Russian forces have focused their efforts on encircling Severodonetsk, one of the last big cities under Ukrainian control in the eastern Luhansk province.
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The city, which had a prewar population of about 100,000, could become the next major battlefield now that a drawn-out struggle over the port city of Mariupol has ended. Russia is attempting to gain control of the Donbas region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russian forces are “throwing everything that they have at it,” said Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven. After failing in other major efforts, he said, “they’re down to winning these tactical battles.”
He said Moscow has struggled with combat effectiveness, taking enormous losses of officers and stitching together “Frankenstein” groups made up of troops from different units. Many are exhausted.
Russian forces “need a win,” Schmidt said. Because they lack officers capable of leading effective offenses against Ukraine, they are trying to get one in Severodonetsk by overwhelming the Ukrainians with firepower. Schmidt said the Russians are “bludgeoning their way through” in a way that could have dire consequences for civilians, as in Mariupol.
“They’re just pounding Ukrainians with artillery,” Schmidt said.
For Moscow, he said, the stakes are high. A loss would be “devastating to their morale and strategic position.” Even a win could come with costly troop casualties and equipment losses. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, could then fall back to a safe, offensive position from which they could keep the pressure on Russia, Schmidt said.
Source: WP
