2020 Stanley Cup projection: Expect more upsets and surprises

The NHL has adopted a “seeding” format for this year’s postseason. The highest remaining seed in each conference will face the lowest remaining seed, the second-highest remaining seed in each conference will face the second-lowest remaining seed, etc. Each series will also be a best-of-seven, not a best-of-five seen in the qualifying rounds. In the first round, second round and Conference finals, the higher-seeded team will be designated as the home team in Games 1, 2, 5 and 7. The lower-seeded team will be designated as the home team in Games 3, 4 and 6. In the Stanley Cup Final, the team with the higher regular season points percentage will be designated as the home team in Games 1, 2, 5 and 7.

To determine which club is most likely to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup at the end of all this we compiled each team’s actual win-loss record; its expected win-loss record based on goals scored and allowed (also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage) and its expected win-loss record based on expected goals for and against, which takes into account the likelihood a shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle and whether the attempt was a rebound, on the rush or generated on the power play. Those win rates were then used to simulate the postseason 1,000 times. The teams that ended up the champion in those simulations were recorded to show us who will be the overall champion of 2020. Not surprisingly, the top seeds have the best possible chance to win this year’s Stanley Cup but there are a few surprises.

No. 1 Philadelphia Flyers vs. No. 8 Montreal Canadiens

Flyers have a 64 percent chance to advance

Carter Hart’s second pro season for Philadelphia was a mixed bag. His overall save percentage dropped slightly but he provided the team a much higher rate of quality starts than he did in 2018-19 (63 percent compared to 47 percent), showing some maturity in net. He, along with Selke finalist Sean Couturier, should be enough to get past the surprising Canadiens.

No. 2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. No. 7 Columbus Blue Jackets

Lightning have a 56 percent chance to advance

At full strength the Lightning should run away with this. However, concerns over Stamkos and Hedman make this one closer than it might otherwise be. Tampa Bay’s second line of Tyler Johnson, Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn were on the losing side of scoring chances (6 to 16 at even strength including a 6-1 deficit in the high-danger areas) in the round-robin games and Nikita Kucherov was limited to a goal and assist in the qualifying round.

No. 3 Washington Capitals vs. No. 6 New York Islanders

Islanders have a 55 percent chance to advance

The Islanders look poised to upset the Capitals in the first round. Washington’s defenseman John Carlson, a finalist for the Norris Trophy, did not play in the round-robin after sustaining an injury in an exhibition game against the Carolina Hurricanes. With Carlson and the top unit on the power play, for example, the team scored 7.1 goals per 60 minutes. Without Carlson that dropped to 5.9 goals per 60 minutes. Ovechkin also had no points in three round-robin games.

No. 4 Boston Bruins vs. No. 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Hurricanes have a 66 percent chance to advance

Only the Vegas Golden Knights generated a higher rate of high-danger chances than Carolina during the regular season and their penalty kill was also one of the top teams in the league at suppressing scoring chances from the opponent’s power play (44.9 per 60 minutes, 7th).

No. 1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. No. 8 Chicago Blackhawks

Golden Knights have a 68 percent chance to advance

Vegas has depth. Max Pacioretty produced the third-most high-danger chances at even strength (203) during the regular season. Jonathan Marchessault was 15th among forwards for high-danger chances, too (156). Paul Stastny led the team with six during the qualifying round. Plus, Golden Knights forward Mark Stone is still producing. The 28-year-old scored 63 points in 65 games (21 goals and 42 assists) during the regular season and led the team with five points (two goals, three assists) in the round-robin games.

No. 2 Colorado Avalanche vs. No. 7 Arizona Coyotes

Avalanche have a 58 percent chance to advance

Colorado’s center Nathan MacKinnon is a finalist for the Hart Trophy, awarded to the league’s most valuable player, after finishing fifth in the NHL with 93 points (35 goals and 58 assists) in 69 games. He also scored three points (one goal and two assists) in three round-robin games.

In addition, goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz will provide the Avalanche with a strong presence in net. Grubauer posted a .857 save rate against high-danger chances at even strength during the regular season (fifth-best) and Francouz became the franchise’s first netminder since David Aebischer in 2003-04 to finish in the top 10 for save percentage (.923).

No. 3 Dallas Stars vs. No. 6 Calgary Flames

Flames have a 64 percent chance to advance

Calgary averaged four goals per game in the qualifying round with 11 different players scoring. Only one of those, Rasmus Andersson, was a defenseman. Goaltender Cam Talbot also emerged for the Flames, stopping 104 of 110 shots faced (.945 save percentage). His save rate was .919 during the regular season.

No. 4 St. Louis Blues vs. No. 5 Vancouver Canucks

Canucks have a 67 percent chance to advance

The Canucks have the momentum. Vancouver, after dropping its first match up, won the last three games of its series against the Minnesota Wild, including a come-from-behind overtime win in Game 4. St. Louis, on the other hand, lost three games in a row in the round robin.

Calder candidate Quinn Hughes led the Canucks with six points in the opening round. Bo Harvat, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser each had four points, with Horvat leading the team in individual high-danger chances produced (five in four games). Vancouver’s Jacob Markstrom gave the team three quality starts in four games, stopping 112 of 121 shots faced (.926 save rate) including a league-leading 28 of 30 shots originating in the slot or crease.