Final NCAA tournament bracket projections: Selection Sunday has arrived

Nonetheless, it has to be acknowledged as a milestone. The sport has — depending on how you look at it — stubbornly wiggled its way either to the finish line or the starting gate. At least much of it has, anyway. Ten Division I teams didn’t play this season, and a handful of others called things off early. Some others had their seasons end with positive virus tests in their conference tournaments.

For those who usually enjoy everything about a season, the year probably felt fractured. At minimum, a year in mostly or entirely empty arenas made it seem like the sport was being played on sound stages throughout the county.

And then there’s the harsh reality that preceded pandemic hoops: For a significant portion of those who enjoy the national sports landscape, college basketball is viewed as a three-or-four-week sport that effectively begins on Selection Sunday and ends on a Monday in early April.

There remain questions — ethical, rational, empathy-driven — about whether the demands on and sacrifices asked of unpaid college players slogging through a season was fair or reasonable during a public health crisis. These opening paragraphs are for people with those concerns. They’re real and they shouldn’t be glossed over.

The rest is for those who want to have a good idea before the 6 p.m. selection show of how the 68-team field might look, especially after upsets in the Big East (Georgetown over Creighton) and Pac-12 (Oregon State over Colorado) on Saturday night.

How are Georgetown and Oregon State going to be treated?

Probably right around a No. 12 seed for both of them. Pretty much all of the advanced metrics are kinder to Georgetown (13-12), and the Hoyas did go through Villanova and Creighton during its four-games-in-four-days run. Oregon State (17-12) actually has the deeper set of victories, since it beat pretty much everyone of substance in the Pac-12 at some point. It also lost to Wyoming and Portland in early December. Good luck figuring that out.

Who got squeezed out by Saturday’s bid snatchers?

The question of the morning. The teams sitting just outside the current Washington Post projected field are Syracuse, Mississippi, Saint Louis and Colorado State. So either two of them, or perhaps a team currently pegged for a play-in game trip.

Fill in the blanks: There are _____ at-large berths for a ____-team pool.

Depending on the committee’s priorities, six spots for 10 teams sounds about right. That group, in order of projected inclusion at the moment: Louisville, Michigan State, UCLA, Drake, Utah State, Wichita State, Syracuse, Mississippi, Saint Louis and Colorado State.

Is the at-large field set?

There’s one spot in play entering Sunday. If Cincinnati caps a surprising American Athletic tournament run with a victory over Houston, it will cost someone a bid. And if Houston takes care of the Bearcats, the Cougars will deserve a thank-you note and a fruit basket from some team that has its season saved.

Are the No. 1 seeds as easy to identify as it seems?

Yup. Gonzaga will be the No. 1 overall seed, Baylor is going to end up on the top line, and Illinois and Michigan have done enough to land No. 1 seeds — even if Illinois loses Sunday’s Big Ten final to Ohio State.

Between Michigan’s loss Saturday to the Buckeyes and (especially) the indefinite loss of Isaiah Livers to injury, the Wolverines have been knocked down to the fourth No. 1 seed in this projection.

How does the committee treat Drake?

Two years ago, Belmont was a surprise inclusion, ticketed for a play-in game after going 26-5 and losing in the Ohio Valley title game to Ja Morant and Murray State. But the Bruins were 5-3 against the top two quadrants of the NCAA’s NET system, and that seemed to make a difference for them (and the other three teams that just made the cut).

Drake (25-4) is 6-2 against the top two quadrants, went 9-2 on the road and lost to a well-regarded Loyola Chicago bunch in the Missouri Valley final. No year is the same, but the Bulldogs might be this year’s Belmont despite obvious strength of schedule shortcomings created, in part, by the scheduling demands of the season.

Is there a pandemic wild card team?

For months, it seemed like Saint Louis would be that team. The Billikens (14-6) had a five-week pause in the middle of the season, took a couple questionable losses right after they got back but largely acquitted themselves well. Saturday’s upsets did them no favors.

It also makes Wichita State (16-5) the interesting pandemic test case. The Shockers won the American Athletic regular season title, beat Houston, went 5-2 on the road and did little to cause any offense before Saturday’s league tournament loss to Cincinnati. Advanced metrics are not kind to Wichita State, but it also had a nearly two-week gap in late February and early March. How the Shockers are treated is one of the day’s big unknowns.

Will selection criteria be applied in the same way as most years?

With limited out-of-league opportunities (or nonexistent, in some cases) because of the pandemic, it’s hard to imagine nonconference strength of schedule being a major factor, if at all. But the truth is, no one really knows how the committee’s deliberations will change as a result of the unusual quirks this season.

Well, what’s the deal with Duke?

The Blue Devils (13-11) had a positive virus test after they won two games in the ACC tournament. They needed to do more to play their way into the field, and Saturday’s surprises probably nudged them off the committee’s standby list, if they were there to begin with. Duke would have needed seven consecutive days without a positive test to be eligible to play next week in Indianapolis, anyway, but it probably isn’t going to matter.

As for Sunday’s five-game slate, with wins from Colgate (Patriot), St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10) and Alabama (SEC), there are only two games left before the field is revealed.

American Athletic final: No. 2 Houston vs. No. 5 Cincinnati (3:15 p.m., ESPN)

It’s the most important game of the day for bracketing purposes. If Houston (23-3) wins, it will save a borderline tournament team from being part of the NIT and the standby list in case somebody has to bow out because of a positive virus test. If Cincinnati (12-10) pulls a second upset in as many days, the Bearcats will squeeze someone out of the field.

Big Ten final: No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 5 Ohio State (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Both teams are safely on the top two lines — Illinois (22-6) as a projected No. 1 seed, Ohio State (21-8) as a likely No. 2 seed. Don’t expect any change regardless of result, especially with the usual late tip of the Big Ten title game.

Last four included: UCLA, Drake, Utah State, Wichita State

First four on the outside: Syracuse, Mississippi, Saint Louis, Colorado State

Next four on the outside: Boise State, Xavier, Seton Hall, Duke

Conference call: Big Ten (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 12 (7), Southeastern (6), Pac-12 (5), Big East (4), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), Mountain West (2), West Coast (2)

Moving in: Abilene Christian, Georgetown, Iona, North Texas, Ohio, Oregon State, Texas Southern

Moving out: Buffalo, Fairfield, Mississippi, Nicholls State, Prairie View A&M, Saint Louis, Western Kentucky

West vs. East, South vs. Midwest

West Region

(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) SUN BELT/Appalachian State-SOUTHWESTERN/Texas Southern

(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) North Carolina

(5) Tennessee vs. (12) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

(4) Virginia vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/North Texas

(3) BIG 12/Texas vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State

(6) Oregon vs. (11) Drake/Utah State

(7) Missouri vs. (10) Virginia Commonwealth

(2) Iowa vs. (15) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

Virginia needs seven days of negative tests to be eligible to play in the field of 68, and the clock started after a player tested positive entering Friday’s ACC tournament semifinal. The Cavaliers and Kansas are the two known teams very much in the spotlight for this issue. … UC Santa Barbara is 18-1 since the calendar flipped to 2021, and the Gauchos are back in the tournament for the first time since 2011 after winning the Big West final on Saturday. …

Texas just won the Big 12 tournament for the first time in the league’s quarter-century existence. The Longhorns, who beat Oklahoma State on Saturday, were 0-6 in their previous Big 12 title game appearances. … This bracket is set up to flip Virginia Commonwealth and St. Bonaventure should the Rams win the Atlantic 10 final. Don’t be stunned if it looks like the committee built a similar contingency into its plans.

East Region

(1) Michigan vs. (16) SUMMIT/Oral Roberts

(8) LSU vs. (9) Clemson

(5) Villanova vs. (12) PAC-12/Oregon State

(4) West Virginia vs. (13) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty

(3) Kansas vs. (14) SOUTHLAND/Abilene Christian

(6) Southern California vs. (11) Michigan State

(7) Connecticut vs. (10) Rutgers

(2) SEC/Alabama vs. (15) COLONIAL/Drexel

It’s a regional with a pair of noteworthy injuries. Michigan probably won’t lose a No. 1 seed over Isaiah Livers’ injury, but it’s not impossible. Villanova is more likely to be evaluated a line lower than its resume suggests because of point guard Collin Gillespie’s season-ending knee injury. … There were four likely NCAA tournament teams when the Pac-12 tournament began. Oregon State beat three of them — UCLA, Oregon and Colorado — to earn only its second NCAA bid since 1990. Give the Beavers their due: They earned it. …

Don’t be stunned if Michigan State winds up in a play-in game. The Spartans are a combined 9-12 in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 games, which is not ideal, and the 3-9 record away from East Lansing is not easy on the eyes. … Alabama looks like it is locked into the No. 2 line, regardless of the SEC tournament final outcome against LSU.

South Region

(1) Baylor vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Mount St. Mary’s-MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Norfolk State

(8) Loyola Chicago vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/St. Bonaventure

(5) Florida State vs. (12) BIG EAST/Georgetown

(4) Purdue vs. (13) SOUTHERN/UNC Greensboro

(3) Arkansas vs. (14) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington

(6) BYU vs. (11) UCLA/Wichita State

(7) Texas Tech vs. (10) Virginia Tech

(2) Ohio State vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Iona

Georgetown will almost certainly land its lowest seed in its 28 tournament trips since seeding began in 1979. The Hoyas were a No. 10 seed in both 1997 and 2001. Here’s guessing they won’t care if they’re a No. 12 seed after winning four games in four days during a stunning Big East title run. … Norfolk State will make only its second NCAA trip; the first one was memorable, a 15-over-2 upset of Missouri in 2012. But it’s not as if the Spartans haven’t been close; they’re 92-32 in MEAC play in eight seasons under coach Robert Jones. …

UCLA is part of a group of teams (Louisville, Syracuse and Colorado State) that can claim they didn’t seriously mess up as one of their top qualifications for an at-large berth. The Bruins are flirting with play-in territory after losing four in a row to close the regular season. … Iona will get a lot of attention this week thanks to coach Rick Pitino, who has the Gaels back in the tournament in his first season at the school. It’s the fifth team Pitino has led to an NCAA berth, after Boston University, Providence, Kentucky and Louisville. Only Lon Kruger and Tubby Smith can match that feat.

Midwest Region

(1) BIG TEN/Illinois vs. (16) AMERICA EAST/Hartford

(8) ACC/Georgia Tech vs. (9) Oklahoma

(5) Colorado vs. (12) BIG SOUTH/Winthrop

(4) Creighton vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Ohio

(3) Oklahoma State vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate

(6) MOUNTAIN WEST/San Diego State vs. (11) Louisville

(7) Florida vs. (10) Maryland

(2) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Houston vs. (15) HORIZON/Cleveland State

Hartford will play in the NCAA tournament for the first time after handling UMass Lowell in the America East final. The America East has produced a first-time NCAA tournament team six times since 2003. Joining the Hawks as a tournament newbie is WAC champion Grand Canyon. … Does the committee give extra credit to Georgia Tech for its two-game ACC tournament title? Probably a little. The Yellow Jackets have won eighth in a row, are making their first NCAA trip since 2010 and are celebrating their first ACC title since 1993. …

Considering the bid-snatching on Saturday, Maryland should be grateful it summoned a stellar performance against Michigan State in its Big Ten tournament opener. The Terrapins would have been in serious jeopardy of landing in a play-in game without that victory. … Houston will be one of seven Texas teams in the field, joining Abilene Christian, Baylor, North Texas, Texas, Texas Southern and Texas Tech. That will tie the single-state record, set by California in 2002 and matched by Texas in 2010.