Why a California recall is unlikely to draw Schwarzenegger-level star power

Thanks to the Hollywood dream machine, McConaughey made the leap from University of Texas frat bro to Oscar-winning actor. Johnson, a former professional wrestler, is almost a reincarnation of Arnold Schwarzenegger: brawn coupled with a business brain that has paid off extravagantly.

And yet, even though the state that made their careers possible could be in urgent need of new leadership later this year, neither star appears interested in following the Schwarzenegger model: A civic-minded ride to the rescue of the Golden State with an invitingly brief political campaign (under California law, candidates can file as late as 59 days before the recall vote).

Next week, the likelihood of a recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will become apparent when the 58-county deadline for verifying petition signatures reveals whether the movement has obtained the required 1.5 million signatures.

Why such seeming reluctance by McConaughey and Johnson to govern America’s nation-state? Perhaps it’s as simple as a couple of A-listers preferring original content to a sequel. Or maybe they remember how the original blockbuster turned out for Schwarzenegger. Three months into office, the “Governator” enjoyed a 65 percent job approval rating; by the end of his seven-year run in Sacramento, Schwarzenegger was more villain than action hero. He left office the lowest rated California governor in more than half a century.

I have another theory. They may be in on a dirty little secret, one that a recall sequel could lay bare: In California, “celebrity” ain’t what it used to be.

Figure it thus: In 2003, Schwarzenegger turned a California special election into a two-month spectacle that stirred worldwide attention. That won’t be the case if the biggest Hollywood luminary to join the recall slate is Jenner, the Republican former Olympic decathlete and Kardashian stepparent who came out as a trans woman six years ago and subsequently underwent sex reassignment surgery.

Nothing against Jenner, but she’s not even the biggest star in her extended family. Moreover, she has already been recalled once before: Five years ago, the E! cable channel canceled her “I Am Cait” docuseries after only two seasons; meanwhile, “Keeping Up With the Kardashians” is in the midst of its 20th and final season.

What would a 2021 recall race offer in the way of entertainment glitz, other than Jenner? Former porn actress Mary Carey and Los Angeles billboard icon Angelyne, each a holdover from the 2003 recall contest, have indicated they’ll run again.

But beyond that? Welcome to a California in which fame has been redefined thanks in part to technology that didn’t exist when Schwarzenegger terminated a sitting governor, but did come to life during his gubernatorial reign.

In 2021, there’s nothing stopping a popular (by number of followers) yet obscure (you’ll never see them handing out Oscars) social-media “star” from jumping into a recall contest. For that, you can thank two quirks of California election law. It’s ridiculously cheap to run in a gubernatorial recall — a $4,200 filing fee is all that’s required — and the state seemingly cares little about adult supervision. Any registered voter who’s been a resident of the Golden State five years before Election Day and a U.S. citizen for at least five years can serve as governor, regardless of age.

That almost invites a self-promotional invasion by young TikTok influencers. Schwarzenegger was a celebrity but also someone with a serious conservative political outlook and the ability to effortlessly rise above the crowd of unserious candidates who flocked to the 2003 recall. That wouldn’t be so easy for high-profile candidates this time around. And, in any case, governing California isn’t as appetizing a prospect as it was 18 years ago.

The state may be paradise for entertainment and tech titans, but a hard slog for its working class, given the paucity of affordable housing and a high cost of living. And now, even Silicon Valley residents are decamping for more attractive options — such as Texas, where, by the way, a poll released on Sunday showed Gov. Greg Abbott (R) losing to one Matthew McConaughey.

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