NCAA tournament bracketology: Potential bid snatchers to watch today

Even some teams that should wind up in the field but are a bit flawed exited the scene quickly: Louisville, Michigan State and UCLA, among them.

Then there are the biggest winners: Drake and Saint Louis, who lost in conference tournaments over the weekend and look better and better as so many other programs fade away.

Thursday saw the elimination of all remaining potential bid snatchers in the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten. That leaves only five leagues with the potential to squeeze the at-large field and the games involving those teams in the American, Big East, Mountain West, Pac-12 and SEC are included in this rundown of Friday’s action. …

SEC quarterfinal: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 9 Mississippi State (Noon, ESPN). Early Thursday afternoon, Mississippi State administered the last rites on Kentucky’s miserable season. That it came and went largely unnoticed underscores just how irrelevant the Wildcats were this year. The Bulldogs’ reward? A date with Alabama, which swept Mississippi State (15-13) in a pair of regular season games decided by single digits.

Bracket impact: While Alabama could theoretically land a No. 1 seed if it wins the SEC tournament and gets some help, this game is getting highlighted in case Mississippi State gets on a roll. The Bulldogs are the only true potential bid thief left in the SEC tournament. An Alabama win means there’s one less league for teams at the edge of the field to worry about this weekend.

American Athletic quarterfinals

No. 1 Wichita State vs. No. 8 South Florida (Noon, ESPN2); No. 4 Southern Methodist vs. No. 5 Cincinnati (3 p.m., ESPN2); No. 2 Houston vs. No. 10 Tulane (7 p.m., ESPNU); No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 6 Central Florida (10 p.m., ESPNU)

Let’s lump these together, since only two AAC teams (Wichita State and Houston) would be in the field if the tournament started today. With a Sunday final, the American is always a candidate to have a bid snatcher playing in the closing hours of the season. At the very least, two potential interlopers — including Memphis, which nearly won at Houston on Sunday — will reach the weekend.

Bracket impact: As long as Wichita State and Houston keep winning, there’s no reason for borderline teams to fret. That doesn’t mean SMU/Cincinnati and Memphis/Central Florida won’t be interesting, but they won’t have an immediate bracket impact, either.

Big East semifinal: No. 5 Seton Hall vs. No. 8 Georgetown (6 p.m., Fox Sports 1). If there was a side of a power conference bracket designed for bid-thieving mischief entering the week, it was the top half of the Big East tournament because of top-seeded Villanova’s short-handedness. Sure enough, Georgetown toppled the Wildcats and will face Seton Hall, which outlasted St. John’s in overtime in an NCAA tournament eliminator to snap a four-game losing streak.

Bracket impact: Between the Pirates (14-12) and the Hoyas (11-12), the Big East is guaranteed to have a team in the conference final capable of seizing a spot that otherwise would go to an at-large team. Seton Hall’s close to the field, but beating a sub-.500 Georgetown team won’t help it close the gap. Both teams need to snip the nets at Madison Square Garden to earn their NCAA spot.

Pac-12 semifinal: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Oregon State (8:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network). This is fairly new territory for Oregon State (15-12), which is in the conference semifinals for the first time since 2012 after erasing a 16-point deficit and defeating UCLA in overtime on Thursday. But the Beavers are pesky; they picked off Oregon when the Ducks came off a pause in January and beat everyone in the Pac-12 other than Arizona and Colorado at least once. Plus, they’ve won four consecutive games away from home, though they’re still not a credible at-large candidate. Oregon State is going to require two more victories to earn its second NCAA berth since 1990.

Bracket impact: Oregon’s won six in a row, including a 91-73 rout of Arizona State on Thursday to improve to 20-6 in the Pac-12 tournament under Dana Altman. A Ducks victory not only moves them within a victory of their fourth Pac-12 title since 2013, but also clears the tournament of potential bid snatchers.

Mountain West semifinal: No. 1 San Diego State vs. No. 5 Nevada (9:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network). For fans of Saint Louis, Syracuse and Xavier (among others), San Diego State is bound to be one of their favorite teams over the next two days. The Aztecs are safely in the field no matter what happens, which makes them an ideal candidate to win the Mountain West for teams hoping to snag one of the last few NCAA berths.

Bracket impact: Nevada (16-9) is no pushover. The Wolf Pack finished off Boise State’s at-large hopes Thursday, their third victory over the Broncos since early February. They also upended Colorado State last week to damage the Rams’ hopes. But Nevada’s only path to an NCAA berth is winning the Mountain West tournament, and they’re the last true bid thief left in the event.

SEC quarterfinal: No. 3 LSU vs. No. 6 Mississippi (approx. 9:30, SEC Network). At the risk of seeming like a broken record, Mississippi (16-10) actually boasts a decent profile for a team near the edge of the field. The Rebels are 3-4 in Quadrant 1 games, 4-4 in Quadrant 2 contests, have two slightly questionable home losses (Mississippi State and Georgia), swept Missouri, beat Tennessee and are 6-6 outside of Oxford after dispatching South Carolina in the SEC second round on Thursday.

Bracket impact: With so many other borderline teams flailing this week, the Rebels avoided the only bad loss they could have taken in Nashville this week. It’s hard to envision them getting left out of the field of 68 if they avenge a Jan. 9 loss to LSU, and they might just get in even if this is as far as they go in the SEC tournament.

Mountain West semifinal: No. 2 Utah State vs. No. 3 Colorado State (Midnight, CBS Sports Network). It’s the only game of the day — and possibly the last before the unveiling of the NCAA field — featuring two teams swimming around the edge of the field. Utah State (19-7) clobbered UNLV, 74-53, on Thursday for its fifth win in a row, while Colorado State (18-5) pulled away late for a 72-62 defeat of Fresno State in the late quarterfinal. These teams split two games at Utah State in mid-January.

Bracket impact: This might be a de facto play-in game. Both teams are a combined 3-5 in the top two quadrants of the NET, hardly heady stuff, but Utah State does possess a sweep of San Diego State. Colorado State, whose absence of dubious losses is a distinguishing characteristic, split with San Diego State. The winner will have the opportunity to remove all doubt in Saturday’s title game, while the loser is in for two nerve-racking days before the bracket is announced.

Last four included: Mississippi, Saint Louis, Drake, Colorado State

First four on the outside: Syracuse, Utah State, Seton Hall, Boise State

Next four on the outside: Xavier, Duke, Memphis, St. John’s

Conference call: Big Ten (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 12 (7), Southeastern (7), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Big East (3), American Athletic (2), Missouri Valley (2), Mountain West (2), West Coast (2)

Moving in: Coppin State

Moving out: North Carolina A&T

West Region

(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Coppin State-NORTHEAST/Mount St. Mary’s

(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Clemson

(5) Villanova vs. (12) Drake/Saint Louis

(4) Virginia vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/Western Kentucky

(3) Kansas vs. (14) HORIZON/Cleveland State

(6) Missouri vs. (11) Michigan State

(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia Commonwealth

(2) Ohio State vs. (15) COLONIAL/Drexel

Coppin State moves into the field after the top seed in the MEAC, North Carolina A&T, had to withdraw from the conference tournament because of a positive virus test. Coppin faces Morgan State in Friday’s semifinal, with Norfolk State awaiting the winner Saturday. … Villanova lost to Providence and Georgetown in its two games without injured point guard Collin Gillespie. It’s not hard to envision the committee dropping the Wildcats a seed line or two because of that combination of events. … Virginia is out of the ACC tournament because of a positive virus test. The big question for the Cavaliers isn’t seeding, it’s whether they can string together seven consecutive days of negative testing before their NCAA tournament opener.

There’s some risk of Michigan State being play-in game fodder, but its late defeats of Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan probably allows it to avoid that fate. … There’s a little more to gain seeding-wise for midbracket teams like Florida and Missouri than for teams in the top few lines. Both would be helped by victories Friday — Florida against Tennessee, and Missouri against Arkansas.

East Region

(1) Illinois vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC/Prairie View A&M

(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Louisiana State

(5) Colorado vs. (12) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo

(4) Texas vs. (13) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty

(3) Purdue vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate

(6) Brigham Young vs. (11) UCLA

(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/San Diego State vs. (10) Rutgers

(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Alabama vs. (15) SUMMIT/Oral Roberts

Can Illinois be dislodged from the top line? If the Illini defeat Rutgers in the Big Ten quarterfinals, it doesn’t seem especially likely. Illinois owns 10 Quadrant 1 victories the most in Division I. … North Carolina jumps a seed line after its victory over Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels are 3-8 in Quadrant 1 games, but 8-0 in Quad 2 contests. With 11 combined victories in those two categories, North Carolina has at least as many as everyone except Illinois (15), Gonzaga (14), Michigan (14), Purdue (14), Alabama (13), Iowa (13) and Ohio State (13). …

UCLA is flirting with play-in territory after melting down in the Pac-12 quarterfinals against Oregon State. That’s four losses in a row for the Bruins, whose profile has started to look increasingly similar to Syracuse’s. … This bracket is set up to flip BYU and San Diego State in case the latter wins the Mountain West tournament this week.

South Region

(1) BIG 12/Baylor vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/Nicholls State-METRO ATLANTIC/Saint Peter’s

(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/St. Bonaventure

(5) ATLANTIC COAST/Florida State vs. (12) Colorado State/Mississippi

(4) BIG EAST/Creighton vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

(3) Arkansas vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State

(6) PAC-12/Oregon vs. (11) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Wichita State

(7) Texas Tech vs. (10) Georgia Tech

(2) Iowa vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Hartford

Florida State managed to have ACC quarterfinals canceled on both the front end and (hopefully) the back end of the pandemic. The Seminoles were supposed to tip off just minutes before the ACC canceled last year’s tournament, and then had Thursday’s quarterfinal called off because of Duke’s positive test. … Creighton is the top remaining seed in the Big East tournament after Villanova’s quarterfinal exit. The Bluejays’ ceiling is as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed. …

Does Wichita State get in as an at-large if it doesn’t win the American? There’s a really good chance. The Shockers beat the one lock-solid NCAA team in their league, beat borderline team Mississippi on the road and didn’t absorb a Quadrant 3 or 4 loss. The worst thing they’ve done is play only 19 games, and the committee rightfully isn’t holding virus pauses against teams. … Georgia Tech is into the ACC tournament final for the first time since 2010 after Virginia was forced to withdraw because of a positive test.

Midwest Region

(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) SUN BELT/Appalachian State

(8) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago vs. (9) Virginia Tech

(5) Southern California vs. (12) BIG SOUTH/Winthrop

(4) West Virginia vs. (13) SOUTHERN/UNC Greensboro

(3) Oklahoma State vs. (14) BIG SKY/Southern Utah

(6) Tennessee vs. (11) Louisville

(7) Connecticut vs. (10) Maryland

(2) Houston vs. (15) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

There it is: A Michigan–Appalachian State matchup, the only pairing that would evoke a flood of stories about a 2007 football game. … West Virginia’s loss in the Big 12 quarterfinals to Oklahoma State probably solidifies the No. 4 line as its ceiling. As for the Cowboys, they’re looking more and more like a No. 3 seed at this point. …

There’s nothing memorable about Louisville’s profile, but it should be enough to get them in the tournament. Avoiding a play-in situation? That’s no sure thing. The Cardinals are a slightly better version of UCLA on paper. … Connecticut’s seeding is an interesting situation. The Huskies are 6-1 since James Bouknight’s return from injury, with the sole loss coming at Villanova. A No. 6 or even a No. 5 seed isn’t out of the question with a Big East tournament title. … Maryland took care of what it needed to against Michigan State, and the Terrapins shouldn’t have to worry about getting sent to a play-in game.