A worker sprays sanitizer on a lectern Monday as preparations take place for the first 2020 presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday. (Patrick Semansky/AP)
David Byler
Data analyst and political columnist focusing on elections, polling, demographics and statistics
Data analyst and political columnist
September 28 at 5:08 PM
The worst part of any presidential debate is the post-debate spin. Fortunately, there are five simple rules, backed by historical polling data, that can give you a sense of how the first meeting between President Trump and Joe Biden might affect the race.
Rule No. 1: Keep an open mind.
“LOL nothing matters” is the cynical, fashionable take on this hotly contested but relatively stable election. A new horseman of the apocalypse emerges every week, and Biden’s lead remains around seven points. But given past evidence, it would be normal for the debate to shift the race a couple of points in the direction of one of the candidates.
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Some presidential debates
change polling, some don’t
Dotted lines mark debates
Sometimes the debates reinforce trends
Sometimes the frontrunner
keeps their lead
But occasionally a debate
changes the entire dynamic
Source: Various pollsters
and aggregators
DAVID BYLER/ THE WASHINGTON POST
Some presidential debates change polling,
some don’t
Dotted lines mark debates
Sometimes the debates reinforce trends
Sometimes the frontrunner keeps their lead
But occasionally a debate
changes the entire dynamic
Source: Various pollsters
and aggregators
DAVID BYLER/ THE WASHINGTON POST
Some presidential debates change polling, some don’t
Dotted lines
mark debates.
Sometimes
debates
don’t
matter…
…but they
can cause
real shifts
Source: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight,
various pollsters and academics
DAVID BYLER/ THE WASHINGTON POST
Some presidential debates change polling, some don’t
Dotted lines
mark debates.
Sometimes debates
don’t matter…
…but they can
cause real shifts
Source: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight,
various pollsters and academics
DAVID BYLER/ THE WASHINGTON POST
Some presidential debates change polling, some don’t
Dotted lines mark debates.
Debates can reinforce trends
Sometimes they don’t matter
But sometimes they move the race a lot
Source: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight,
various pollsters and academics
DAVID BYLER/ THE WASHINGTON POST
[Sign up for The Odds newsletter for election updates from data columnist David Byler]
[Note: Polling data in 1960 was more sparse than for other years.]
The overall result is clear: Debates often do matter. Even in relatively polarized elections such as the 2008 matchup between Barack Obama and John McCain, and the 2012 election that pitted Obama against Mitt Romney, it’s possible to tie debates to shifts in the race. Still, it’s true that in other races — such as the 1996 race between President Bill Clinton and Republican Bob Dole — the debates were barely a bump on the path to an inevitable result.
So it’s wise to keep an open mind about what can happen, especially because small shifts can have large consequences. If the debates shift the polls even two points in Trump’s favor, the race for the electoral college will become very tight. And if Biden gains just two more points, he’ll edge toward landslide territory.
Rule No. 2: Expectations matter.
Presidential debates, for better or worse, aren’t judged on substance or a candidate’s fluency with facts. Voters, and media figures, often pick a winner based on who beat expectations.
That’s exactly what happened in 2012.
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!important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-top:0 !important;mix-blend-mode:normal !important;font-style:normal !important;position:static !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle0{height:22px !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle1{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:14px !important;line-height:18px !important;height:18px !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle2{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:14px !important;line-height:17px !important;height:17px !important;text-align:center !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle3{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:14px !important;line-height:17px !important;height:17px !important;text-align:right !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle4{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:17px !important;line-height:21px !important;height:21px !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle5{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:14px !important;line-height:17px !important;height:17px !important;text-align:justify !important;color:rgb(102,102,102) !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle6{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:12px !important;line-height:14px !important;height:14px !important}#g-trend_2012-xsmall .g-pstyle7{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:12px !important;line-height:14px !important;height:14px !important;text-align:right !important}#g-trend_2012-medium{position:relative;overflow:hidden}#g-trend_2012-medium p{font-family:FranklinITCProLight,FranklinITCStdLight,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:16px !important;line-height:20px !important;height:auto !important;filter:alpha(opacity=100) !important;-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100) !important;opacity:1 !important;letter-spacing:0 !important;text-align:left !important;color:rgb(0,0,0) !important;text-transform:none !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-top:0 !important;mix-blend-mode:normal !important;font-style:normal !important;position:static !important}#g-trend_2012-medium .g-pstyle0{font-family:FranklinITCProBold,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif !important;font-size:20px !important;line-height:22px !important;height:22px !important}#g-trend_2012-medium .g-pstyle1{height:20px !important}#g-trend_2012-medium .g-pstyle2{font-size:14px !important;line-height:17px !important;height:17px !important;text-align:center !important}#g-trend_2012-medium .g-pstyle3{font-size:14px !important;line-height:17px !important;height:17px !important;text-align:right !important}#g-trend_2012-medium .g-pstyle4{font-size:14px !important;line-height:17px 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The first debate helped
Mitt Romney in 2012
Obama recovered later in the race
60
Days until the 2012 election
DAVID BYLER/
THE WASHINGTON POST
Source: Various pollsters
The first debate helped Mitt Romney in 2012
Obama recovered later in the race
60
Days until the 2012 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
The first debate helped Mitt Romney in 2012
Obama later recovered, but Romney surged after the first debate
Days until the 2012 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Romney was a wooden campaigner in both his 2008 and 2012 runs. Republicans constantly complained that he was unrelatable and awkward — but he was more likable than former House speaker Newt Gingrich, so he won the nomination. Obama, on the other hand, was a once-in-a-generation rhetorical talent.
In the first debate, when Romney came off as confident and Obama seemed flat-footed, voters noticed. Romney gained on Obama immediately afterward, and the race stayed close until Election Day. Obama eventually won the race, but Romney showed that one better-than-expected performance can push a straggler into a more competitive position. Neither Trump nor Biden has a reputation as a great debater. And Trump’s pre-debate strategy has been to lower expectations for Biden even further. Given what one hyper-articulate night can do for a candidate, that may prove to have been a mistake.
Rule No. 3: Watch for known vulnerabilities.
Debates can also accent — or sand off — a known or perceived flaw in a candidate. Ronald Reagan experienced both these dynamics in 1984.
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Reagan hit a low point
in the first debate
He regained his footing later in the campaign
60
Days until 1984 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Reagan hit a low point in the first debate
He regained his footing later in the campaign
60
Days until 1984 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Reagan hit a low point in the first debate
He regained his footing later in the campaign
60
Days until 1984 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
The first debate of 1984 highlighted one of his key weaknesses: age. Reagan took the oath of office at 69 — the oldest president up to that point — and many were concerned that he had passed his prime by 1984. The first debate reinforced that perception: Reagan seemed lost, and Walter Mondale started to inch up in the polls.
But in the second debate of 1984, Reagan neutralized this concern, famously quipping: “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”
Reagan likely would have won without that joke, which is a pretty good one for a politician. But the lesson still applies in different circumstances: Watch the weaknesses. Americans don’t like how Trump is handling his job, and they see him as uncaring. Biden would benefit if the debate is a simple referendum on Trump. Biden, on the other hand, needs to step carefully around his policy positions: He’s running on the most progressive platform in modern history even as he presents himself as a return to normal, and Trump could try to nail him on that.
Rule No. 4: Don’t overthink an obvious self-immolation.
Finally, if a candidate stumbles badly, don’t overthink it. That person will probably lose ground. The best example of this came in 2000.
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Al Gore bombed in the first debate
Bush lagged Gore before that, then jumped ahead
60
Days until the 2000 election
DAVID BYLER/
THE WASHINGTON POST
Source: Various pollsters
Al Gore bombed in the first debate
Bush lagged Gore before that, then jumped ahead
60
Days until the 2000 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Al Gore bombed in the first debate of 2000
George W. Bush was behind before Gore’s disastrous performance
60
Days until the 2000 election
Source: Various pollsters
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
In the first debate of the 2000 election, Al Gore was widely mocked for sighing and rolling his eyes at George W. Bush. Gore’s affectations made him seem condescending and arrogant. If either candidate makes a terrible mistake — and trust me, you’ll know it when you see it — that candidate is likely to lose ground. The idea of a Trumpian Grand Strategy to turn disaster into political support should have died long ago. Don’t let the debates resurrect it.
Rule No. 5: What to do if none of the other rules help at all
It’s possible that, after watching the debate, you still have no clue who “won.” If that happens, the winner is probably Biden.
Trump has trailed Biden in the polls for months. Unless those polls are significantly off, he needs to alter the basic dynamic of this race to win. If the debate is a wash, skip the post-debate commentary and go to bed. All Biden needs is for the race to stay the same.
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Read more:
The Editorial Board: Joe Biden for president
Henry Olsen: Three tough questions Joe Biden should have to answer at the debate
Jonathan Capehart: Let Biden go ballistic against Trump at the debate
E.J. Dionne Jr.: How Joe Biden can win Tuesday’s debate
Colbert I. King: Trump loves low blows, but voters want a clean debate. Biden shouldn’t take the bait.
