NCAA tournament bracketology: Brand names have big opportunities this weekend

With the calendar about to turn to March, it becomes easier to sort out the games most likely to have an impact on the NCAA basketball committee’s deliberations in two weeks. And of the teams with the most to gain this weekend, most are established brands in the sport.

Indiana (vs. Michigan, noon Saturday, Fox): The wheels are quickly coming off for the Hoosiers, who have slipped closer and closer to the edge of the field since an 8-5 start. And what a weird six-plus weeks it’s been since then. Indiana has four victories in that span: A double-overtime squeaker at lowly Northwestern, a home victory over road-allergic Minnesota … and a sweep of Iowa.

The Hoosiers (12-11) have dropped three of four, and they catch Michigan coming off victories over Ohio State and Iowa. Their last two regular season games are on the road (Michigan State and Purdue). And they were particularly forgettable at Rutgers on Wednesday, allowing a four-point halftime deficit to balloon to 20 before the Scarlet Knights coasted to the finish line. This might be as pivotal a game as there’s been in the Archie Miller era in Bloomington.

North Carolina (vs. Florida State, 4 p.m. Saturday, ESPN). The Tar Heels’ overall profile is good enough to be in the field — for now. But especially after Wednesday’s home loss to Marquette, North Carolina could use the signature victory it’s been missing all season.

Enter Florida State, winners of four in a row and nine out of 10. The youthful Tar Heels were plenty pesky in a loss in Tallahassee last month, at the time an encouraging sign. North Carolina was bound to be up and down, and there figured to be at least one result like the Marquette outcome. Conversely, everything will probably come together on occasion, too, like last weekend’s bludgeoning of Louisville. Maybe it happens again at the Dean Dome on Saturday.

Xavier (vs. Creighton, 5 p.m. Saturday, Fox). The Musketeers have endured some lousy covid luck. Not only did they play just once between Jan. 10 and Feb. 13 and are on track to lose seven conference games, they won’t get a crack at Big East leader Villanova in the regular season.

That doesn’t leave many high-end opportunities. A visit from Creighton (which won the teams’ first meeting 66-61 just before Christmas) represents the best chance to stabilize Xavier’s tottering NCAA hopes after three losses in its last four games.

Louisville (at Duke, 6 p.m. Saturday, ESPN). It’s undoubtedly a valuable game for both teams. Duke (11-8) has won four in a row, its longest winning streak of the season, but the Blue Devils won’t gain as much from this game as they did from slipping past Virginia a week ago.

As for the Cardinals (12-5), they don’t have a Quadrant 1 victory and this would count as one for now. A sweep of Duke (the home defeat of the Blue Devils counts as a Quadrant 2 triumph in the NCAA’s evaluation metrics) would be a helpful asset if both teams occupy space near the edge of the field. Louisville does have additional chances to impress, though; it closes the season at Virginia Tech and at home against Virginia.

Michigan State (at Maryland, 2 p.m. Sunday, CBS). What a difference two weeks makes. As Valentine’s Day dawned, Michigan State was 10-8, Maryland was 10-10 and the only postseason implications this game appeared to carry were tied to avoiding the first day of the Big Ten tournament.

Maryland has since won four in a row and now enjoys at least some wiggle room relative to the edge of the field. Michigan State ripped off wins against Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State in a span of six days to revive its season, and a victory in College Park would give the Spartans four Quadrant 1 victories in a little more than a week (and six for the season).

Last four included: Connecticut, Saint Louis, Michigan State, Colorado State

First four on the outside: Mississippi, Seton Hall, Indiana, Stanford

Next four on the outside: Duke, Georgia Tech, Richmond, Minnesota

Conference call: Big Ten (9), Big 12 (7), Atlantic Coast (6), Southeastern (6), Big East (4), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), American Athletic (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

Moving in: Connecticut, Drake, Michigan State

Moving out: Indiana, Seton Hall, Stanford

West vs. East, South vs. Midwest

West Region

(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Bryant-SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC/Prairie View A&M

(8) PAC-12/UCLA vs. (9) LSU

(5) Virginia vs. (12) Colorado State/Connecticut

(4) Texas vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo

(3) SOUTHEASTERN/Alabama vs. (14) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty

(6) Oklahoma State vs. (11) Xavier

(7) Virginia Tech vs. (10) St. Bonaventure

(2) Iowa vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Vermont

The only Division I league with multiple undefeated teams in conference play is the SWAC. Prairie View A&M is 9-0 against SWAC foes, while Jackson State is 7-0. They are not scheduled to meet in the final two weekends of the regular season. … Texas has played 13 conference games, nine of them at home. The Longhorns close the regular season with a four-game, nine-day trip to Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma and TCU. They won’t make up a game at Baylor. …

Oklahoma State plays four games in eight days to finish the regular season, including both ends of the Bedlam series on Saturday and Monday. The Cowboys are at the point where they may be able to withstand a complete collapse and remain in the field. … This seeding might be a little high for Virginia Tech, but victories over Villanova and Virginia should keep the Hokies well above the cut line.

East Region

(1) Ohio State vs. (16) COLONIAL/James Madison

(8) Oregon vs. (9) Florida

(5) Southern California vs. (12) OHIO VALLEY/Belmont

(4) Oklahoma vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Furman

(3) Houston vs. (14) CONFERENCE USA/North Texas

(6) Purdue vs. (11) Drake

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Rutgers

(2) BIG EAST/Villanova vs. (15) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

Friday’s loss to Drexel means James Madison will split the regular season CAA title with Northeastern. But there was far worse news for the Dukes with the loss of league scoring leader Matt Lewis to a knee injury for the rest of the season. … The argument for Belmont to land an at-large berth took a hit when the Bruins lost at Eastern Kentucky on Thursday. Casey Alexander’s team is still a considerable favorite in next week’s Ohio Valley tournament. …

Clemson could head into the ACC tournament as one the hottest teams in the league. The Tigers are undefeated in February — 4-0, with a coronavirus pause breaking things up — and finish the regular season with games against Miami, Syracuse and Pittsburgh. … Rutgers stopped the bleeding by dispatching Indiana by 11. The Scarlet Knights still have struggling Nebraska and free-falling Minnesota on the road in the next week.

South Region

(1) BIG 12/Baylor vs. (16) MID-EASTERN/North Carolina A&T-METRO ATLANTIC/Siena

(8) BYU vs. (9) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago

(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) Michigan State/Saint Louis

(4) Tennessee vs. (13) BIG SOUTH/Winthrop

(3) ATLANTIC COAST/Florida State vs. (14) SOUTHLAND/Abilene Christian

(6) Colorado vs. (11) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Wichita State

(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/San Diego State vs. (10) ATLANTIC 10/VCU

(2) Illinois vs. (15) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington

BYU hasn’t gotten much attention the last couple months except on the two occasions it was an unfortunate foil in the Gonzaga Show. But the Cougars have only one loss outside the projected field and are 7-5 in games against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. They’re a rock-solid, middle-of-the-bracket team. … Tennessee doesn’t have much working against it, but it also hasn’t won three in a row in more than a month. That lack of traction is worth keeping in mind heading into next month. …

Colorado has the obvious downside of three Quadrant 3 losses, but it is also .500 on the road, owns a sweep of Southern California, is a metrics favorite and is 9-4 against the top Quadrants. The Buffaloes move up another seed line at the end of the week. … VCU has yet to claim a Quadrant 1 victory, but it leads the country in Quad 2 triumphs. The Rams are 8-0 in those contests and get another one Saturday at Davidson.

Midwest Region

(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) SUN BELT/Texas State

(8) Boise State vs. (9) Louisville

(5) Arkansas vs. (12) HORIZON/Wright State

(4) Kansas vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

(3) Creighton vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate

(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) North Carolina

(7) Missouri vs. (10) Maryland

(2) West Virginia vs. (15) SUMMIT/South Dakota State

Michigan still has at least five games scheduled between now and Selection Sunday, so it could theoretically play its way off the top line. But after back-to-back victories over Ohio State and Iowa, it seems an unlikely outcome for the Wolverines to end up as anything but a No. 1 seed. … Arkansas picked off Missouri, Florida and Alabama in its last three outings to cement its upward trajectory. The Razorbacks have won eight of nine entering Saturday’s visit from LSU. …

Wisconsin hasn’t won back-to-back games in more than a month, but it has no silly losses, a winning road record (5-4), a solid enough 4-6 mark in Quadrant 1 games and a combined 9-8 mark in the top two quadrants. The Badgers haven’t been especially impressive for quite a while, but their overall profile still warrants a No. 6 seed. … Missouri still has at least as many Quadrant 1 victories as everyone other than Gonzaga, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio State, but dropping four out of five has damaged the Tigers’ standing.