NCAA tournament bracketology: Mississippi shows just how quickly things can change

Not exactly thrilling stuff. Only Ole Miss has made itself much more interesting over the last two weeks.

It claimed a 52-50 rock fight at home against Tennessee to nose over .500. Then it finished a sweep of Auburn, overcoming both a 10-point deficit in the final 10 minutes and Cooper’s 14-assist effort to win on Devontae Shuler’s buzzer-beater. Not content with a good week, the Rebels clobbered Missouri 80-59 at home on Wednesday, then picked off South Carolina on Saturday.

Just like that, Mississippi (12-8, 7-6 SEC) has moved to the periphery of the NCAA tournament field entering Thursday’s trip to LSU.

It might seem like an out-of-nowhere emergence, but there’s often a team that cobbles together a February (and early March) charge. Among recent teams to have done so:

• In 2017, Vanderbilt was 12-13 after losing Feb. 11, but won seven of eight to vault into at-large contention. The Commodores landed a No. 9 seed despite an SEC semifinal loss to Arkansas.
• Oregon was no one’s idea of a serious tournament contender when it got swept by Southern California and UCLA in late February 2019 to fall to 15-12. But it won its final four regular season games, zipped through the Pac-12 tournament (and would have been a borderline at-large choice with a loss in the league title game) and then won a pair of NCAA tournament games as a No. 12 seed before losing to eventual champ Virginia in the regional semifinals.
• A year ago, Providence was 13-12 and a postseason afterthought thanks to a string of ugly early-season defeats. Six consecutive victories — including defeats of Marquette, Seton Hall and Villanova — seemingly propelled the Friars safely into the field until the pandemic ended the season.

The Rebels entered the week at No. 55 in the NET and No. 51 in KenPom.com’s rankings — unremarkable but not disqualifying figures. The same could be said for Quadrant 1 performance (2-4). A 4-5 road mark is plenty respectable. Two Quadrant 3 losses (at home against Georgia and Wichita State) are not ideal, but also the sort of warts expected from a team at the edge of the field.

Two good weeks, especially in an abbreviated season, can alter a team’s postseason fortunes. Mississippi, perched five spots outside of the field of 68 in this week’s Washington Post bracket projection, is just the latest evidence. With a bit less than a month until Selection Sunday, there’s still time for another unanticipated surge to develop — and also for the Rebels to complete their push into the NCAA tournament.

Last four included: Connecticut, Colorado State, Minnesota, North Carolina

First four on the outside: Drake, St. Bonaventure, Richmond, Maryland

Next four on the outside: Mississippi, Syracuse, Western Kentucky, St. John’s

Conference call: Big Ten (9), Big 12 (7), Atlantic Coast (6), Southeastern (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (2), West Coast (2)

Moving in: Eastern Washington, James Madison, Loyola Chicago, North Texas, UNC Greensboro, Virginia Commonwealth, Wright State

Moving out: Cleveland State, Drake, Furman, Northeastern, St. Bonaventure, UAB, Weber State

West vs. East, South vs. Midwest

West Region

(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Bryant-SOUTHWESTERN/Prairie View A&M

(8) Florida vs. (9) Xavier

(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Colorado State/North Carolina

(4) Texas vs. (13) BIG SOUTH/Winthrop

(3) ATLANTIC COAST/Virginia vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate

(6) Kansas vs. (11) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State

(7) Colorado vs. (10) Seton Hall

(2) Illinois vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Vermont

It certainly looks like Gonzaga will roll into the NCAA tournament without a loss. The Bulldogs completed a season sweep of Brigham Young last week, then crushed San Francisco, 100-61, over the weekend. Only two games remain on the Zags’ regular season slate. … Colorado State has done plenty right, but it has a dicey trip to Nevada on Saturday and Monday. The Wolf Pack has already swept a two-game series from Boise State. …

Kansas had a productive week, handling Oklahoma State and then sweeping a pair from Iowa State. The Jayhawks are the best of the No. 6 seeds for now. … Colorado is 5-2 against the other teams in the top half of the Pac-12 (good!) but has lost games at California and Washington, who are a combined 5-15 in the conference (bad!). Good luck figuring out the Buffaloes. … There’s a pivotal series this week in the America East, as Vermont visits UMBC on Thursday and Friday.

East Region

(1) Ohio State vs. (16) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington

(8) UCLA vs. (9) Saint Louis

(5) Missouri vs. (12) HORIZON/Wright State

(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

(3) West Virginia vs. (14) SOUTHLAND/Abilene Christian

(6) Virginia Tech vs. (11) Indiana

(7) Purdue vs. (10) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago

(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Alabama vs. (15) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

The committee’s bracket preview Saturday decreed Ohio State would be a No. 1 seed a little more than a month away from Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes promptly drubbed Indiana, so they’re absolutely on the top line here. … It took a nine-game winning streak, but Wright State finally erased a three-game hole relative to Cleveland State in the Horizon League standings. Both are 15-3 in conference play and are the best bets to land the Horizon’s automatic bid.

It was mildly unexpected to see West Virginia on the No. 3 line in the bracket reveal, but the Mountaineers do own five Quadrant 1 victories. Saturday’s overtime loss to Oklahoma shouldn’t hurt much. … Loyola Chicago snagged a split at Drake over the weekend. The metrics love the Ramblers (No. 10 in both the NET and KenPom), which makes them a fascinating potential case for the committee with few high-profile victories to their credit.

South Region

(1) BIG 12/Baylor vs. (16) COLONIAL/James Madison-MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/North Carolina A&T

(8) LSU vs. (9) Brigham Young

(5) PAC-12/Southern California vs. (12) Connecticut/Minnesota

(4) Florida State vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo

(3) Iowa vs. (14) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty

(6) Arkansas vs. (11) Stanford

(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) San Diego State

(2) BIG EAST/Villanova vs. (15) SUMMIT/South Dakota State

James Madison won eight conference games total over the last two seasons. With a new coach (Mark Byington), a new arena and a heavily revamped roster, the Dukes sit alone atop the CAA with a 13-5 record (and 8-1 overall) … It’s dangerous to distinguish yourself in a bad way. At 0-7 on the road after a 13-point loss at Maryland that was rarely competitive, Minnesota does just that. The Gophers still have trips to Indiana and Penn State (and possibly Nebraska, if that postponed contest is rescheduled) to get on the board away from the Barn. …

Arkansas had a productive week, collecting victories at Kentucky (not as valuable as usual) and Missouri (more valuable than usual). The Razorbacks aren’t teeming with huge wins (2-4 vs. Quadrant 1) but have done nothing foolish while rolling up a 16-5 record. … San Diego State has won six in a row since getting swept at Utah State. The Aztecs, whose metrics are better than anyone else in the Mountain West, get two games at Fresno State this week.

Midwest Region

(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) SUN BELT/Texas State

(8) Louisville vs. (9) Boise State

(5) Creighton vs. (12) OHIO VALLEY/Belmont

(4) Tennessee vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/North Texas

(3) Oklahoma vs. (14) SOUTHERN/UNC Greensboro

(6) Rutgers vs. (11) ATLANTIC 10/Virginia Commonwealth

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Oregon

(2) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Houston vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Siena

Welcome back, Michigan. The Wolverines took some time to get going, but dominated the closing stretch against Wisconsin to earn a 67-59 victory in its first game since Jan. 22. A home game against Rutgers is up next. … Creighton has rattled off three consecutive victories since an odd home loss to Georgetown, and has taken six of seven since back-to-back losses in January. The Bluejays are trending in the right direction. …

Something probably not being talked about enough: Oklahoma has its best team since the Buddy Hield-led group that reached the Final Four in 2016. … VCU enters the fray after knocking off St. Bonaventure on Friday. The Rams make the crosstown trip to Richmond on Wednesday in another matchup of teams hovering around the edge of the field. … Siena has played 10 games all season and none this month. The Saints are scheduled to play seven times in a 14-day span starting Saturday.