2024 Senate forecast spells tough road for Democrats to keep slim majority

Democrats face a tough election cycle in 2024 in order to hold on to their one-seat majority in the upper chamber as they’ll have to defend more than double the number of seats than Republicans.

Democrats hold 23 seats that will be up for grabs, including three toss-ups and another five that are considered competitive, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s first Senate analysis of the cycle released Tuesday.

The Senate is currently split 51-49, giving Democrats a one-seat edge.

“In order to win back the majority, Republicans need to win back just one seat if their party regains the White House, or two if they don’t. That seems eminently doable given the map, but as the GOP should have learned last November, candidate quality still counts,” said Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor.

The toss-up races include Democrats Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, as well as independent Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who caucuses with Democrats.

The Lean Democrat seats, which are considered competitive, include Democrats Jon Tester of Montana, Jackie Rosen of Nevada, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, who is retiring.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were all won by President Biden by fewer than 3 percentage points but won by former President Donald Trump in 2016.

Ohio went for Mr. Trump by single digits but is no longer considered a swing state. Montana and West Virginia went heavily for Mr. Trump by double digits.

No incumbent Republicans hold seats that are currently considered competitive.