The winless New York Jets and two other road underdogs are Week 14’s best bets

December 9, 2020

Over the past three years, road underdogs coming off a loss have a 122-92-7 record against the spread, for a winning percentage of .570. This year, that angle is producing winners nearly 60 percent of the time (36-25-0).

With those numbers in mind, here are this week’s prime picks against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13½)

Pick: New York Jets +13½

The Jets kept their winless season alive on Sunday when an all-out blitz failed to produce a sack against Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr while New York was protecting a four-point lead. The result was a 46-yard touchdown pass with five seconds, which gave the Raiders a narrow win and dropped the Jets to 0-12. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was subsequently fired after the controversial call.

The Jets are a bad team, but they aren’t winless bad. We would expect a team with their point differential (minus-173) to have at least two wins at this point of the season. Their run defense is the third best in the NFL, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus, stopping 25 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage this season. New York also allows just 3.1 yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL this year, perhaps hampering a key ability of Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are perhaps a bit overrated, having gone 2-5 against the spread since their bye in Week 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-2½)

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +2½

Give Pittsburgh a pass for losing to a below-average Washington Team on just four days’ rest. The Steelers’ offensive line did not allow a sack of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for the fifth straight game. Pittsburgh’s defense, the best in the league according to both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders, tied an NFL record by recording a sack in its 69th consecutive game. T.J. Watt recorded one of Pittsburgh’s three sacks on Monday night and leads the league with 12, much to his brother’s delight.

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-3½)

Pick: Denver Broncos +3½

The Panthers are coming off a bye and should have running back Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup. Yet that doesn’t mean this will be a cakewalk. Denver boasts the fifth-highest rated run defense and tackling rate in the NFL this season, per Pro Football Focus. Linebacker Alexander Johnson has the second-most stops against the run (34) — plays judged by PFF to be a failure for the offense — and fellow linebacker Josey Jewell ranks 13th out of 260 defenders (defensive linemen, linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties) with 24.

The Broncos are also pressuring the quarterback on 26 percent of passing plays, the third-highest rate in the league, resulting in just 6.8 yards per passing attempt against them, the fifth-best rate.

Season best bets record: 15-15-2.

The three games above represent our best plays of the week because our analysis shows the point spreads are the most divergent from what we expect to happen once the teams take the field. Below, you will find picks for the other games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every single NFL game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from the Week 14 slate.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-5)

Pick: Los Angeles Rams -5

Green Bay Packers (-7½) at Detroit Lions

Pick: Green Bay Packers -7½

Houston Texans (-1½) at Chicago Bears

Pick: Chicago Bears +1½

Dallas Cowboys (-3½) at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3½

Tennessee Titans (-7½) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +7½

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Miami Dolphins

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7