How Barry Trotz and the Islanders are dominating the Capitals

Trotz has been masterful at making sure the Islanders play structured, defensive hockey, a hallmark of this squad since his arrival after leaving the Cup-winning Caps in 2018. New York has allowed the second-lowest rate of shots on net and the fifth-lowest rate of dangerous scoring chances (those occurring in areas such as the slot and the crease) at even strength in the playoffs. The results against Washington are even better than those against the Islanders’ first postseason opponent, the Florida Panthers.

For example, the Panthers generated more scoring chances than the Islanders (95 to 88) but New York produced more in the high-danger areas, 34 to 29. Trotz has since seen his group generate more total shot attempts than Washington at even strength in every game of the series (140 to 112 overall) and that lead remains when you eliminate score effects. After all, a team that trails is more likely to fire pucks on net, while those with a lead tend to focus more on defense to preserve their lead. Scoring chances have also been lopsided (69 to 49), including those labeled as high-danger chances (35 to 16). No wonder the Capitals have been outscored 8-2 at even strength, with seven of the Islanders’ even-strength goals occurring in the crease.

In Game 1 — technically a home game for Washington, allowing Todd Reirden the last change during faceoffs — the Capitals were outshot 20 to 11 and outscored 3-0 at even strength. Washington’s top line of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson was held scoreless and limited to one high-danger chance. Washington’s trio of Carl Hagelin, Travis Boyd and Ilya Kovalchuk weren’t even able to generate a scoring chance. Same for when Kuznetsov centered Jakub Vrana and T.J. Oshie after Backstrom left with the concussion.

In Game 2, also considered a home game for Washington, Reirden’s top line paid dividends (two goals, both by Ovechkin) but the rest of his line combos gave up a whopping 13 chances in the slot or crease during even strength with just three of their own. In addition, three even-strength goals were scored against the Lars Eller-centered second line.

In Game 3 Reirden’s changes to the lineup — defensemen Michal Kempny and Jonas Siegenthaler plus center Travis Boyd were healthy scratches in favor of Radko Gudas, Martin Fehervary and Brian Pinho — did nothing for the team. Pinho, Fehervary and Gudas saw a collective deficit in scoring chances (14 to 8) and high-danger scoring chances (4-0) with Pinho on the ice for a goal against. Trotz, with last change, held Washington to zero goals at even strength.

“We got to make sure we are winning some draws in the [offensive] zone and get sustained pressure,” Carl Hagelin said after the Game 3 loss. “It has got to start with that, holding on to pucks in the o-zone and feeling comfortable being in the o-zone.”

2020 NHL playoffs (as of Aug. 17)

Total shot attempts

Shots on goal

Scoring chances

High-danger scoring chances

Even strength only

Credit Trotz for making that so difficult. His top defensive pair, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, has held Reirden’s top line of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson to two even-strength goals in the series. New York’s second pair, Devon Toews and Scott Mayfield, has allowed Washington’s second line five shots on net and zero goals. Not having top center Nicklas Backstrom (he entered the league’s concussion protocol on Sunday) certainly hurts Washington’s ability to score, but it’s hard to use that as an excuse when Ovechkin led the league in goals (48) and the team scored the third-highest rate of goals at even strength during the regular season.

Plus, Trotz isn’t the only former member of the Capitals haunting this team. Islanders goaltender Semyon Varlamov, a first-round pick by Washington in 2006, has been solid in net. The 32-year-old has stopped 69 of the 74 shots faced in this series (.932 save percentage) including 16 of 20 attempts from the slot or the crease. Braden Holtby, meanwhile, has struggled, stopping just 82 of 92 shots (.891) and 25 of 32 high-danger chances. Holtby did make 32 saves in Game 3.

“Obviously our backs are against the wall, but it starts with one,” Wilson said. “I expect guys to step up here and persevere through this. We’ve got a little bit of adversity, and it’s time to pull together or we’ll be out. So it is what it is.”

A “little bit of adversity” is underselling Washington predicament. Only one team out of 57, the 2014 Los Angeles Kings, have won a first-round series after facing a 3-0 series deficit. Just four teams in the history of the NHL have made a comeback after falling behind 3-0, and just two of those occurred this century.

Source:WP