The danger isn’t that China’s Evergrande will collapse. It’s that it won’t.

It is of course possible that an Evergrande collapse will touch off a contagion beyond even the mighty powers of the Chinese government to control. But, more likely, Evergrande can’t fail, much less touch off a Chinese recession, unless China’s President Xi Jinping wants it to. Still less likely that it will cascade to the rest of us, because, by design, the Chinese financial system is walled off from global capital markets.