College football winners and losers: Pac-12 playoff hopes disappear with Oregon’s loss

In short, Oregon State’s 41-38 triumph was a delight, unless you were the Ducks. And maybe the Pac-12 office.

Oregon (3-1) was widely viewed as the best team the Pac-12 had to offer entering the season. And at the start of October. And at the start of November. The Pac-12’s belated start meant its playoff hopes were going to ride heavily on whether somebody — and “somebody” was assumed to be Oregon — would bash everyone in its way.

Those hopes took a theoretical hit during the playoff’s rankings infomercial Tuesday. Oregon checked in at No. 15, though let’s be clear: Those rankings are variable and mean nothing until the final week of the season.

Oregon took a much more direct hit Friday. They’re not headed to the playoff. They’ll win the Pac-12 North with defeats of California and Washington the next two weeks, and probably go to the Fiesta Bowl if they win the league.

And as for the rest of the Pac-12? It has three unbeatens left. Southern California (3-0) barely escaped Arizona and Arizona State and had its game this week against Colorado (2-0) canceled. The Buffaloes already had one game axed this month and scrambled to line up San Diego State. And Washington (2-0) has had a cancellation and, fair or not, seems like an afterthought nationally.

The same is true of the Pac-12 itself, which needs its best team to go undefeated in style and without virus hiccups. That hasn’t happened. The Pac-12 might provide some fun times, but for the fourth year in a row, the Left Coast’s power conference is almost certainly getting shut out of the playoff.

Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish put on a stellar defensive display in a 31-17 victory at North Carolina, allowing the Tar Heels just 151 total yards and three points over the final three quarters.

North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell? Bottled up to a manageable 211 yards and a touchdown through the air.

Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, the Tar Heels’ touchdown twins in the backfield? They combined for 19 carries and 85 yards and no trips to the end zone.

Notre Dame (9-0, 8-0 ACC) is a victory away from sealing a place in the ACC title game, and it will almost surely clinch a berth next week at home against Syracuse. Just this month, it has won with offense (against Clemson) and defense (against North Carolina). It is experienced, tested and not to be trifled with.

And with any two more wins (against Syracuse, at Wake Forest and an ACC title game against Clemson or maybe Miami), the Irish should be playoff-bound for the second time in three years.

Oregon State (and especially Jermar Jefferson). First, the basics on the Beavers (2-2). They trailed by 12 early in the fourth quarter, scored two touchdowns in 63 seconds, then lost the lead before Chance Nolan — called on to take a fourth-and-goal snap perhaps two inches from the end zone when quarterback Tristan Gebbia was injured — plunged in with 33 seconds left to claim a 41-38 victory.

It’s only the second victory in 13 years in the rivalry formerly known as the Civil War, and it came against an Oregon team perceived to be good (which the Ducks most certainly weren’t while going 4-8 in 2016, the last time Oregon State knocked them off).

Now on to Jefferson, who has emerged as the best reason to stay up late watching Pac-12 football this season. He rushed for three touchdowns in the Beavers’ opening loss to Washington State, rumbled for 196 yards (on 10.9 yards a carry) last week against California and steamrolled Oregon for a rivalry-record 226 yards on Friday.

Jefferson is up to 675 rushing yards in four games, putting him on pace for a 1,000-yard campaign over a six-game regular season. He may not win the Pac-12’s player of the year award if that winds up in “best player on the best team” territory, but he’d be a fine choice based on his output to date and belongs in the conversation after roasting the Ducks.

Iowa State. Yes, the same team that looked so lost in its opening setback against Louisiana-Lafayette solidified its place in the Big 12 catbird seat with a 23-20 defeat of Texas. There are ways the Cyclones (7-2, 7-1 Big 12) could get bumped out of the conference title game, but it involves going deep into the tiebreakers.

That might not be necessary, since an Iowa State win (over West Virginia), an Oklahoma loss (to Baylor or West Virginia) or an Oklahoma State loss (to Texas Tech, Texas Christian or Baylor) makes things clear-cut.

But never mind the details for the moment. Iowa State has now won at least seven games in four consecutive seasons, a program first. It is on the edge of a Big 12 title game appearance, which would be a program first. It has defeated Oklahoma and Texas this season, another program first.

Coach Matt Campbell has created at least a glimmer of staying power in Ames, a noteworthy accomplishment at a school that had back-to-back winning seasons just twice in the 37 years before Campbell took over in 2016. Whether the Cyclones finish the job and win their first conference title since 1912 is almost beside the point. They’ve already taken another step forward in 2020.

Iowa. Won its sixth in a row against Nebraska, a 26-20 decision behind four Keith Duncan field goals. And if you’re the Hawkeyes (4-2), that’s something to clap about.

Ohio State. The Buckeyes (3-0) didn’t technically lose, because they didn’t play. A coronavirus outbreak within their program led to the cancellation of Saturday’s game against Illinois, which leads to a far more serious conundrum than missing out on a choose-your-own-score rout.

The Big Ten’s rules for the season require a team to compete in no fewer than two games less than the average played in the league or else be ineligible for the conference title game. Coupled with Ohio State having its game against Maryland wiped out, the Buckeyes have no more wiggle room on that front unless the average number of games in the league is reduced to seven per team.

Is the Big Ten keeping Ohio State on the shelf in lieu of, say, Indiana or Maryland if it ends up at 5-0? And would the playoff committee — which, given the conditions, is more likely than ever this season to manufacture an explanation of its process to fit its conclusions rather than reach conclusions that flow from how it explains its process — leave such a team outside the semifinals.

It’s all moot if Ohio State rolls through Michigan State, Michigan and the Big Ten West champ (probably Northwestern) in the next three weeks. But it’s not a given.

California special teams. Did football’s third phase cost the Golden Bears the Big Game? You decide.

California (0-3) muffed a punt in the second quarter, setting up Stanford’s three-play, 16-yard touchdown drive. The Golden Bears had a 32-yard field goal blocked just before halftime, and an extra point blocked after pulling within 24-23 with 58 seconds to go. The Cardinal then ran out the clock after a failed onside kick.

So, yes, special teams were a disaster as Stanford (1-2) beat its Bay Area rival for the 10th time in 11 years.

Texas. No Big 12 title for you this year, Longhorns (assuming Oklahoma manages at least a split of its final two games against Baylor and West Virginia). That’s 11 seasons and counting without a league title for Texas (5-3, 4-3), which fell 23-20 to Iowa State for its first home loss to the Cyclones since 2010.