Fears of Ukraine invasion rise as top Russian commanders fly to Belarus for massive joint military drill

“Russia and Belarus have encountered unprecedented threats, the nature and, perhaps, concentration of which are, unfortunately, much larger and much more dangerous than before,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

In Ukraine, troops will begin drills Thursday using armed drones and antitank weapons provided by the United States and other NATO members. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said the drills, scheduled to take place through Feb. 20, are a response to the Russian exercises near the border.

Reznikov said Tuesday that Ukraine hopes to receive military equipment soon from the West that “we have long dreamed of.” He did not offer details.

Reznikov said Russia has massed 140,000 service members in the region. After months of buildup on Ukraine’s borders, military analysts are warning that the final military pieces are largely in place for a major Russian operation that could topple Kyiv’s pro-Western government.

In Washington, the White House approved a plan for U.S. troops in Poland to help Americans leaving Ukraine if Russia attacks. Officials have stressed that the troops will not enter Ukraine but will provide logistical support for U.S. citizens after they cross the border into Poland. The Biden administration has urged Americans to consider departing now before it becomes more difficult to do so.

“These are multi-mission forces, trained and equipped for a variety of missions to deter aggression and to provide reassurance to NATO Allies,” said a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss administration deliberations. “We are constantly evaluating the evolving security situation and planning for a range of contingencies as we always do, but to be clear we are not planning for a mass evacuation of American citizens from Ukraine. President Biden has been clear that we believe Americans in Ukraine would be wise to leave Ukraine.”

Shuttle diplomacy by top U.S. and European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron’s trips to Moscow and Kyiv this week, have produced no clear breakthrough.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Wednesday that President Biden had spoken to Macron following his meetings and that she expected the president to speak with other European leaders this week.

She said that Russia had not changed its behavior and was taking “escalatory” steps.

Moscow is demanding a sweeping rewrite of the post-Cold War European security order, including an end to NATO expansion and the removal of alliance forces and troops from Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.

Washington and NATO have rejected these demands, offering limited, reciprocal measures on arms control and military exercises in written submissions to the Kremlin. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Wednesday that Russia is still considering its response to the proposals and that a final decision would be made by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ryabkov said that “everything else depends” on whether the United States and NATO are willing to negotiate seriously on Russia’s demands. But so far, he said, the U.S. proposal to Russia contained “unacceptable statements,” while NATO’s document offered “rudeness and defiant language.”

NATO diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly about internal strategic discussions, said they worry that Putin’s demands are so expansive that there is little or no room for a compromise that all sides would find acceptable.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that the only way to de-escalate the crisis was for Western countries to remove the weapons they have supplied Ukraine, to withdraw military instructors from Ukraine and to halt NATO-Ukrainian exercises.

“We don’t have such aggressive plans, but I have a feeling that the U.S. has them,” she said in a news briefing.

An opinion poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that a majority of people in six of the seven countries surveyed thought Russia was likely to invade Ukraine. The poll suggested that Europeans support efforts by NATO, the European Union and United States to stand up for Ukraine and that they believe Russian aggression against Ukraine could affect European security.

The survey in late January found that expectations of a Russian invasion of Ukraine were highest in Poland (73 percent) and Romania (64 percent), former Warsaw Pact countries that were aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In France, Italy and Germany, just over half the population thought Russia would invade Ukraine.

The survey found that the majority of respondents saw Russian action against Ukraine as posing potential threats to Europe in terms of energy supplies, military action and cyberattacks. Sixty-two percent thought NATO should come to Ukraine’s defense; 60 percent thought the European Union should do so, and 54 percent thought the United States should defend Ukraine

Russia has announced the deployment of S-400 surface-to-air missiles, Pantsir air defense systems and Su-35 fighter jets to Belarus for the exercise. Russian and Belarusian officials have said Russian troops will return to their base after the maneuvers.

Russia’s ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, told Russian television Wednesday that Russia would supply advanced weapons to Belarus to reinforce his county’s western flank, saying this should not come as a surprise to Western leaders. He offered no details, although the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko told journalists in November that he wanted to deploy “several battalions” of Iskander ballistic missile systems in the south and west of Belarus.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss arrived in Moscow on Wednesday for a two-day visit and will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. She warned recently that Russia faces tough sanctions if it attacks Ukraine, including moves against Russian oligarchs and figures close to Putin who help to keep him in power.

She plans “to call on the Kremlin to de-escalate and stop the aggression against Ukraine,” according to a British Foreign Office statement Wednesday.

In Australia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said American officials have engaged in 200 diplomatic meetings, calls and video conferences in recent weeks “where we have been working to coordinate all of our partners in standing up to this Russian aggression directed toward Ukraine.”

Blinken is in Melbourne for a meeting of the representatives of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad countries — Australia, Japan, India and the United States — a grouping viewed with distrust in Beijing and Moscow.

Congressional leaders in the United States also joined Biden in downplaying any ambiguity about Germany’s support for ending a major natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany if Moscow attacks.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who had dinner with Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday alongside other lawmakers, said the German leader had assured them behind closed doors that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project would be abandoned — as promised by Biden — if Moscow again sends forces into Ukraine.

Scholz, who is from a center-left party that has Russia-friendly elements, has not made such a definitive commitment in public.

Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Washington Post Live that he left the same dinner “convinced” that Berlin is in lockstep with Washington on potential actions in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine. He also signaled there is strong support on both sides of U.S. politics for sanctions to severely punish Moscow if it launches a renewed invasion.

“There is no light, I think, between Democrats and Republicans on the desire and the need to push back on Vladimir Putin and to exact enormous consequences for any miscalculation of an invasion by Putin,” he said. “The only questions may be some of the specific tactics to do that.”

Lawmakers negotiating a bill that would allow for punitive measures against Russia are getting “closer and closer” to a deal, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday. One remaining point of difference is whether to impose sanctions before or after any renewed Russian invasion, he said.

U.S. and European officials are eyeing the next 12 days with increasing concern, fearing that the Russian military exercises scheduled to start Thursday could provide cover for a sudden strike against Ukraine and that the Feb. 20 conclusion of the Winter Olympics in Beijing will clear a potential diplomatic barrier for Putin, who may fear upstaging Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Pannett reported from Sydney and Parker and Harris from Washington. Michael Birnbaum and Amy B Wang in Washington contributed to this report.