NFL picks: Division titles, wild-card teams, conference champions and Super Bowl winner

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

This might be the best divisional race. Even though the Ravens are coming off a 14-win season, there may not be much of a drop-off in their win total. They beat teams by an average margin of 33-18, and they might have gotten better on defense with a strong draft and the additions of linemen Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe. Plus, they play the NFL’s easiest schedule based on last year’s records.

But don’t sleep on the Steelers. As long as Ben Roethlisberger can play 16 games, they have a chance to stay right with the Ravens. Pittsburgh averaged just 18 points with Roethlisberger sidelined most of last season by an elbow injury, but he appears to be back at close to 100 percent. His return will be worth three of four wins, and with a defense that only allowed 19 points per game a year ago, the Steelers will challenge for the division title — and the Cleveland Browns will be in the playoff mix as well.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been building a division-winning roster for the past three years, and their trade for Stefon Diggs gives them one of the NFL’s best receiving trios with John Brown and Cole Beasley. The pressure will be on Josh Allen, who has led an offense that has averaged less than 20 points since he became the starting quarterback, but he should be able to respond. Given the strength of Buffalo’s defense, getting the offense to 22 or 23 points per game should be enough for 10 wins.

That’ll be a tough mark for the New England Patriots to catch. Sure, Bill Belichick finds ways to win, and Cam Newton replacing Tom Brady gives this team a chance. But you can’t lose your top four linebackers, two of your top three safeties, right tackle Marcus Cannon and be even weaker at tight end than last year and not have some drop-off.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

Though this will be a close three-team race, the Colts should have the slight edge after signing Philip Rivers to a one-year, $25 million contract. It’s a great situation for Rivers, working with his former offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Frank Reich, and playing behind the best offensive line he has been paired with during his 17-year career. He has a one-two punch at running back (Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor), and Michael Pittman is a good, young wide receiver to work opposite T.Y. Hilton.

But this will be a tight race. The Tennessee Titans are a nine- or 10-win team with a stingy defense, which got a boost with the Jadeveon Clowney signing, and a great running offense. The Houston Texans are loaded on offense with Deshaun Watson, but they won’t win the division if they give up the 24 points per game they surrendered in 2019.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC wild-card teams: Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns

The Titans are a legitimate playoff team that will push the Colts for the division title. The Broncos can get to nine wins if Drew Lock clicks with a young, talented receiver trio (Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler). That plus running backs Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay will make them the second-best offense in the AFC West.

The Browns have six Pro Bowl players on offense and four on defense, and with Kevin Stefanski as coach, they won’t underachieve like as did last year.

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

Thanks to General Manager Rick Spielman’s work this offseason, the Vikings might have regained the edge by a game or a tiebreaker in the NFC North. He knew the defense was going to make major sacrifices because of salary cap constraints — Minnesota lost defensive end Everson Griffen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph and its top three cornerbacks — but the trade for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue has the Vikings positioned to win the division. They still have five Pro Bowl players on defense and an offense that outscored the 13-win Green Bay Packers last year.

Green Bay could be due for a drop-off after winning several close game a season ago against a favorable schedule. Despite the presence of Aaron Rodgers, the offense has some question marks.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are one of the league’s most talented teams, with 15 players on the roster who have been to the Pro Bowl, and they scored big in the draft by landing CeeDee Lamb to join fellow wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Dak Prescott throws for 5,000 yards.

With the New York Giants and the Washington Football Team rebuilding, this should be a two-team race between the Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. What’s tough for both teams is that they have to play the AFC North and NFC West, and the winner will probably be the team that does best in non-division games. The Cowboys will take it, and don’t be surprised if they get to 11 wins.

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

As much as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have improved into a playoff-caliber team with the additions of Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette, the Saints have perhaps the best roster in the NFL. They have 15 players who have been to the Pro Bowl, including Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Cameron Jordan.

What’s interesting about this division is how all three of its top contenders are working within a short-term window. The Saints project to be hit hard by the expected reduction in next year’s salary cap, and it will be hard to keep their stellar 2017 draft class of Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Marcus Lattimore and Marcus Williams together. The Bucs have a two-year window to win with the 43-year old Brady. The Atlanta Falcons are in a tough cap situation next year and have a veteran roster.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks came close to winning the division last year, and this offseason they improved in the secondary, at linebacker, along the offensive line and at wide receiver. The 49ers are still a major threat after nearly winning last season’s Super Bowl, but the defensive line won’t be as good without DeForest Buckner, and injuries at wide receiver are a concern.

The edge goes to Seattle because it has Russell Wilson, who could lead the highest-scoring offense during his time with the Seahawks.

NFC wild-card teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers

Pairing Brady with an excellent group of skill-position players might not overtake the Saints, but it should be good enough for 11 wins and a playoff berth for the Bucs. The 49ers will likewise get to 11 wins but fall just short of Seattle. The Packers, who didn’t improve their receiving corps and downgraded at a couple of other positions, should still earn a postseason bid.

AFC Championship: Chiefs over Ravens

These are two very good teams, but the Chiefs have too much offensive firepower for the Ravens to handle.

NFC Championship: Saints over Seahawks

Wilson has always been a big fan of Brees, but the older QB has the edge in terms of supporting cast. Home-field advantage might come into play as well.

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Saints

Mahomes is becoming the next Brady and Reid the next Belichick as Kansas City wins two in a row.

Source:WP