No, a vaccine won’t be ready by Election Day
By Editorial Board,
THE DECISION by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford to pause a large-scale, Phase 3 clinical trial of a coronavirus vaccine candidate is a predictable speed bump in such research. Sky-high expectations for quick results against the coronavirus are quite understandable — everyone would like this nightmare to end soon. But it is dangerous and unreasonable to rush the research and development, and simply wrong to exaggerate the possibilities. All previous experience suggests this may take a while.
President Trump recklessly pumps up the prospects for a vaccine to gain political advantage. At the White House the other day, he promised “a vaccine in record time,” and “speed like nobody has ever seen before.” Hinting at a pre-election surprise, he added that the country “could even have it during the month of October,” and “you could have a very big surprise coming up.”
The vaccine candidates that are most advanced in clinical trials — Phase 3 usually involves tens of thousands of participants — are not likely to be ready for widespread distribution before Election Day, no matter how hard Mr. Trump wishes otherwise. Perhaps some unforeseen breakthrough could lead to an early vaccine or therapy suitable for fast-tracking to front-line health workers under emergency use authorization by the Food and Drug Administration, although that is speculative and problematic. But most people are going to have to wait until next year.
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Even then, a successful vaccine project will have broken all speed records. In the past, vaccines, taken from the preclinical phase, required an average of 10.7 years and had a 6 percent probability of making it to the market. What’s different this time is the enormity of resources and brainpower being mustered; more than 100 vaccine research efforts are underway around the world, and that might improve the chances.
The danger of too much haste is a flawed or unsafe treatment. Responding to such fears, nine biopharma chief executives sent a welcome and unprecedented joint pledge to reassure the public. They promised to seek approval of a vaccine only after it demonstrated safety and efficacy in proper clinical trials. The FDA’s senior career officials have also promised to be guided by the science.
Public trust in a vaccine is just as vital as the inoculation itself. Confidence in vaccines has been eroded by a vociferous and misguided anti-vaccination movement. That anxiety appears to be rising. In a CBS News poll conducted Sept. 2 to 4, when people were asked what they would do if a coronavirus vaccine became available, 21 percent said they would get it right away, compared with 32 percent who gave the same response in July. Fifty-eight percent said they would wait to see what happens, compared with 51 percent who said that in July. Twenty-one percent said they would never get one, compared with 17 percent in July.
This is a discouraging trend. Every effort should be made to build public confidence with a worthy vaccine that people can trust. Unfortunately, Mr. Trump is doing the opposite.
Read more: Erin N. Marcus: Why the CDC’s Nov. 1 vaccine rush is likely to backfire Ezekiel J. Emanuel and Topher Spiro: What the government must do to successfully administer a covid-19 vaccine Marc A. Thiessen: Kamala Harris casting doubt on a pre-election vaccine is shameful FDA commissioner Stephen M. Hahn: No matter what, only a safe, effective vaccine will get our approval
