Don’t count on blockbusters at this year’s NBA trade deadline. Instead, follow the money.
Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal and Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic have come up in recent rumors, but they have enjoyed long tenures with their current teams and have given no indication, directly or indirectly, that they want out. A trade involving Beal or Vucevic would qualify as a sharp change of direction for organizations that have spent years going out of their way to put off painful rebuilds.
This absence of headliners has shifted the deadline conversation to the roster margins, where several well-known veterans have sought exits from unfavorable positions. Their teams, coping with substantial pandemic-related financial losses and playing in mostly empty arenas, have responded to these entreaties with an eye on the bottom line and an unusually cooperative spirit.
Take the case of Blake Griffin, who played 20 games for the Detroit Pistons this season before the two sides agreed that enough was enough. Detroit, which has the worst record in the East, no longer had use for the 31-year-old Griffin, whose productivity and athleticism have waned due to injuries. Even though Griffin was on the books for $36.6 million this year and $39 million next year, the Pistons reached a buyout agreement that saved them $13.3 million, according to the Athletic. Griffin promptly signed with the Nets, hoping to reach the conference finals for the first time in his 12-year career.
This was an extraordinary agreement on both sides. The Pistons, under new General Manager Troy Weaver, were essentially willing to pay Griffin more than $25 million next season to not play for them so that they could start fresh and lessen their 2021-22 financial hit. Griffin, meanwhile, gave back a sizable chunk of guaranteed money to bandwagon on perhaps the East’s top contender rather than languish on a lottery team’s bench. Griffin’s decision was no doubt made easier by his more than $200 million in career earnings, but his health makes it unlikely that he will be able to sign another top-dollar contract in the future.
In a normal season, the Pistons might have felt public pressure to stick with Griffin, who was easily their most famous and accomplished player, while Griffin’s best exit strategy might have been to play his way into a trade. This year, Detroit was free to aggressively cut ties and Griffin’s contract proved to be too large for anyone to swallow, given that the league has anticipated up to a 40 percent drop in this season’s revenue due to the pandemic.
Similarly collegial standoffs have popped up elsewhere. Andre Drummond hasn’t taken the court for the Cleveland Cavaliers since Feb. 12, and the two-time all-star center looks like another buyout candidate thanks to his $28.8 million expiring contract. The San Antonio Spurs announced this week that LaMarcus Aldridge, a seven-time all-star big man, wouldn’t rejoin the team after the midseason break as the two sides await a trade or buyout of his $24 million salary. Ditto for the Houston Rockets and P.J. Tucker, a veteran 3-and-D specialist who has struggled in the wake of Harden’s exit.
These situations weren’t identical, but they shared a general premise: Why bother going through the motions and keeping up appearances?
Cleveland is one of the league’s worst teams, and it no longer had use for Drummond after acquiring center Jarrett Allen in a midseason trade. San Antonio has been a pleasant surprise in the West, but its success has been driven by younger and more athletic players, forcing the 35-year-old Aldridge into a backup role. Tucker, who entered the season hoping for a new contract, has been a shell of himself and has made little sense for a Houston team that appears intent on tearing it down to build through the draft.
Of the three, Drummond should be the most motivated to find a landing spot where he can earn another real payday. Though he struggles to score efficiently and cover ground defensively, he is an elite rebounder who is still just 27 years old. If Aldridge winds up getting bought out, he would make an intriguing backup center option for plenty of aspiring contenders seeking frontcourt depth. Tucker’s relatively affordable $8 million contract makes him easier to move, and the cost-conscious Rockets could pursue a wider sell-off by cashing out on Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore.
There have been other signals that financial concerns could be a major theme of this year’s deadline. Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck and General Manager Danny Ainge have both suggested in interviews that they might wait until the offseason to use their large trade exception, rather than adding salary in a midseason move. Then, on Friday, the Oklahoma City Thunder agreed to trade Hamidou Diallo to the Pistons, according to ESPN. The deal returned a second-round pick to the rebuilding Thunder, who weren’t inclined to pay to keep Diallo in summer free agency after the third-year wing’s breakout season.
Of course, smaller moves around the deadline still have the power to shape the playoff picture. Last year, the Los Angeles Lakers snagged Markieff Morris, who gave them good minutes en route to the title, and the Miami Heat’s Finals push included key contributions from Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder.
But this year’s market could also be influenced by the expanded playoff field, which will see two extra teams in each conference earn the right to compete in a play-in round. Only a handful of teams — including the Pistons, Magic, Cavaliers and Rockets — entered the second half of the season without a shot at reaching the playoffs. If fringe teams like the Wizards, Thunder, Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings try to make a push up the standings rather than joining the pool of sellers, it could become even trickier for contenders to find that extra piece capable of putting them over the top.
