With Josh Bell, a complicated Nats puzzle is snapping into place, and it looks mighty fine

Every baseball offseason is a gigantic puzzle. Which teams need what pieces? How many teams are in the spend-big game, and how many will sit it out? This winter, because of the pandemic’s impact as well as a new CBA that will arrive after the season, many will be “out.”

Also, often overlooked: Is there a team that does not need any of the top free agents — players who will suck $500 million to $700 million out of the auction marketplace — because that team is adequately stocked at those positions?

Such a club — this winter it may be the Nats — can luck into a big haul of very good free agents who fit perfectly.

All free agent rankings are arbitrary. But MLB.com writers are not dumb. The Nats do not need any of the top eight free agents on their list, although J.T. Realmuto (No. 1) and Marcell Ozuna (No. 5), would be embraced in D.C.

In fact, only two of the site’s top 25 free agents are an obvious fit for the Nats — left fielder Michael Brantley (No. 9) and third baseman Justin Turner (No. 10). Because of their ages, 33 and 36, they look like two-year-deal guys.

If you are a hot stove league fanatic like me, your head swims at the possibilities for General Manager Mike Rizzo, who already has struck what may be a stunning steal of a deal for Bell. Before an off-year in the mini pandemic season (.226), Bell had 37 homers, 116 RBI and a .936 on-base-plus-slugging percentage as a 2019 all-star.

Bell is a classy, face-of-the-franchise type who is already mourned at the personal level in Pittsburgh. His career OPS is almost a duplicate of Ryan Zimmerman’s, and so is his smart, clubhouse-binding, example-setting manner.

Once, Bell told the Athletic writer Andy McCullough that Matt Chapman played as if he were from Jupiter. Asked why, Bell sighed and replied, “Well, obviously, if you’re born on a place with more gravity and you’re transported to a lighter gravity, then everything is easier for you.”

Because Bell’s two years of team control come at a sane cost (about $7 million this season) and because few thought the Nats’ solution at first base would be a young, durable switch hitter, suddenly many new options opened.

The Nats are $46.5 million under the competitive balance tax of $210 million. Because they were under the tax last year and thus “reset” any penalties, the extra cost of busting the limit in 2021 would be small.

But they don’t have to go that high. Look what, in theory, they could add for $40 million or less.

The Nats need a hard-hitting corner outfielder to fill out the middle of an order that now has Trea Turner (.335), Juan Soto (.351) and Bell. A back-end reliever and a solid back of the rotation starter are required. That’s it.

In a market full of outfielders, Brantley, a career .300 hitter, may get closer to $15 million a year than $20 million. He’s been a mid-order bat on World Series teams in Cleveland and Houston.

After that, the quality players from outside that top 25 who are all available for less than $9 million a year include desirable relievers such as lefty Brad Hand (2.70 ERA the past five years), ex-Nat Blake Treinen, Kirby Yates, Justin Wilson and more.

Because of the high-end starters on the market, led by Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and James Paxton, there is no way the Nats can’t land Mike Fiers (33-15, 3.85 ERA the past three years) if they want him.

There has seldom been a better year to take a flier on a bargain-bin former ace — Corey Kluber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta or Cole Hamels — or all-stars such as José Quintana or Chris Archer.

A haul of Brantley, Hand, Fiers and Kluber would probably cost $40 million in 2021, at most.

If you want, you can substitute the name of Turner, the Dodgers’ leader and mid-order menace, for a $16 million price similar to Brantley’s. Then, maybe, young Carter Kieboom must wait a year in the minors. Worry about such nice problems if they happen.

The best aspect of the Nats’ offseason is its optionality. Rizzo always says he has Plan A, then Plans B and C. This winter, he might need the whole alphabet.

In theory, the Nats could afford Ozuna, the NL home run champion, for only a few million more than Brantley. But having the poor defense of Ozuna in left with Bell (12 errors per 150 games, with an erratic throwing arm) at first might get ugly.

Of course, there is one Happy New Year possibility that you know I have been holding back. If Realmuto, the all-star catcher and top-rated free agent, wants to sign in D.C., then, please, oblige him, even at $25 million a year for five years, and forget about that high-quality corner outfielder.

In that corner outfield spot, instead consider spunky lefty-hitting Nat Andrew Stevenson, a poor man’s Adam Eaton, in a platoon with an easy-to-find 250-at-bat right-handed bat. MLB’s cheapest commodity is always the outfielder who can hit only southpaws.

With the addition of Bell, it is easy to overlook how close the Nats are to a roster that is solid-to-excellent everywhere. Yes, one more big bat — probably out of the Brantley, Justin Turner, Ozuna and Realmuto group — is needed. But if you do assemble a Big Four in the heart of the order, with Starlin Castro (second base), Victor Robles (center field), Kieboom and catcher Yan Gomes complementing them, that’s a lot of offense.

The Nats’ bullpen, even with Daniel Hudson, Will Harris, Tanner Rainey and Wander Suero, needs one more late-inning option. Sean Doolittle, at a discount for lack of durability, is always welcome back, too.

Until Rizzo traded for Bell, the Nats’ jigsaw puzzle was one of those scary 1,000-piece monstrosities that is so complex you want to scream, “Where do I start?”

But adding Bell removed the need for the first base juggling act involving Eric Thames, utility insurance policy Asdrúbal Cabrera and Zimmerman. If there had been a full season in 2020, that group and the since-retired Howie Kendrick would have cost a combined $14.75 million.

Bell will cost half of that. Call it “general managing.”

Now the rest of the offseason seems manageable, though always difficult.

Column 1: a big bat, one of Brantley, Turner or Ozuna. Column 2: a reliever, one of Hand, Treinen or back-from-bone-chips Yates. Column 3: a fifth starter, whether Fiers or someone else. Toss in a Realmuto or George Springer fantasy for kicks.

Have fun doing your own New Year’s mixing and matching. The Nats sure will.