Where the race stands at the start of the Democratic convention
Biden’s team deserves credit for making lemonade out of lemons. No traditional convention? Well, they created something more contemporary, entertaining and in sync with current media-consumption habits. (We will see how well they execute in the coming days.) The young and occasional voters the Democrats want to attract may find streaming of diverse, young political stars and top-rate entertainers much more interesting than the ponderous two-hour roll call of states and images of 65-year-olds in funny hats.
Biden has also leaned into the theme of progress and a diverse America with his pick of Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) as his running mate. The Post-ABC News poll shows that the Biden-Harris ticket leads by 12 points nationally, 53 to 41 percent, and by 11 points among those sure to vote. According to the poll, “54 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s choice of Harris while 29 percent disapprove and 17 percent have no opinion.” Even more encouraging to the Biden-Harris ticket, “An 86 percent majority of Democrats approve of Biden’s choice of Harris, including 64 percent who strongly approve. But Harris also draws mostly positive reactions among political independents, with 52 percent approving and 29 percent disapproving.” With 78 percent of African Americans approving the pick, 50 percent strongly so, Biden seems to have done what he set out to do: energize the base while keeping independents and centrists on board.
The NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released on Sunday shows Biden with a nine-point national lead. In battleground states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), NBC-WSJ has Biden with a seven-point lead. The poll found that “the former vice president holds double-digit advantages over Trump on the coronavirus, immigration, health care, race relations and uniting the country … [and] Harris with a higher net personal rating than either Trump or Biden.” The reason for Biden’s lead seems obvious: “A combined 61 percent of voters believe America’s response to the coronavirus has been unsuccessful, including 39 percent who say it’s been ‘very’ unsuccessful.”
The CBS News-YouGov poll has similar results, showing Biden-Harris with a 10-point lead nationally, with at least 279 electoral votes in his column. In addition, “Black voters (who vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and who Biden needs to win) are overwhelmingly satisfied with the choice of Harris — 9 in 10 are — including 53% who are enthusiastic.” Biden has wide leads among women (+17), African Americans (+84), White college-educated voters (+10) and moderates (+28). His standing is much stronger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 among men (tied vs. -11), Whites (-11 vs. -20) and voters over age 65 (tied vs. -7).
The task for this week’s convention is threefold. First, the ticket must reinforce Biden as the antidote to an out-of-control pandemic, economic ruin, dysfunctional government and racial strife — all aggravated by Trump. Second, Biden and Harris need to retain their center-left orientation while firing up their base and infrequent voters. Third, and likely most important, they must avoid technical glitches entailed in a complex operation involving hundreds of feeds and dozens of speakers at far-flung locations. After all, the Biden-Harris ticket is selling competence. In this case, the medium really is the message.
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