Seven bold predictions for NFL free agency
Many teams will still be in position to spend big, however, and there are lots of intriguing players set to hit the open market. Here are some bold predictions for free agency:
The Colts will be this year’s free agency winner.
Indianapolis has one of the NFL’s best rosters and plenty of cap room. The Colts traded for Carson Wentz to replace the retired Philip Rivers, and have options to add talent around him. That figures to start at left tackle, where they need to replace the retired Anthony Castonzo, and possibilities include Alejandro Villanueva of the Steelers and former Chiefs blind-side protector Eric Fisher.
They should be able to re-sign wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, and possibly add another pass catcher like Titans tight end Jonnu Smith. They could also pursue an edge rusher, a list that is headed by Shaquil Barrett.
General Manager Chris Ballard is a firm negotiator who doesn’t overpay, but the cap decrease will result in better players being available for less.
Trent Williams will get the biggest contract.
Last year, quarterbacks topped the free agent market. Rivers and Tom Brady each got $25 million a year. Drew Brees re-signed with New Orleans for $25 million per year. Teddy Bridgewater went to Carolina for $21 million a year.
With Dak Prescott getting his four-year, $160 million deal from Dallas, Jameis Winston is the best quarterback set to hit the open market, but the Saints don’t have the cap space to pay him a salary approaching the $20 million range, and there might not be a significant market for him. The next-best quarterbacks are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton and Mitch Trubisky — none of whom are expected to command a huge contract.
Williams is one of the few players who could receive his real value in this depressed market. The San Francisco 49ers have prioritized re-signing him, and a $20 million per year contract is possible. He’s one of the best left tackles in football, and the Colts and Chargers could go hard after him if the 49ers can’t keep him. But odds favor something getting done with San Francisco.
Running backs will have a hard time getting good deals.
The only back who has a chance at more than $10 million per year is Aaron Jones, and I predict the Packers will re-sign him for a contract somewhere in that range. But the next-best backs — a group that includes Chris Carson, Leonard Fournette and Kenyon Drake — probably can’t get $8 million per year in this market.
Joe Thuney will go to the Bengals for more than $12 million a year.
There isn’t a good guard market this year, as interior linemen are paying a price in this cash-strapped market. Kevin Zeitler, Andrew Norwell, Brandon Brooks and Trai Turner have all been shopped this offseason and could end up getting cut or traded.
With Brandon Scherff receiving the franchise tag from Washington, Thuney is by far the best guard on the market. The Bengals are in desperate need of offensive line help, and could pay up to reinforce their pass blocking in front of second-year quarterback Joe Burrow.
The Patriots will load up on offensive talent.
New England will be the most intriguing team to follow in free agency. Bill Belichick is in a position to upgrade the offense, with $68 million in cap space. His biggest challenge is at quarterback. The move Friday to retain Cam Newton on a one-year deal doesn’t preclude the Patriots from pursuing other options (Jimmy Garoppolo in a trade from San Francisco, perhaps, or Jacoby Brissett in free agency), but it does seem likely at this point that New England will have enough money left over to invest heavily at other positions.
Belichick tends to go for volume in free agency over highly paid players, but given the team’s lack of pass-catching talent, this year could be an exception. It’s very possible he could go for a high-priced wide receiver such as Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster or Will Fuller. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are set to hit the market. The line should be in good shape even if Thuney departs, with Trent Brown returning from the Raiders in a trade.
With eight players expected back after opting out this season, the Patriots have the chance for a much-improved roster next season.
The Dolphins will strike big at wide receiver.
Miami needs a No. 1 receiver, whether that’s for second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa or potentially Deshaun Watson, if the Dolphins are able to pull off a trade for the Texans disgruntled quarterback. Luckily for them, there are still several strong options remaining on the market after Chicago’s Allen Robinson and Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin received franchise tags.
I predict they will go after Golladay, who at 6-foot-4, 214 pounds was a No. 1 target for Detroit before missing most of last season with an injury. If not, Smith-Schuster, Fuller and Corey Davis are options.
There will be a number of one- and two-year deals.
Part of this is a continuation of a recent trend, as only 10 unrestricted free agents signed four- or five-year deals last year, as opposed to 32 three-year deals and 32 two-year deals.
But there could be several players who agree to one- or two-year contracts at a lower annual value with the hope of hitting the market again in a year or two after the salary cap has gone back up. We’ve already seen one example of that with Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David, who agreed to a two-year deal worth $25 million on Tuesday. That $12.5 million annual value is probably less than he would have gotten in a normal year, but the shortened contract gives him a chance to get a bigger deal in 2023.
