Three teams that can win the women’s NCAA tournament (besides Stanford and UConn)
Stanford, the top overall seed looking for its third national championship, easily dispatched No. 16 seed Utah Valley before an 11-point win over No. 8 Oklahoma State. Connecticut, the presumed second-best team in the field, throttled No. 16 seed High Point and No. 8 seed Syracuse, winning its second-round game 83-47. They remain the teams to beat. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for a spoiler or two to make a run at the national title.
The projections at FiveThirtyEight give Stanford a 27 percent chance to win it all. They give Connecticut a 26 percent chance. That leaves almost a 50 percent chance for another team to create some unexpected havoc. There aren’t many holes in either favorite’s roster, but here are three contenders with a chance to exploit their possible weaknesses and cut down the nets.
No. 2 Baylor (River Walk Region)
Chance to win the national title: 18 percent
Baylor has one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, scoring 89.8 points per 100 possessions (which ranks in the 92nd percentile, per Synergy Sports). The Lady Bears are very effective in transition, especially when the ball is in NaLyssa Smith’s hands. The Big 12 player of the year is a sparkling 20 for 21 on fast-break possessions when she gets to the rim down the middle of the lane. She can also bang around in the restricted area alongside Queen Egbo. The two are a combined 83 for 179 (46 percent) from the field on post-up plays and are shooting 67 percent on put-backs off offensive rebounds.
One other player to watch is DiJonai Carrington, the Big 12′s sixth player of the year. Carrington was one of the best spot-up shooters in the country, scoring over a point per possession in those situations. That could expose a weakness in a potential national final against Stanford guard Lexie Hull, who was below average at slowing down spot-up shooters.
Baylor, which next faces No. 6 seed Michigan before a potential Elite Eight meeting with UConn, would need to limit Connecticut in transition. The Huskies are one of the best at converting fast-break opportunities, but few defenses are better than Baylor’s at shutting that down. The Lady Bears allowed opponents to score only slightly more often than a third of the time in transition, which is in stark contrast to how often Connecticut was successful (54 percent). Take away the transition game, and the Lady Bears’ half-court offense is more than good enough to go toe-to-toe with anyone.
If that’s not enough, the Lady Bears may be adding a new wrinkle to their game plan. Baylor made just 93 three-point shots during the regular season (3.4 per game), the least among the top eight seeds, but drained six shots from behind the arc in the first round and six more in a second-round thrashing of Virginia Tech.
No. 2 Maryland (Hemisfair Region)
Chance to win the national title: 12 percent
The Big Ten regular season and tournament champions have won 14 straight games and are the No. 2 team in the country behind Connecticut according to the Her Hoop Stats power rankings. (Like Ken Pomeroy’s rankings of men’s teams, these take into account strength of schedule.) Sophomore guard Ashley Owusu has been dominant all season, leading the nation’s most-efficient scoring offense with 18.1 points per game and also chipping in 5.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds per contest. Fellow all-American guard Katie Benzan leads the nation from beyond the arc, shooting 51 percent on three-point attempts. The two lead an offense that ranks in the 94th percentile or better in scoring efficiency via spot-up shooting, off the pick-and-roll, on cuts to the basket and on second-chance opportunities off offensive rebounds. They also are one of the best at converting in transition.
But this is far from a two-person show. Diamond Miller adds 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game and Chloe Bibby contributes 13.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Angel Reese, a 6-foot-3 freshman and one of the top high school prospects last year, missed most of the season with a fractured foot. But she’s back, and her rebounding and shot-blocking rates are among the best in the country. Her player efficiency rating (35.4) also ranks 17th among all players who averaged at least 15 minutes a game.
Maryland should also be able to get to the rim without much interference against almost any opponent. Miller, Mimi Collins and Faith Masonius can all work well near the basket. If the Terps survive No. 6 seed Texas and potentially No. 1 seed South Carolina, that skill would put Stanford’s rim protection to the test in a potential Final Four meeting. Stanford ranked in just the 14th percentile against runners to the basket and also had trouble defending opponents in isolation on their way to the rim. That could spell disaster if Owusu, one of the best players in the sport in one-on-one situations, decides to make that her focus.
No. 1 South Carolina (Hemisfair Region)
Chance to win the national title: 9 percent
Senior guard LeLe Grissett is out with an ankle injury, forcing the Gamecocks to tweak their rotation. Grissett averaged 6.7 points and 4.2 rebounds off the bench; her replacement, 6-foot-4 Laeticia Amihere, is two inches taller than Grissett, giving South Carolina even more size up front. Coach Dawn Staley now plays Amihere alongside starting forwards Victaria Saxton (6-foot-2) and Aliyah Boston (6-foot-5), a formidable trio.
Saxton is one of the best at converting second-chance opportunities off the offensive glass (1.2 points per put back, ranking in the 83rd percentile) and Boston is also very good (1.2, 79th percentile). Both can also dominate in the low post, combining for 154 points on 156 possessions. Amihere’s game isn’t as polished as her two frontcourt teammates, but she can score around the basket and block shots on the defensive end. Her 27 blocked shots in 27 games put her in the 92nd percentile for block rate per 100 possessions, per Her Hoop Stats.
Boston, meanwhile, had one of the highest player efficiency ratings of the season (32.3) plus an impact of +50 net points per 100 possessions. In the first round against Mercer she tallied 20 points and 18 rebounds, following that up with 19 and seven in a second-round win over Oregon State.
If South Carolina beats No. 5 seed Georgia Tech and either Maryland or Texas, Stanford would likely await in the Final Four. The Cardinal loves to use its deep roster of spot-up shooters to spread the defense and find seams, but South Carolina’s defense rarely cracks. The Gamecocks held opponents to 25 percent shooting from the field on spot-up shots, and nine of their players ranked in the top half of the nation for defending them one on one.
South Carolina could also use Zia Cooke off screens more often. The sophomore guard scores 43 percent of the time off this play and Stanford’s Kiana Williams, Anna Wilson and Hannah Jump were all below average defending off screens. Boston isn’t as involved in ball screens as Cooke but she, too, is efficient when called upon.
