The most important NFL game this week pits Tom Brady against Kirk Cousins

Those two teams will meet on Sunday in a game that should have a huge impact on the NFC’s playoff picture. Using each team’s actual record and the record we would expect based on their point differential, we can estimate their likelihood of winning a particular game and use the results to simulate the rest of the season. By this method, the Vikings would improve their playoff chances from 41 to 69 percent with a win over Tampa Bay, while a loss would drop their chances to just 25 percent.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, can improve their playoff chances from 79 to 94 percent with a win on Sunday. A loss would drop Tampa Bay’s hopes to 58 percent. No other matchup in Week 14 presents quite such dramatic potential swings.

We will also see whether Zimmer can take a step toward evening the score against Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. Brady is 4-1 against Zimmer, if you include his time as the defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals, with the wins coming by an average of more than 15 points. Brady has completed 60 percent of his passes against Zimmer’s defenses for 1,127 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions.

And this time, Brady will have at his disposal Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller, a trio of receivers considered above average this season after catching 124 of 184 targets for 1,589 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions as a group. Brady has a 114.2 passer rating when targeting that trio. Brady will also have wideout Antonio Brown, tight end Rob Gronkowski and running backs Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette to deliver balls to, giving him numerous weapons all over the field.

“He’s prepared,” Minnesota safety Harrison Smith said of Brady. “He knows what your looks are, he knows how to set his protections, how to get them in the right place, he’s very quick with his reads and his decision-making. He just knows everything that’s going on, on the field. He knows everything his line is doing, everything his receivers need to do, where his backs need to go, whether they need to block, what the defense is doing, what the coverage is doing.”

Brady knows, then, that he may want to avoid Smith in coverage. The 31-year-old has allowed just 206 yards over 427 snaps in coverage, with four interceptions against one touchdown, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 72.1 passer rating when they throw in his direction. Only eight safeties have been better at flummoxing passers in 2020. Smith’s eight passes defended are also tied for the seventh most at the position. In his last two games facing Brady, Smith has allowed four of six targets to be caught for 61 yards.

Here are two other games this weekend with significant playoff implications.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders

The Colts can improve their playoff chances from 70 to 84 percent with a win; a loss drops them to 48 percent.

The Raiders can improve their playoff chances from 40 to 65 percent with a win; a loss drops them to 22 percent.

This matchup will help shape the AFC playoff picture. Both the Colts and Raiders are fighting for a wild-card spot, while Indianapolis still has a chance to claim the AFC South.

Indianapolis should have an edge in the trenches on offense. The Colts’ offensive line has allowed quarterback Philip Rivers to be pressured on just 25 percent of his drop-backs, the third fewest of any team this season. Right tackle Braden Smith has yet to allow a sack this year, despite playing a team-high 411 snaps in pass protection. Only two other tackles, Garett Bolles of the Denver Broncos and Dennis Kelly of the Tennessee Titans, have played at least 400 pass-protection snaps without a sack allowed this season.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have the fifth-worst pass rushing unit this season, per Pro Football Focus, and the third-worst run defense. The Las Vegas secondary is also in the bottom 10, creating a potential mismatch for T.Y. Hilton if he squares off against cornerback Trayvon Mullen on the left side of the field. Mullen has only given up three touchdowns, but he is allowing 1.1 yards per snap in coverage, an above-average rate.

Look for the Colts’ Zach Pascal to also be on the winning side of his matchup against Lamarcus Joyner in the slot. Only four corners are allowing a higher rate of yards per snap to slot receivers than Joyner (1.4).

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

The Cardinals can improve their playoff chances from 37 to 54 percent with a win; a loss drops them to 19 percent.

The Giants can improve their playoff chances from 52 to 68 with a win; a loss drops them to 40 percent.

The Giants control their own destiny as the leaders of the NFC East, while the Cardinals suffered a costly loss to the NFC West rival Rams last week. Arizona has dropped four of five since a 5-2 start and needs a win to stay relevant.

A road victory might depend heavily on the health of quarterback Kyler Murray, who has not run the ball effectively since he sustained a reported AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder during a Week 11 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Murray is averaging 6.5 yards per carry in 2020, but he has rushed just 15 times for 61 yards over his last three games, all losses.

If Murray can’t extend plays with his legs, that turns a once-dynamic offense into a one-dimensional shell of its former self. From the start of the season through Week 10, Arizona scored eight points per game more than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. That figure plummeted to one point per game fewer than expected since Week 11.

Murray can also expect all-world wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who is nursing neck and back injuries, to be shadowed by Giants star cornerback James Bradberry, potentially limiting his effectiveness. Bradberry is ranked 10th out of 83 qualified cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus, and is allowing less than a yard per snap in coverage this season. Opposing quarterbacks have also registered a mere 69.6 passer rating when testing Bradberry in coverage.