Vance’s win cannot mask the GOP counterstrikes against Trump

And yet Tuesday may someday be considered a turning point in the ex-president’s quest to regain the White House. Because it was in Ohio that other Republicans began to take Trump on.

Consider that Vance won the primary by seven percentage points, with 81 percent of precincts reporting. That means 69 percent of Ohio Republicans voted for someone else, despite Trump (and, separately, one of his sons) flying in to stump for Vance in the final days.

Consider, too, that the Republican who gave Vance his biggest scare as the race closed was the only candidate who didn’t bend the knee for Trump. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose billionaire family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, surged late by appealing to moderates and traditional conservatives who are exhausted by Trump and his antics. He came in third.

There were other signs of counterrevolution. The Club for Growth, which backed former state treasurer Josh Mandel, ran ads attacking Vance even after Trump endorsed him and then asked the group to stop. Over the final weekend, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) barnstormed with Mandel, who finished second, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) appeared with businessman Mike Gibbons, who came in fourth.

One other data point: Trump publicly suggested that someone should take on Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike DeWine after he congratulated Joe Biden on winning the 2020 election. Former congressman James B. Renacci obliged, but Trump decided not to endorse him after being told by advisers that DeWine would probably still win anyway. Renacci was at Trump’s central Ohio rally last month, but Trump said nothing about the governor’s race. DeWine won his primary by 19 points on Tuesday.

Such outcomes help explain why Trump has become more cautious about endorsements since backing several losers early in the midterm cycle. In March, he withdrew his endorsement of Rep. Mo Brooks after polls showed him tanking in the Alabama Senate primary. Trump’s first pick for Senate in Pennsylvania, Sean Parnell, dropped out in November after a judge concluded that he had abused his wife, despite his denials, and gave her custody of their children. Trump will campaign outside Pittsburgh on Friday with Mehmet Oz, a talk-show host whom many physicians consider a quack. Despite that endorsement, Oz remains locked in a competitive race with former hedge-fund manager David McCormick ahead of the May 17 primary.

A bigger reckoning may await Trump in Georgia. Polls show Gov. Brian Kemp widening his lead over Republican primary challenger David Perdue, the former senator Trump recruited to run because Kemp wouldn’t participate in the conspiracy to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. Former vice president Mike Pence’s top adviser, Marc Short, is helping Kemp. Former president George W. Bush plans to appear at a fundraiser for the governor soon.

The modest GOP skirmishing that started in Ohio will look like open warfare as the May 24 Georgia primary nears. A Kemp victory in three weeks would embolden and empower other conservative figures who have struggled to push Trump to the margins before 2024. And if Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) pull off victories despite overwhelming Trump hostility, the dragon may look wounded, if not slayable.

There were no exit polls from Tuesday’s vote for political priests to read and augur. But Fox News asked Ohio GOP voters in its final pre-election survey whether they’d like to see Trump run for president again. Only 60 percent said yes. That was enough to get Vance across the finish line in largely a five-way race. It might even be enough for Trump to win the Republican nomination in 2024.

But it also signals an opening for an alternative.