Authoritarian Belarus leader faces toughest fight yet as voters head to the polls

One of the three women, Veronika Tsepkalo, had fled the country, the independent media site Tut.by reported Sunday. Another, Maria Kolesnikova, was seized by police as she left campaign headquarters Saturday but was later released after a public outcry ensued. Authorities also arrested Tikhanovskaya’s campaign manager on Saturday for the second time in three days and rounded up campaign volunteers. Seven were detained and another was missing, according to the opposition campaign. 

Lukashenko told journalists Sunday that he did not count Tikhanovskaya as a serious rival. He denied that the opposition had been targeted.

“Nobody has undertaken any repressions in violation of the law and will not do so,” he said in Minsk. He vowed to maintain public order after the election.

“One cannot say that beginning tomorrow, the country will be embroiled in chaos and a civil war. Nothing will get out of control, I guarantee you that,” he said. 

“This election would be close if all the real opponents were registered and out of prison. My candidate is in prison,” said Andrei, a 30-year-old businessman voting outside Minsk, who declined to give his surname over fear of repercussions. He said the opposition had little chance of victory because the authorities would not allow it.

“The Central Election Commission will add in any necessary additional votes to make sure Lukashenko wins,” he said.

Valera, a mechanic voting Sunday who also did not provide his last name, called the vote “meaningless, like a fight between an elephant and a small dog. The elephant will win,” he said referring to Lukashenko.

Internet service in Belarus was interrupted Sunday, restricting access to social media. Telegram channels being used by election observers were shut down Sunday.

Late Saturday, security officials in black clothing and balaclavas seized young men who had been staging a small peaceful protest in Minsk and forced them into vans. Earlier, police broke up a bicycle race in the city held as a call for more freedom.

Lukashenko, 65, has governed Belarus since 1994 by changing the constitution, jailing opponents, barring rivals from running against him and cracking down on protests.

More than 1,300 opposition supporters have been arrested since May, according to Belarusan rights group Viasna, as well as dozens of journalists, bloggers, activists and independent election observers.

Tikhanovskaya, 37, sent her two children abroad after receiving a phone threat. On election eve, she moved out of her apartment and stayed in a secret location, fearing arrest. Other opposition figures have fled the country to avoid arrest.

Lukashenko has lost popularity because of the country’s economic stagnation and his poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which he dismissed as “mass psychosis.” But analysts — and the opposition — predict that the authorities will declare the result in Lukashenko’s favor and move swiftly to crush opposition protests, as has happened in the past.

Sergei, 39, a transport company manager, said he did not really see the inexperienced Tikhanovskaya as a likely president but voted for her anyway. “Lukashenko will be declared the winner whatever happens. There will be protests if he wins — what will be their outcome? People will rally and then go home.” He declined to give his surname, fearing repercussions.

There were reports that independent election observers were detained, harassed or blocked. Two independent observers, Veronika Romanovskaya, 55, and Natalia Belyaeva, 46, said the local election commission used the pandemic as a pretext to prevent them from entering polling stations.

The Central Election Commission reported a high turnout in early voting from Tuesday to Saturday. However, Romanovskaya and Belyaeva said the official figure was at least double the number of voters they had tracked, a finding that was reported by other independent observers, as well.

Svetlana Fominskaya, who was observing at a Minsk polling station this past week, said in a post on social media that on Aug. 4, she counted 32 people voting, while the official figure given was 131. On Aug. 8, 57 people voted, she said, but the official figure was 252.

In the final days of the campaign, pro-Lukashenko advertisements surfaced on YouTube, depicting explosions, riots and other unrest amid his warnings that the opposition wanted chaos and destruction.

Lukashenko has portrayed his opponents as agents of foreign forces and has repeatedly warned of a tough crackdown should people take to the streets to protest the election outcome, as has happened in previous disputed elections in Belarus.

Tikhanovskaya says she has no political ambitions and decided to run only because her husband was jailed. Her campaign has electrified many Belarusians hungry for change.

The decision of major opposition campaigns to unite to fight Lukashenko took authorities by surprise and saw Tikhanovskaya mount a surprisingly strong challenge, attracting tens of thousands of people to rallies in Minsk and other cities. The opposition’s central pledge is to hold new free and fair elections in which all candidates could compete.

She united with the campaign of former banker Victor Babariko, who is in jail with his son on fraud charges that he says are politically motivated; and a former ambassador to the United States, Valery Tsepkalo, founder of a high-tech business park, who was denied registration as a candidate and recently fled the country

The other faces fronting the opposition campaign are Babariko’s campaign manager, Kolesnikova, detained Saturday, and Tsepkalo’s wife Veronika.

Pavel, 31, an IT manager voting Sunday, said that the elections were close and was sure that Lukashenko would lose but still be declared the victor.

“But the elections will demonstrate to the elite that Lukashenko is weak,” he said. He also declined to give his last name.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany and Poland on Friday called for the release of political prisoners and for free and fair elections. They warned of “worrying reports of electoral irregularities during early voting.”

The Belarus election is being watched closely in Russia, which has long sought a union that would merge the two economies, state institutions and establish a single currency. Relations between Minsk and Moscow have been increasingly strained because of Lukashenko’s resistance to the union.

Lukashenko accused Russia of seeking to destabilize the country after 33 Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group paramilitary outfit were arrested in Belarus weeks before the vote. But he told journalists Sunday that he had received a letter from Russian President Vladimir Putin explaining the situation and that he had agreed with Putin to work out the issue.

Anastasia Shpakovskaya in Minsk contributed to this report.