The midterms could be a bloodbath for Democrats. And there may be little that candidates can do about it.
And it could be even worse. Biden currently has a negative 14.4-point job approval rating on the RealClearPolitics average, a massive 18.9-point shift from 2020. If the 2021 trend holds firm and Biden doesn’t improve those numbers — and historical analysis from Inside Elections guru Nathan L. Gonzales suggests that’s unlikely — every Democrat in a district or state that he won by less than that amount could be seriously threatened. That includes seven Democratic senators up for reelection in 2022 — including Colorado’s Michael F. Bennet and Oregon’s Ron Wyden. Even Washington’s Patty Murray, already facing a well-funded challenger in Republican Tiffany Smiley, hails from a state Biden won by a bit more than 19 points. A 2021-style clean sweep on current polling data would give the GOP 57 Senate seats, more than any time since after the 1920 election. House Democrats could be looking at a loss of 60 members or more.
