The pandemic has reached a gauzy twilight zone for many Americans. The available statistics, and conversations with friends and family, suggest that infections are everywhere. There are reports of breakouts and rebounds. Clearly a surge is underway, but not one of the same ferocity as omicron or delta. This is a good moment to appreciate the central lesson of this public health catastrophe: It will surprise, and surprise again. We must keep our eyes open for unexpected change.