If the Commanders build in Virginia, will their Maryland fans follow?

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Jonathan Kemp walked to the door after he finished lunch Wednesday afternoon at Jasper’s Restaurant in Largo, a white plastic bag of leftovers in hand. Kemp, 49, recently moved to Largo after growing up in Southeast Washington, where he developed his love for the Washington Commanders — whom he still refers to, out of both habit and defiance, by their former name.

If the Commanders leave his new environs for Virginia, which grew into a vivid possibility this past week, Kemp could not stop rooting for his beloved NFL team. He just would stop attending their games, and he suspects most of his friends would, too.

“To say, ‘I’m going to take all my guys to Loudoun County [or] Woodbridge,’ you’re going to get a different base,” Kemp said. “Maybe that’s the base that you want. But you’re not going to get your more loyal fans.”

Monday’s revelation that the Commanders had acquired the right to buy 200 acres in Woodbridge raised questions about how a potential move to that site — or any other in Virginia, including an option near Dulles International Airport — could alter the makeup and fervency of a fan base that has eroded during the 23-year stewardship of owner Daniel Snyder.

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Once considered to be the rare civic institution capable of uniting not only Washington but also most of Maryland and Virginia, the Commanders could become the sole geographic property of Virginia, making some wonder whether they would cede the remaining vestiges of their Maryland fan base to the Baltimore Ravens.

Some of the team’s most die-hard holdouts live in Prince George’s County, the jurisdiction that has housed the franchise’s home games since FedEx Field opened 24 years ago in Landover. A new stadium in Virginia wouldn’t only mean attending a home game requires negotiating the region’s often oppressive traffic. It also would mean moving potential economic gains away from a majority-Black region to a predominantly White suburb.

“I don’t think that would be lost on anyone,” said Prince George’s County Council member Mel Franklin (D-At Large).

Many hurdles and negotiations remain before any stadium deal becomes final. The team also is negotiating an option-to-purchase agreement at a planned development of shops and offices in Loudoun County. Two key Virginia senators cast doubt on stadium legislation, with Sen. Chap Petersen (D-Fairfax City) saying he had lost “confidence in the Washington Commanders as a viable NFL franchise.” Franklin said the Commanders are “essentially fostering a competition between jurisdictions” and that “I don’t think Prince George’s County is going to back down.”

Franklin said staying in Prince George’s County would be the Commanders’ best option, because the team already owns the land for a stadium and the county would work with them to transform it in a mutually beneficial way.

As the Ravens’ competitive success helped them grow more popular in Anne Arundel and Howard counties, having a stadium in Prince George’s County gave the Commanders “a strong sort of firewall” within in its Maryland fan base, Franklin said. Perhaps die-hard Prince George’s County fans would stick with them, Franklin said, but casual fans probably would drift toward the Ravens.

“This move would make Maryland really just a Ravens state,” said Franklin, a council member since 2010. “Right now, Maryland is a two-football-team state. You have a strong customer base for the Ravens and a strong customer base for the Commanders. If the Commanders move that far down in Virginia, it makes Maryland a Ravens state. And I don’t think that’s good for the Commanders’ fan base, and I don’t think it’s good for the Commanders’ business plan.”

Reese Waters, who hosts shows on The Team 980 and WUSA-9, grew up in Prince George’s County. When he first read Monday’s news, he felt surprise and a protective instinct. As he thought more about it, Waters experienced a different reaction, born of resignation.

“That actually feels like the most appropriate home for them to have,” he said. “It’s very reflective of how far removed they are from the hearts and minds of their old-school fans.”

George Wake, a now-retired teacher and coach at Fairmont Heights High, remembers when gamedays meant a sea of burgundy-and-gold paraphernalia. Now, when he goes shopping near his Bowie home, he sees more Ravens purple and gold. He can envision a Commanders move extending the shift.

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“It’s a distinct possibility that people out where I live in Bowie and up in Crofton, places like that, will probably go to the Ravens’ stadium,” Wake said. “It’s easier to get to the Ravens’ stadium, and they’re winning, and to me, the stadium is better than Washington’s stadium. If somebody said, ‘Let’s go to Woodbridge’ or, ‘Let’s go to Baltimore,’ I could see myself saying, ‘I’d rather go to Baltimore.’ ”

Outside of game day attendance, geography has never been less connected to fandom. Fans can stream, watch or receive constant updates about any team they please. Younger generations drift more toward players than teams.

Around the NFL, Ravens President Sashi Brown said in an interview, franchises are undertaking an initiative to answer a once-obvious question: Where are our fans? The Ravens, probably owing to their history of success and the dazzling style of quarterback Lamar Jackson, have found surprising answers. Internal data shows their second-highest number of digital engagements come from Mexico City.

“We certainly want to feel 70,000 strong at M&T Bank Stadium every Sunday that we’re playing there and have sellouts,” Brown said. “But we also realize a big part of what we do, as part of our branding and our marketing and activations with our fan base, happens outside the games that we play downtown.

“If Washington moves, it would change the landscape somewhat, but not really.”

In Virginia, some local officials view the deterioration of the Commanders’ fan base as an argument for the franchise to move into their state.

“I think you’ve seen the Ravens eat into the fan base over the years, and the large bulk of the fan base is in Virginia now, so I can understand why the Commanders would want to look at Virginia,” said Virginia state Sen. Jeremy S. McPike (D-Prince William).

To make up for fans who have gravitated toward the Ravens, the Commanders have been courting Virginians, most notably by moving their training camp to Richmond in 2013 — a deal that expired last year, said Virginia state Sen. Scott A. Surovell (D-Fairfax), whose district includes both potential stadium sites.

“There’s more potential fans in Hampton Roads and Richmond than there are west of Dulles,” he said.

Surovell, who supports expanding mass transit to serve Prince William, also predicted that fans from Maryland and D.C. would make the trip to see the Commanders in the commonwealth, just as Virginians routinely cross the Potomac for attractions on the other side.

“Virginia’s been helping to pay for Maryland schools via their casinos and the football team for decades,” he said.

When Donnell Long saw the Commanders had purchased land in Woodbridge, he thought to himself: “It doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to keep them. If they put that much of an investment in some land, the countdown is on.”

Long is the chef/owner of Olde Towne Inn, a local institution that sits next to the Prince George’s County Courthouse. He said business surges on fall Sundays when Washington wins and sags when it loses. He believes Prince George’s County residents “overwhelmingly” want the stadium to remain where it is. “They have a unique stranglehold on the community,” Long said.

Close to the Beltway and isolated by a desert of parking lots, FedEx Field draws little economic stimulus to nearby businesses. But Long worries for the stadium workers — concession servers, security personnel, etc. — who would lose secondary income they rely on.

“It’ll be a huge loss for the community,” Long said. “Not just from a business standpoint — just from the pure excitement. It gives people a chance to come to Prince George’s County, see Prince George’s County, dine in Prince George’s County. I think it’s a major loss. It’s not going to have dire repercussions, but it’s going to have a huge effect.”

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Franklin said an NFL stadium in a majority-Black area, especially in an era when some sports franchises have relocated to suburban neighborhoods, “sends a good message for equity and inclusion.” If the stadium landed in Virginia, Kemp said it would feel as though the Commanders were turning their backs on Prince George’s County.

“In this city, which used to call itself ‘Chocolate City’ once upon a time, that’s experienced the degree of gentrification and people displacement that we have, it’s even more particularly painful,” Waters said. “At the same time, what in Dan Snyder’s stewardship of this organization says he would be at all sensitive to that, or that he would react or respond to that in any way?”

Laura Vozzella contributed to this report.

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Source: WP