NCAA tournament bracketology: Bubble teams to watch on Wednesday

The bottom line for N.C. State (13-10)? Despite a victory at Virginia and another at home against North Carolina, there just isn’t enough to its profile to warrant an at-large nod. Those three losses to Syracuse, which began the week with a better resume, are an easy differentiator.

As for the Orange (16-8), this was always going to be a multi-day task for a team possessing one the most milquetoast resumes near the edge of the field. Syracuse is an underwhelming 1-6 in Quadrant 1 games according to the NET, the sorting tool the NCAA utilizes for comparing teams. But the Orange also had only one puzzling misstep, a Quadrant 3 loss at home to Pittsburgh on Jan. 6.

Syracuse remained a borderline team over the last week precisely because of its innocuousness. While so many other programs imploded in the final week and a half of the regular season, the Orange picked off North Carolina and Clemson at home (to go with an earlier home defeat of Virginia Tech), sat back and watched its stock rise.

Now comes what may very well be an up-or-down vote. Can Syracuse claim what would easily be its best achievement of the season and defeat Virginia in Thursday’s quarterfinals? It might not be win-and-get-in or lose-and-ship-off-to-the-NIT, simply because there could always be a bunch of bid-snatchers emerge over the next few days.

But it sure feels like a win-or-else situation for Jim Boeheim’s team looms in Greensboro. Wednesday doesn’t nudge Syracuse in, but it can’t hurt the Orange to continue its strong play from the final week of the regular season.

Big East first round: Xavier vs. Butler (6 p.m., Fox Sports 1): It’s been a fine mess of a new year for Xavier, which was 10-2 on Jan. 10 before virus issues derailed the Musketeers’ season. They played once in a 34-day span, and then dropped five of seven after getting back to a normal scheduling sequence starting Feb. 13. Back-to-back road losses to Georgetown and Marquette have imperiled Xavier’s NCAA tournament hopes.

Bracket impact: Even with a Feb. 27 defeat of Creighton and a useful nonconference victory over Oklahoma, Xavier is in real danger of falling out of the field. It better not lose to 9-14 Butler, a team it managed to sweep during its stop-and-start season.

ACC second round: Duke vs. Louisville (6:30 p.m., ACC Network): With the formality of drubbing last-place Boston College out of the way, Duke (12-11) faces an immediate need to string together useful victories or face sitting out the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1995. Louisville bested the Blue Devils twice in the regular season, including a riveting 80-73 overtime victory on Feb. 27. Florida State awaits the winner in Thursday’s quarterfinals.

Bracket impact: There might be a path for Duke to make the field of 68 without winning five times in five days in Greensboro, but it’s hard to imagine there’s one that doesn’t involve four victories. None of it matters if the Blue Devils don’t collect a second consecutive triumph.

Big East first round: Providence vs. DePaul (9 p.m., Fox Sports 1): The Friars (13-12) are a super-fringy team, but worth including in part because they’ve proved they can beat just about everyone who is remotely relevant in the Big East other than St. John’s. Providence, the No. 6 seed at the Garden, took down Creighton and Seton Hall on the road, and later upended Connecticut, Xavier and Villanova at home in the last three and a half weeks of the regular season. The Friars are worth monitoring, even with slim at-large hopes.

Bracket impact: “Thou shalt not lose to DePaul” is sage Big East tournament advice that echoes through the ages, or the last decade and a half to be more accurate. While those words aren’t chiseled in stone, the end of Providence’s postseason hopes would be if it loses its first game in New York.

ACC second round: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame (9 p.m., ACC Network): North Carolina is a wonderfully fascinating team. It credibly goes two-deep at both of its post positions, and at least two of those guys usually play well. Kerwin Walton has emerged as a capable backcourt scorer in the second half of the season. And the Tar Heels, 5-4 at the turn of the new year, went 11-5 the rest of the way. At their best, they’re scary. Just ask Louisville and Duke. But with so many freshmen, they’re also scary when they’re at their worst. Just ask Roy Williams. North Carolina might be the team to watch in a fairly wide-open ACC tournament this week.

Bracket impact: North Carolina isn’t missing the tournament, but could it be in danger of falling into a play-in game? That’s probably a stretch, since a loss to Notre Dame (which stormed past Wake Forest on Trey Wertz’s buzzer-beater in Tuesday’s first round) wouldn’t really hurt that much.

Pac-12 first round: Stanford vs. California (10 p.m., Pac-12 Network): For much of the season, Stanford looked like a team bound to wind up in the middle of tournament conversations right up until Selection Sunday. A four-game losing streak changed the calculus. The Cardinal (14-12) does own four Quadrant 1 victories, half of them from home games relocated to Santa Cruz, Calif.

Bracket impact: Beating California (8-19) for the third time won’t be of much help, but a loss would cap a miserable late-season free fall out of postseason contention.

Last four included: Saint Louis, Drake, Mississippi, Xavier

First four on the outside: Boise State, Colorado State, Syracuse, Utah State

Next four on the outside: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Duke, Stanford

Conference call: Big Ten (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 12 (7), Southeastern (7), Big East (4), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American Athletic (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

Moving in: Mount St. Mary’s, Oral Roberts

Moving out: Bryant, North Dakota State

West vs. East, South vs. Midwest

West region

(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/Nicholls State-NORTHEAST/Mount St. Mary’s

(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) LSU

(5) ATLANTIC COAST/Virginia vs. (12) Mississippi/Saint Louis

(4) Creighton vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

(3) Kansas vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate

(6) Tennessee vs. (11) UCLA

(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/San Diego State vs. (10) North Carolina

(2) Ohio State vs. (15) COLONIAL/Drexel

Gonzaga will be the top overall seed in the field after getting into the barn with an unblemished record. … Mount St. Mary’s earned its sixth NCAA trip and first since 2017 by knocking off host Bryant in the Northeast final on Tuesday. The Mount is 7-3 in conference tournament road games since 2013, including two victories this year. … Mississippi (15-10) has won seven of nine, is 5-6 on the road and is a combined 8-8 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games (3-4 in Q1). The Rebels have work to do in the SEC tournament starting Thursday against South Carolina, but their profile holds up well against the edge of the field. …

Kansas will be without forward David McCormack, a second team all-Big 12 pick, for the conference tournament because of covid-19 protocols. That shouldn’t have a major impact on the Jayhawks’ seeding; they’ll end up within a seed line of their current projection as a No. 3. … Drexel will make its first NCAA appearance since 1996 after pulling away from Elon in the CAA title game. It is the Dragons’ fifth NCAA trip and first since joining the CAA.

East Region

(1) Illinois vs. (16) SUMMIT/Oral Roberts

(8) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago vs. (9) Louisville

(5) Colorado vs. (12) BIG SOUTH/Winthrop

(4) BIG EAST/Villanova vs. (13) SOUTHERN/UNC Greensboro

(3) Oklahoma State vs. (14) HORIZON/Cleveland State

(6) PAC-12/Oregon vs. (11) Maryland

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Virginia Commonwealth

(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Alabama vs. (15) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

Could Illinois get dislodged from the top seed line? Maybe, but it will probably require it to bow out early in the Big Ten tournament and for either Alabama or Iowa to claim a conference tournament title. … Oral Roberts blew a 25-point halftime lead in the Summit League final but recovered to defeat North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles are the first non-Dakota team to win the Summit since Oakland in 2011. … With Collin Gillespie done for the season with a knee injury and Justin Moore doubtful for the Big East tournament with a severely sprained ankle, it’s going to be a challenge for Villanova to do much to improve its seeding this week. …

Cleveland State, which had lost at least 21 games in each of the last five seasons, claimed the Horizon League title on Tuesday. Second-year coach Dennis Gates has the Vikings in their third NCAA tournament and first since 2009. … Oregon is 19-6 with three titles in nine Pac-12 tournaments under Dana Altman. It’s best not to underestimate the Ducks in Las Vegas this week.

South Region

(1) BIG 12/Baylor vs. (16) SUN BELT/Appalachian State-MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/North Carolina A&T

(8) Florida vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/St. Bonaventure

(5) Florida State vs. (12) Drake/Xavier

(4) Purdue vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/Western Kentucky

(3) Arkansas vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State

(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Wichita State

(7) Oklahoma vs. (10) Georgia Tech

(2) Iowa vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Hartford

Florida’s resume in practice isn’t as good as it is on paper, but it still won at West Virginia and owns victories over Tennessee and LSU. The Gators will probably be wearing a home jersey in their first postseason game. … One of the more underappreciated programs historically is Western Kentucky, which has made 23 NCAA tournament trips. Its current eight-year NCAA drought is its longest since the 20-year span between appearances in 1940 and 1960. …

Arkansas last earned a No. 3 seed or better in 1995, when it was a No. 2 seed and reached the national title game. The Razorbacks could plausibly get to the No. 2 line with an SEC tournament title. … Wichita State would be an interesting at-large case if it doesn’t win the American Athletic tournament mainly because of the smaller sample size of games. The Shockers (15-4) have done nothing remotely silly and own victories over Houston and Mississippi. Barring an absurd loss (i.e. not in their quarterfinal), here’s guessing they’ll slip in.

Midwest Region

(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN/Prairie View A&M

(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Connecticut

(5) Southern California vs. (12) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo

(4) Texas vs. (13) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty

(3) West Virginia vs. (14) BIG SKY/Southern Utah

(6) BYU vs. (11) Michigan State

(7) Missouri vs. (10) Rutgers

(2) Houston vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Siena

Southern California is a bit of a metric darling, and margin of victory plays a role. The Trojans went 13-2 at home, with 10 of the victories by double figures. … An underrated component of Texas’ profile is a 9-2 record away from Austin (6-2 road, 3-0 neutral). True, road games aren’t the same this season as they normally are, but it should still be an asset when the Longhorns’ seeding is discussed. …

BYU looked fabulous for 20 minutes against Gonzaga in the WCC final, but the scoreboard grades on a 40-minute curve. Expect the Cougars to end up as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed come Sunday. … How far has Rutgers come? It has 21 conference victories over the last two seasons, including a 10-10 mark this season. It had won 21 league games over the previous six seasons combined.