Why AMLO Is Asking Mexico’s Voters If He Should Quit

By Max de Haldevang and Maya Averbuch | Bloomberg,

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s white-haired, folksy president, is telling voters to go to the polls April 10 and decide whether he should resign instead of serving until 2024, when his single six-year term will end. The populist leader has a history of using referendums as a tool to energize his working class base, but this will be the first time he’s turned the question on himself.

Polls are now open until 6pm local time Sunday.

1. Why did the president propose a referendum?

A firm believer in direct democracy, AMLO, as the president is known, promised during his 2018 campaign to give Mexicans a chance to kick him out of office after starting the second half of his presidency as a way for voters to hold him accountable. In 2019, congress changed the constitution to allow for such a referendum. Since he is barred by law from running again, the poll is an opportunity for Lopez Obrador, 68, to invigorate voters. Just over two years ahead of the next election, he is nearing what often becomes a “lame duck” phase for Mexican presidents as the media’s magnifying glass turns toward who might be the next leader.

2. Is he putting his tenure at risk?

The chances that Lopez Obrador will lose are minimal. Polls suggest AMLO will canter to victory. El Financiero newspaper found in a survey published the week before the vote that 67% of respondents wanted him to stay in office. Another poll found his approval rating to be 57%, even if his government is reproved in key categories such as economy, security and corruption. 

3. What would he get out of a victory?

Lopez Obrador has not managed to push through all parts of his ambitious, nationalist agenda, as his Morena party alliance is short of the two-thirds majority needed in each chamber of congress to change the constitution — that’s important for pushing through reforms, on everything from energy to electoral reform, that aim to transform Mexico for decades to come. If he wins a striking show of voter support, some analysts suggest he could also use the result as a cudgel against lawmakers refusing to back his reforms — and to remind members of Morena that he’s still the boss.

4. Will people turn out to vote?

All eyes will be on the turnout. The political opposition, which includes three main parties in a center-to-right coalition, has called Mexicans to avoid participating in a vote it considers “misleading.” Turnout matters for two reasons: The law requires 40% participation for the vote to be binding — a high number unlikely to be achieved given legal restrictions on the government’s ability to campaign and the fact that fewer polling stations will be open, thanks in part to the president’s own austerity policies that left the electoral institute underfunded, and the vote falls at a time when the country is preparing for public holidays over the Easter break. The president has said he will respect the outcome of the referendum even if not enough people vote. But turnout is likely to also be taken as a big a sign of AMLO’s standing with the public as the vote results. Proving that voters care about him enough to spend a chunk of their Sunday in line to check a box showing their support. Many millions showing up would be a punchy endorsement of his government.

5. What happens if nobody shows up?

If participation is low, say under 10%, Lopez Obrador may be under pressure to justify the need of this vote. He will likely use the poor numbers to continue his longstanding attacks on the electoral institute, which he is trying to reform and has accused of obstructing a democratic exercise. “This president is very good at taking whatever happens and turning it into whatever is good for him,” said Alejandra Soto, associate director in the Mexico office of global consultancy firm Control Risks. “He will say it’s because the electoral authorities didn’t do their job at promoting, people don’t know where to go to vote.” Lopez Obrador cut the institute’s budget last year, over the objections of the body’s director, who said the move would make it hard to hold the referendum.

Read More: AMLO Seeks to Replace Electoral Regulator, Court by Direct Vote

6. Will there be more referendums?

The constitution says that citizens can set in motion a vote on future presidents, if they gather enough signatures. Plus, given this government’s penchant for referendums, it looks like there’ll be more for as long as Morena leads. None have been proposed for now. But the president has in the past backed votes on whether to cancel a new Mexico City airport project (he did), whether former presidents should be investigated for corruption (they haven’t) and whether a large brewery should be built in Mexicali, a northern city with water access problems (it won’t). All votes lacked the turnout to be binding under current laws, but the president still argued the voice of the people was heard through these exercises.

7. Where can I follow the results?

Voting starts 8 a.m. in most of Mexico and closes 6 p.m. The electoral institute will post news on its website — www.ine.mx — or you can find the results on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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