Democrats want to knock out the longest-serving member of Congress. Can they pull it off?
Young’s race is emblematic of the type of seat Democrats are eyeing to make 2020 another good year for them. Alaska is historically a red state but has voted for Democrats in statewide elections on occasion. Young has served in Alaska’s sole House seat since 1973, long enough to have experienced three presidential impeachments. But he has not received more than 54 percent of the vote since 2012. Testing his staying power is a good bet for a party looking to pad its House majority.
First elected to public office in 1964 as the mayor of tiny Fort Yukon, Young is a living reminder of when the 49th state’s population was largely rural, poor and dependent on federal transfers. The discovery of oil in Prudhoe Bay in 1968 changed all of that, sparking a boom that more than doubled the state’s population since Young’s first race. Today, two-thirds of the population lives in urban areas.
Young’s opponent, Alyse Galvin — born a year after he first took office as mayor — hails from this new Alaska. A resident of suburban Anchorage, Galvin ran against Young in 2018 and received 46.5 percent of the vote, the best anyone has fared against him since 1990. Democrats across the country noticed, and she had raised more than $2.2 million as of July 31. Galvin says Young can no longer deliver the federal investment and support the state needs to recover from the massive decline in the price of oil and loss of tourism the pandemic has caused. She contends she can win even if Trump carries the state because Alaskans are looking for change, transparency and honesty. “I’m a straight shooter that way,” she told me.
Galvin certainly knows what she needs to do to win. She has avoided supporting key progressive priorities such as Medicare-for-all and the Green New Deal. Instead, she notes that Medicare often underpays for procedures and that rural doctors and hospitals need the revenue from private insurance to stay open. She hits progressive notes when she talks about “the climate crisis” and the need to have “affordable health care for everyone,” but strikes moderate tones on solutions to these challenges. As she puts it, she’s open to solutions on health care that do not “strangle our small businesses.” She’s for “responsible resource development” that includes more oil and gas exploration along with developing Alaska’s renewable energy sources. Essentially, she’s the Alaskan version of the moderate Democratic women who captured a host of formerly Republican suburban seats in 2018.
That’s probably one reason Young is tying her to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Young notes that Pelosi’s PAC has contributed thousands of dollars to Galvin’s campaign this year and that Galvin is getting more than that through the national Democratic online contribution portal Act Blue. Young’s campaign is running television ads making this point and placing signs that say, “Galvin is Alaska’s Pelosi.”
Galvin responded with annoyance when I asked her about this line of attack. She notes she’s been a registered independent since 2006. (Alaska allows independents to contest a party’s primary.) She told me she’s never even met Pelosi, although she acknowledges receiving the contribution. “My being a nonpartisan represents Alaskans more than ever,” she says. “This is just a sign that my opponent is desperate and will do anything he can — whether it’s truthful or not — to keep himself in power.” Galvin also sued to prevent the state from listing her only as the “Democratic nominee” on the official ballot. (She lost.)
That said, Galvin acknowledges meeting with House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) and told me she would caucus with the majority. She was a registered Democrat before 2006. Alaska and federal contribution records also show that she has donated to more than 30 Democrats, Democratic campaign committees or independents running against Republicans since 2012, including Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, compared to only one Republican. Calling her “Alaska’s Pelosi” might be a stretch, but there’s no doubt where Galvin’s political sympathies lie.
But such positioning may not even matter. The same demographic changes that have altered national politics have applied to Alaska, too. Trump received only a shade higher than 51 percent here in 2016, the lowest a Republican has received since 1996, when independent Ross Perot got more than 10 percent of the vote. Election data show that Alaska’s cities — Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau — have steadily moved toward Democrats over the past two decades, a trend Trump accelerated. In 2018, both Young and Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Dunleavy lost Anchorage by thousands of votes even though Trump narrowly carried it. (Dunleavy did win the race.)
Young isn’t taking the challenge lightly. He remains energetic despite his age and is confident he’ll win. He argues that he can still function effectively if Republicans remain in the minority (where he spent the first 22 years of his House career). More than anything, he believes Alaskans “know what I have done and can continue to do.” That sheer longevity is one reason many nonpartisan in-state observers are skeptical that he’ll meet his political demise.
Still, public polls from late spring showed Young slightly behind Galvin, while a poll from July showed nearly half of Alaskans surveyed had a negative opinion of him, easily his worst figure in the decade this particular pollster has been tracking Young’s public image. Young’s campaign manager, Truman Reed, disputes these numbers, noting that the campaign’s internal polling “shows we are in a good spot.” The fact that neither campaign has released or leaked polling data suggests, however, this is a real horse race.
Young’s saving grace may just be that he fell in love with Lu Fredson, a member of the Native Alaskan Gwich’in people, to whom he remained married until her death in 2009. Between his decades of work on behalf of the Native tribes and his two Native Alaskan children and 14 Native grandchildren, Young built up a reservoir of goodwill among Alaska Natives that could be his firewall. While Dunleavy was crushed in 2018 in the four state districts dominated by Alaska Natives by more than 7,800 votes, Young only lost the region by less than 700. It’s hard to see Galvin prevailing unless she puts a serious dent into Young’s Native support.
The British politician Enoch Powell famously quipped that “all political careers end in failure.” Young’s hope is that, like in the old Westerns, he can take a final hurrah and ride off happily into the sunset. He still has a slight edge, but if he loses, it will be because the townspeople lured by the wealth from the natural resources he helped Alaska develop want a new sheriff for a new age.
Read more:
