The pandemic has reached a gauzy twilight zone for many Americans. The available statistics, and conversations with friends and family, suggest that infections are everywhere. There are reports of breakouts and rebounds. Clearly a surge is underway, but not one of the same ferocity as omicron or delta. This is a good moment to appreciate the central lesson of this public health catastrophe: It will surprise, and surprise again. We must keep our eyes open for unexpected change.
Congress has time for UFOs — but not for pandemic funding
That’s why it is inexplicable that Congress has yet to act on legislation funding the purchase of vaccines, tests and treatments for use in the autumn. No one knows how the pandemic will evolve, but failing to allocate funds is an abdication of responsibility. Other nations are already lining up to buy coronavirus shots. How is it that a House committee this week could hold a hearing on UFOs while legislators drag their feet on money for therapeutics and vaccines?
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggested Wednesday that about one-third of the country lives in areas with high-enough transmission to justify a return to indoor face mask requirements and other measures. New York City has already acted, and masks are returning at auto factories in Michigan. But in Arizona, the Republican-controlled state Senate approved a bill that would ban any state or local government agency from requiring face masks to be worn in its buildings. As epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina writes, the nation is bouncing somewhere between urgency and normalcy. “Transmission is not stable or predictable, the virus is changing quickly, and we have no idea what it will do next,” she warns.
Pandemic responses must change with circumstances and the science. Recall the shifting sands of the past two years. At first we were told that masks were scarce and shouldn’t be used; then that cloth masks were okay. Now, we are urged to wear only the best face masks. At first, the coronavirus was described as transmitting via respiratory droplets, so doorknobs should be cleaned and six feet of distance maintained; then, we learned the virus can hang in the air for hours, so ventilation must be prioritized. At first, it was said that herd immunity would end the pandemic; now we still don’t know how much of the population has a degree of immunity. At first, the virus appeared genetically stable, but it then became evident that it is able to mutate, posing new threats of transmissibility and immune evasion. The point is not to cast blame but to underscore that the pandemic throws curveballs, and everyone must be ready for them.
In particular, the summer and autumn might bring new variants with new challenges. Already in South Africa, variants are emerging that might be able to elude the natural immunity of patients who were infected with earlier subvariants of omicron. This relentless mutation means that no nation can assume the worst of the pandemic is over. Now that it has been briefed on flying saucers, Congress ought to allocate enough money to buy vaccines and therapies for the American people this autumn.
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