When it comes to defining battles of the invasion of Ukraine so far, few have captured the imagination like the siege of Mariupol. For months, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been holed up in underground tunnels beneath the sprawling Azovstal steel factory, preventing Russian forces from gaining full control of the port city and becoming a symbol of all Moscow’s war woes.
Mariupol siege endgame means very different things for Kyiv and Moscow
These holdouts, with the aid of social media videos showing many children among those in the Azovstal plant, have been able to win global attention for a fight that has been far longer than anyone expected. But it was always a doomed battle; outnumbered, outgunned and with little evidence of Russian mercy. Mariupol’s last defenders could do little other than delay the inevitable.
With reports that Russia, after allowing a partial evacuation of civilians from the site, was now storming Azovstal, it looks like the final battle for Mariupol may finally be upon us after eight weeks. For Ukrainians and their supporters, it will likely be remembered as a heroic last stand, compared already to the legendary Battle of Thermopylae.
But for the Kremlin and the Russians who support its war effort, the battle holds a very different symbolic weight: A belated justification for the idea that Russia is seeking the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. That Russia’s push into Azovstal comes just days before President Vladimir Putin is due to speak at a May 9 “Victory Day” parade commemorating the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 only adds further to the historical scale.
“The Kremlin likely intends to claim some sort of victory in Mariupol to present a success to the Russian people, though Russian forces are highly unlikely to halt offensive operations across Ukraine on this date,” analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Wednesday.
For Ukraine, the battle for Azovstal may have been doomed. But many experts argue it served a key strategic purpose, pulling Russian troops away from other battles and negating their attempts to build a land corridor along the southern coast of Ukraine to Crimea. This diversion provided Ukrainian forces with time to regroup and be resupplied with new, often more advanced weapons by its Western backers.
“The main importance of Mariupol now lies in the fact that it has absorbed large parts of the Russian army in the south. If the Russians capture the city, it would release these soldiers, their equipment, as well as the artillery, logistics and air force that supports them, to the new Russian offensive in the east,” retired military leader Mick Ryan wrote for the Sydney Morning Herald on April 19 — now more than two weeks ago.
Observers have compared it to the last stand of a small band of Spartan warriors in the face of Persian hordes at the Battle of Thermopylae in 480 B.C. That famous battle has become a symbol of a doomed but noble fight, even if co-opted by Hollywood studios and far-right politicians in recent years. And the symbolism in Mariupol is rife.
Russia has been accused of devastating attacks on civilian life in the city ― including one on a maternity hospital that may have killed up to 600 people. Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, the dominant economic force in the city, stopped producing steel for only the second time in its almost 90-year history. The first time was when Mariupol was occupied by Nazi troops between 1941 and 1943.
Soldiers, including many from the controversial Azov Regiment, used the site’s underground tunnels to hold out as Russia took over the city. But many civilians also entered the site. At least 100 have been evacuated so far, with Ukraine claiming that Russia continued shelling immediately after the evacuation had begun. Those who escaped describe harsh conditions inside and a devastating sight when they saw what was left of the city outside.
“Nothing is real anymore,” one evacuee told reporters from The Post this week.
Victory for Russia in Mariupol would mean more than just taking one city. On Monday, when Putin is expected to appear at the annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, many believe he will use the occasion to outline the next steps of the war — with some fearing that after all the setbacks in the war, he could call for a national mobilization against Ukraine.
Forcing Mariupol’s last defenders from Azovstal could give him a victory to celebrate. Of particular importance are the troops making the steel plant their last refuge: the Azov Regiment.
The Azov Regiment, now a part of Ukraine’s National Guard, formed first as the Azov Battalion in 2014 in response to armed revolts led by Russian-backed separatist groups in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. With the help of steelworkers from Azovstal, they helped oust these forces from Mariupol, presenting a major defeat for Putin’s hopes of bringing the Donbas region under his control.
In 2014, the Azov Battalion had a far-right, verging on Nazi viewpoint that made many Western backers of Ukraine uneasy. Now, it provides Putin with a quick justification of claims Russia is seeking to “de-Nazify” its neighbor, even if the Azov Regiment has formally abandoned that ideology and other Ukrainian forces are also in Mariupol.
Russian forces are preparing for a parade in the shattered port city of Mariupol on Monday, according to Ukrainian officials. Some experts now believe that Moscow intends to hold onto Mariupol permanently. In a note this week from the Institute for the Study of War, analysts noted rumors that the city could be transferred to the pro-Russian separatist Donetsk People’s Republic or even become a part of Russia directly.
But there has been little effort to convince local residents of this alternative reality. In 2014, the city was considered relatively pro-Russian and the fierce resistance was a surprise. But the devastation wrought by Russia upon the city has left little room for other viewpoints. Though Moscow declared an end to the assault at Azovstal last month, Russian opposition leaders have suggested that says more about the war’s domestic popularity than any humanitarian leanings. And either way, attacks continued.
For Ukraine, even defeat in Mariupol will be celebrated as a sign of how a smaller force can hold out against a bigger one — and how one can lose a battle but win a war. But in Russia, victory in Mariupol will serve a much weaker purpose, retroactively justifying a war that didn’t need to be fought at all.
Source: WP
