Who should you take with the No. 1 fantasy baseball pick? Not Ronald Acuña Jr.
Atlanta Braves left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Major League Baseball is set to begin a truncated season on July 23, giving us little time to prepare for the upcoming fantasy campaign. Don’t worry, we’re here to help.
As you develop your draft strategy, you will see many familiar names near the top of the list. Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger, the reigning MVPs, plus Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich and Gerrit Cole will surely be among the first names called out, as will Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s the No. 1 player on Yahoo’s draft board and Sports Illustrated calls him “the clear-cut, no-brainer first pick.” The Sporting News has him No. 1, too, giving Acuña a bit of momentum to be the first player selected in 2020. Don’t get sucked into the hype.
I know that isn’t easy. Acuña was named rookie of the year in 2018 and followed that up by hitting .280 with 41 home runs and 101 RBI last year, in addition to leading the league in runs scored (127) and stolen bases (37). But that was last year and this year is no ordinary season.
[MLB’s 60-game schedule will cost more than 100 players a season of their primes]
Let’s start with Acuña’s projection for 2020, per FanGraphs. The 22-year-old is expected to hit .284 with 13 home runs with 34 RBI, 40 runs scored and 11 stolen bases over the shortened season. In a traditional 5×5 fantasy league with batting average, home runs, runs scored, RBI and stolen bases as categories, that would make Acuña the sixth-best fantasy hitter among outfielders and the 12th-best fantasy hitter overall in 2020. Why so much lower than expectations? Because there is less opportunity for him to distance himself from his peers in the counting stats (especially stolen bases) and his projected batting average isn’t high enough to make up the difference.
As you can see, Acuña’s ability to hit for power with speed on the base paths relative to other major leaguers is greatly diminished over a 60-game season. For example, in 2019, Acuña’s power-speed number (38.9), a statistic developed by noted baseball analyst Bill James which combines a player’s home run and stolen base numbers into one number, was almost 13 points higher than the fifth-best hitter for this metric. In 2020 he is expected to have an edge of less than two points over the fifth-best hitter.
| Rank | 2019 | Power-speed score | 2020 | Power-speed score projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 38.9 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 11.9 | |
| 2 | Christian Yelich | 35.7 | Christian Yelich | 10.6 | |
| 3 | Jonathan Villar | 30.0 | Jose Ramirez | 10.5 | |
| 4 | Trevor Story | 27.8 | Trea Turner | 10.4 | |
| 5 | Francisco Lindor | 26.1 | Adalberto Mondesi | 10.1 |
Here’s a simple example of how your draft could turn out by passing on Acuña at No. 1.
The other obvious choice for the first pick is Mike Trout, who is projected to hit .296 with 17 home runs with 42 RBI, 46 runs scored and six stolen bases. Selecting Trout No. 1, along with Xander Bogaerts (32nd best hitter per the consensus at Fantasy Pros) and Charlie Blackmon (35th) in the second and third rounds gets you a projected total of a .293 average with 37 home runs, 102 RBI, 114 runs scored and 11 stolen bases.
Acuña with those two estimate a .288 average with 33 home runs, 92 RBI, 104 runs scored and 16 stolen bases. Are five stolen bases worth significant leads in four of five categories? Hardly. Plus, you can make up for any loss of speed later in the draft.
Adalberto Mondesi (KC-SS), Mallex Smith (SEA-CF, RF), Trea Turner (WSH-SS), Jonathan Villar (MIA-2B, SS), Victor Robles (WSH-CF, RF), Jose Ramirez (CLE-3B), Bo Bichette (TOR-SS) and Starling Marte (ARI-CF) are all projected to steal 10 or more bases in 2020 with four of those (Turner, Ramirez, Bichette and Marte) expected to hit eight or more home runs. Robles could flirt with a 10-10 season and he is currently a sixth- or seventh-round pick in mixed league drafts.
A short fantasy season requires you to err on the side of caution and go with players with a higher floor, especially in the first round, rather than speculate on upside that may or may not emerge over 60 games. That’s why drafting Acuña is too big a risk and should be avoided as the top pick. Mike Trout is a safer pick in this regard. If I had the No. 1 choice, I’d take Trout.
