underdog to pull off another victory in the opening round of the 2020 NBA playoffs it is going to take a pristine game plan plus a little luck to see it through.

No. 1. Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic

Chance of an upset: 2 percent

Orlando got a glimpse of how the Bucks could be beat during the restart. Brooklyn, one of the biggest betting underdogs in almost three decades, stunned Milwaukee 119-116. The Nets buried 21 of 57 shots from behind the three-point line with Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot and Garrett Temple accounting for 10 of those with five each. Seven of the other nine members of the Nets hit at least one from behind the arc, too.

Unfortunately, the Magic struggled with three-point attempts during the regular season (34 percent, 25th), because hot-shooting seems to be the only way the Magic will slip by the Bucks.

No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Brooklyn Nets

Chance of an upset: 16 percent

The Nets knew they wouldn’t have key parts of their rotation for a playoff push. Kevin Durant had been out all season. Kyrie Irving, their top scorer (27.4 points per game), underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in March. Then, a few more players opt-outed out of the rest of the season due to the risks associated with the novel coronavirus including Spencer Dinwiddie, their second-best scorer and leader in assists, plus DeAndre Jordan, Brooklyn’s best rebounder (10.0 per game including two contested defensive rebounds per contest). Taurean Prince and Wilson Chandler decided to also stay home.

Now Brooklyn will have to hope the quintet of Garrett Temple, Joe Harris, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen and Rodions Kurucs can handle the workload. The quintet is also barely above water since entering the bubble (plus-0.8 net rating over 42 minutes played) and only Harris had a positive net rating on the court for the team before the restart.

No. 3 Boston Celtics vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers

Chance of an upset: 17 percent

The biggest priority for Philadelphia is not replacing the offensive output of Ben Simmons, who is out for the remainder of the year after suffering a knee injury. It is making sure they continue to stop Kemba Walker. Walker dismantled the 76ers in 2018-19 when he was with the Charlotte Hornets, averaging 30.3 points per game with 44 percent accuracy from behind the three-point line. He’s managed just 22.3 points per contest (37 percent from behind the arc) in three games, all losses for Boston, against Philadelphia during the regular season.

To be fair, Walker is averaging just 20 points per game against every other opponent, however his average game score (a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game) and box score plus/minus (an estimate of the points per 100 possessions that a player contributed above a league-average player) are both lower against the 76ers than they are for the season.

No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs No. 5 Miami Heat

Chance of an upset: 58 percent

The Heat must find a way to take the pressure off Jimmy Butler. Butler uses one out of every four possessions for Miami when he is on the court and is prone to relying on a jumper that consistently misses the mark. The 30-year-old is 80 for 262 (31 percent) with his jumper this season and just 15 for 73 when he uses it behind the three-point line (21 percent), leading to the worst effective field goal rate (33 percent) this season among players with at least as many jump shot attempts.

But who will it be? Goran Dragic is nursing a sprained left ankle. Bam Adebayo doesn’t create points in isolation (39th percentile) and he isn’t known for his late-game heroics (team has a minus-14 net rating when he is a part of clutch situations). Forward Derrick Jones Jr., this year’s slam dunk champion, was stretchered off the floor during his team’s final regular-season game against the Pacers on Friday. It is unknown if he will be ready for the start of the series on Tuesday night. That leaves rookie Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson as the main co-stars. Herro had 12 turnovers in the eight seeding games, including five in the loss to Milwaukee, but he is a long-range threat (39 percent from behind the arc). Same for Nunn (36 percent) and Robinson (45 percent). If that trio can be consistent with their three-point shooting Miami shouldn’t have much trouble moving on.

No. 1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers or Memphis Grizzlies

Chance of an upset: 11 for Portland, 3 percent for Memphis

LeBron James and the Lakers have gone cold since the restart and any upset opportunity must include keeping them from heating up. The team ranks second-to-last in net rating (minus-5.6) and dead last for points per possession (103.0) since entering the bubble, largely due to knocking down a mere 28 percent of their three-point attempts. The Lakers were at least average behind the arc (35 percent, 18th) during the regular season before the suspension of play in March. If they stay cold, that’s the best way for either of these teams to pull the upset.

No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks

Chance of an upset: 38 percent

Dallas has to force the Clippers to commit more mistakes. You would expect a foursome like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris Sr., with just 35 minutes played together and a minus-4.4 net rating to have some chemistry issues that can be exploited, yet the Mavericks have struggled to make it happen. Los Angeles is averaging 10 turnovers a game against Dallas this season and over 14 per game against every other opponent. In the lone bubble game against these two teams, the Clippers committed just six turnovers.

No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Utah Jazz

Chance of an upset: 36 percent

Coach Quin Snyder has seldom seen his squad engaged for four full quarters. During the regular season the Jazz flagged in the second and fourth quarters and that has gotten worse since entering the bubble. For example, the team outscored opponents by 3.9 points per 100 possessions only to see that fall to almost even in the second period during the regular season. Since the restart Utah is only outscoring opponents during the second quarter. The other three are woefully lopsided.

No. 4 Houston Rockets vs. No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder

Chance of an upset: 25 percent

Second-chance points could play a role in deciding if the Thunder flame out in the first round for a fourth straight year or make it past one of the most dangerous teams in the postseason.

Since Houston adopted its small-ball lineup full time — they haven’t had anyone getting regular minutes taller than 6-foot-8 since February — the Rockets rank last in grabbing offensive rebounds (21 percent). Oklahoma City wasn’t much better at rebounding off the offensive glass (23 percent) during the regular season but they have stepped it up since the restart, grabbing 25 percent of their misses since August. Houston, on the other hand, is grabbing less than 17 percent of their misses since entering the bubble.