The World Cup’s 32 teams have started their third group-stage games, and the scenarios for advancement are now clear.
World Cup tiebreakers and advancement scenarios, explained
Two teams from all eight groups advance and are then slotted into a 16-team knockout bracket that will determine the participants in the Dec. 18 final.
Here’s how the teams are ranked in the groups, as explained by FIFA’s 2022 World Cup regulations:
1. Greatest number of points from three group matches (each team gets three points for a win and one for a draw).
2. Goal difference in all group matches.
3. Goals scored in all group matches.
And if two or more teams still are tied after that? We go to:
1. Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.
2. Goal difference from the group matches between the teams concerned.
3. Goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned.
4. Greater number of points obtained regarding fair play conduct (yellow cards = minus-1; indirect red card, as a result of a second yellow card = minus-3, direct red card = minus-4, yellow card and direct red = minus-5, with only one of the deductions applied to a player in a single game).
And if, by some quirk, there’s still a tie?
Then there will be a drawing of lots by FIFA’s Organizing Committee.
Here are the standings for every group, and the scenarios for the groups that have completed two games. An x- denotes a team that has clinched advancement. A y- denotes a team that has clinched first place in a group. A z-denotes a team that has been eliminated from advancing.
Group A standings and scenarios
Netherlands: The group favorite finished first in Group A.
Senegal: After an opening loss to the Netherlands, the champions of Africa rallied to finish second in the group.
Ecuador: Ecuador started with a win over Qatar but came up short of advancement.
Qatar: The host nation was the first team eliminated.
Group B standings and scenarios
England: The group favorite would advance to the knockout round with a win or draw against Wales on Tuesday. England could still advance with a loss to Wales, depending on the score and other results. England would win the group with a win, or with a draw and an Iran-U.S. draw, among other scenarios. It’s even possible England could win the group with a loss, depending on other results.
Iran: Iran would advance to the knockout round with a win over the United States on Tuesday, or with a draw against the United States and an England win or draw against Wales. Iran would win the group with a win and an England loss or draw against Wales. Iran would be eliminated with a loss to the United States.
United States: The Americans would advance to the knockout round with a win over Iran on Tuesday. They would be eliminated with a loss or draw against Iran. They could still win the group with a win over Iran, although it would probably require an England loss to Wales.
Wales: Wales will be eliminated with a loss or a draw against England. To have a realistic shot, the Welsh need to beat England and have the Iran-United States game end in a draw.
Group C standings and scenarios
Poland: Poland would advance to the knockout round with a win or draw against Argentina on Wednesday. It also could advance with a loss in several scenarios. Poland would still advance with a loss if Mexico and Saudi Arabia play to a draw, as long as Poland loses by two or fewer goals, or if it loses by three goals and maintains the goals for tiebreaker over the Saudis. Poland would also advance with a loss to Argentina and a Mexico win over Saudi Arabia, as long as Mexico doesn’t make up a four-goal deficit in goal differential on Wednesday. Poland would win the group with a win, or with a draw and a Saudi Arabia draw or loss. Poland would be eliminated with a loss to Argentina and a Saudi Arabia win over Mexico.
Argentina: Argentina would advance to the knockout round with a win against Poland on Wednesday. It would also advance with a draw with Poland, if Saudi Arabia and Mexico also draw. Argentina would also advance with a draw against Poland if Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by fewer than three goals. If Argentina draws with Poland and Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by three goals, additional tiebreakers would come into play. Argentina would win the group with a win over Poland, as long as Saudi Arabia doesn’t also beat Mexico and make up a two-goal deficit in goal differential with Argentina. Argentina would be eliminated with a loss against Poland or with a draw against Poland plus a Saudi Arabia win over Mexico, or a draw against Poland plus a Mexico win over Saudi Arabia by more than three goals.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia would advance to the knockout round with a win against Mexico on Wednesday, or a draw with Mexico plus a Poland win over Argentina. It could also advance with a draw plus an Argentina win by four or more goals over Poland, or an Argentina win by three goals over Poland once additional tiebreakers come into play. Saudi Arabia would win the group with a win over Mexico and if Poland and Argentina draw, or if Saudi Arabia and Argentina both win and Saudi Arabia makes up a two-goal deficit in goal differential with Argentina. Saudi Arabia would be eliminated with loss against Mexico, or a draw with Mexico plus an Argentina-Poland draw, or a draw plus an Argentina win if it fails to win the tiebreakers outlined above.
Mexico: Mexico would be eliminated with a loss or a draw against Saudi Arabia. Mexico would advance to the knockout round with a win over Saudi Arabia and a Poland win over Argentina. Mexico could also advance with a win over Saudi Arabia, plus an Argentina-Poland draw, if it wins by more than three goals. Mexico could also advance with a win over Saudi Arabia, plus an Argentina win over Poland, if Mexico makes up a four-goal deficit in goal differential with Poland.
Group D standings and scenarios
France: France has clinched a spot in the knockout round. The defending champions will finish atop the group with a win or a draw against Tunisia on Wednesday, or with an Australia loss or draw against Denmark. Even if France loses and Australia wins, Australia would need to make up six goals of goal differential to knock France out of the top spot.
Australia: Australia will advance to the knockout round with a win over Denmark, or with a draw and a Tunisia loss or draw against France. If Australia draws and Tunisia wins, Tunisia would move on thanks to a better goal differential. Australia would be eliminated with a loss.
Denmark: Denmark must win Wednesday against Australia to have a chance to advance to the knockout round. If Denmark wins, it would be through with a Tunisia loss or draw against France. If Denmark and Tunisia both win, additional tiebreakers would be needed. Denmark and Tunisia enter the final group stage games with an identical goal differential, but Denmark has scored one additional goal so far. Denmark would be eliminated with a loss or draw.
Tunisia: Tunisia must win Wednesday against France to have a chance to advance to the knockout round. If Tunisia wins, it would advance if the Australia-Denmark game ends in a draw. If Tunisia wins and Denmark wins, additional tiebreakers would be needed (see Denmark above). Tunisia would be eliminated with a loss or draw, or if Australia beats Denmark.
Group E standings and scenarios
Spain: Spain will advance to the knockout round with a win or a draw Thursday against Japan. It will also advance with a loss to Japan and a draw between Costa Rica and Germany. It could also advance with a loss and a Germany win over Costa Rica, as long as it doesn’t lose its eight-goal advantage in goal differential over Germany. Spain will win the group with a win, or with a draw and a Costa Rica loss or draw. Spain will be eliminated with a loss to Japan and a Costa Rica win over Germany.
Japan: Japan will advance to the knockout round with a win over Spain on Thursday. It will also advance with a draw against Spain and a draw between Costa Rica and Germany. It could also advance with a draw against Spain if Germany beats Costa Rica by one goal and Japan scores more goals than Germany on Thursday. Japan will win the group with a win against Spain and a Costa Rica loss or draw, or a win and a Costa Rica win that doesn’t make up a six-goal disadvantage in goal differential. Japan will be eliminated with a loss against Spain, or with a draw plus a Costa Rica win, or a draw plus a Germany win that gives Germany the advantage in the tiebreakers mentioned above.
Costa Rica: Costa Rica will advance to the knockout round with a win over Germany on Thursday. It will also advance with a draw against Germany and a Spain win over Japan. Costa Rica will win the group with a win over Germany and a draw between Spain and Japan. Costa Rica will be eliminated with a loss to Germany, or with a draw and a Japan win or draw.
Germany: Germany must beat Costa Rica on Thursday to have a chance to advance to the knockout round. Germany would advance with a win over Costa Rica and a Spain win over Japan, or a win by more than one goal plus a Spain and Japan draw. If Germany wins by exactly one goal and Spain and Japan draw, Germany would need to score more goals than Japan on Thursday to advance. If Germany beats Costa Rica and Japan beats Spain, Germany would need to make up an eight-goal disadvantage in goal differential against Spain to advance. Germany will be eliminated with a draw or a loss against Costa Rica.
Group F standings and scenarios
Croatia: Croatia will advance to the knockout round with a win or a draw Thursday against Belgium. If Croatia loses to Belgium, it could still advance to the knockout round if Canada beats Morocco on Thursday and Croatia maintains its one-goal advantage in goal differential over Morocco. Croatia will win the group with a win over Belgium and a Morocco loss or draw against Canada, or a win and a Morocco win if Croatia maintains its tiebreaker advantage. Croatia can also win the group with a draw and a Morocco loss or draw. Croatia will be eliminated with a loss and a Morocco win or draw.
Morocco: Morocco will advance to the knockout round with a win or a draw Thursday against Canada. If Morocco loses to Canada, it would still advance with a Croatia win over Belgium, or with a Croatia-Belgium draw if Morocco loses by fewer than three goals. If Morocco loses by exactly three goals and Belgium and Croatia draw, additional tiebreakers would come into play. Morocco could also advance with a loss if Belgium beats Croatia and Morocco is able to overcome its one-goal disadvantage in goal differential. Morocco would win the group with a win and a Croatia loss or draw, or a win and a Croatia win if Morocco overcomes its tiebreaker disadvantage. Morocco would be eliminated with a loss and a Belgium win over Croatia, unless Morocco overcomes its tiebreaker disadvantage against Croatia.
Belgium: Belgium will advance to the knockout round with a win over Croatia on Thursday. It could also advance with a draw if Canada beats Morocco by more than three goals. If Belgium draws and Canada beats Morocco by exactly three goals, additional tiebreakers would come into play. Belgium will win the group with a win over Croatia and a Morocco loss or draw against Canada. Belgium will be eliminated with a loss to Croatia, or a draw and a Morocco win, draw or loss by two goals or fewer.
Canada: Canada cannot advance to the knockout round.
Group G standings and scenarios
Brazil: Brazil has clinched a spot in the knockout round. It will finish atop the group with a win or draw against Cameroon on Friday, or with a Serbia win or draw against Switzerland. If Brazil loses to Cameroon and Switzerland defeats Serbia, Brazil still could finish atop the group if it maintains its advantage in goal differential over Switzerland.
Switzerland: Switzerland will clinch a spot in the knockout round with a win over Serbia on Friday; with a draw combined with a Brazil win over Cameroon, or with a draw combined with a Brazil-Cameroon draw. If Switzerland ties Serbia and Cameroon defeats Brazil by more than one goal, Switzerland will be eliminated because its goal differential would be worse than Cameroon’s. If Switzerland ties Serbia and Cameroon defeats Brazil by exactly one goal, Switzerland would need to overcome its goals-scored deficit to Cameroon. Switzerland will be eliminated with a loss to Serbia.
Cameroon: Cameroon will clinch a spot in the knockout round with a win over Brazil combined with a Serbia win over Switzerland, provided Cameroon maintains its edge over Serbia in goal differential. Cameroon also will advance to the knockout round with a win of at least two goals over Brazil combined with a Switzerland-Serbia draw. If Cameroon beats Brazil by one goal and Serbia and Switzerland draw, further tiebreakers will come into play. Cameroon will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Brazil.
Serbia: Serbia will advance to the knockout round with a win over Switzerland combined with a Brazil win or draw against Cameroon. Should Serbia and Cameroon win on Friday, Serbia would need to overcome its one-goal deficit in goal differential to Cameroon. Serbia will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Switzerland.
Group H standings and scenarios
Portugal: Portugal has clinched a spot in the knockout round. It will finish atop the group with a win or draw against South Korea on Friday, or with a Uruguay win or draw against Ghana. If Portugal loses to South Korea and Ghana defeats Uruguay, Portugal could still finish atop the group if it maintains its goal-differential advantage over Ghana.
Ghana: Ghana will clinch a spot in the knockout round with a win over Uruguay on Friday; with a draw combined with a Portugal win over South Korea; or with a draw combined with a Portugal-South Korea draw. If Ghana ties Uruguay and South Korea defeats Portugal by more than one goal, Ghana will be eliminated because its goal differential would be worse than South Korea’s. If Ghana ties Uruguay and South Korea defeats Portugal by exactly one goal, the tie will be broken based on total goals scored (Ghana leads, 5-2, after two matches). Ghana will be eliminated with a loss to Uruguay.
South Korea: South Korea will clinch a spot in the knockout round with a win over Portugal combined with a Uruguay win over Ghana, provided that South Korea maintains its edge over Uruguay in goal differential. South Korea also will advance to the knockout round with a win of at least two goals over Portugal combined with a Ghana-Uruguay draw. If South Korea defeats Portugal by one goal and Ghana and Uruguay draw, further tiebreakers will come into play. South Korea will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Portugal.
Uruguay: Uruguay will clinch a spot in the knockout round with a win over Ghana combined with a Portugal win or draw against South Korea. Should Uruguay and South Korea win on Friday, Uruguay would need to overcome its one-goal deficit in goal differential to South Korea. Uruguay will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Ghana.
Source: WP
