Russia-Ukraine live updates: NATO leaders to approve expanded forces in Eastern Europe
Western military analysts are predicting the battle for eastern Ukraine could grind on for months, with Russia and Ukraine each making incremental gains, but both sides lacking the forces needed for a major breakthrough.
The next phase of the war may depend on Russia’s ability to “recoup combat power” from the captured eastern city of Severodonetsk, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said in their latest battleground assessment.
Russian forces will need to cross the Donets River into the city of Lysychansk to carry on the offensive — a task made more difficult because the three main bridges across the river have been destroyed. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are consolidating their positions on higher ground in the city, the British Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
If successful, Russian forces will eventually run into a Ukrainian line of defense around the towns of Bakhmut and Siversk, which sit along the main road to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. This will reset the battle line farther west, where Ukrainian positions remain “heavily fortified,” said Michael Kofman, research program director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses.
“The offensive in this part of the battlefield is likely to drag on, perhaps well into July or August. Though both sides are liable to become exhausted due to losses of manpower and materiel,” he wrote in an analysis posted on Twitter. High casualties on both sides could lead to an “operational pause” rather than a stalemate, he said.
Kofman said that despite the focus on the eastern Donbas region, the southern city of Kherson — which has been occupied since the early days of the conflict — is economically and strategically more significant and is where Ukrainian counteroffensive abilities will probably be tested in the future.
A senior official with the U.S. Defense Department on Monday said there are growing signs of resistance in the area, including assassination attempts on Moscow-backed officials, and reports suggesting that Ukrainian troops have been successful in liberating several small towns northwest and west of the city.
