Gavin Newsom likely isn’t the answer Democrats are looking for

California’s cornucopia of wealthy Democratic donors is another big plus. The campaign funding tracking website Open Secrets reports that Californians gave nearly $1.7 billion to political campaigns in the 2020 cycle. That was almost $700 million more than second-place New York, and about 70 percent of the Golden State’s contributions went to Democrats. Newsom raised almost $60 million in his 2018 gubernatorial campaign and is sitting on more than $23 million in cash going into the general election. He would easily be able to raise enough to launch a solid effort just from home-state friends alone.

He has also positioned himself well to appeal to the broad range of Democratic voters. Newsom is in line with party views on gun control and climate change and is staunchly pro-abortion rights. He has also long been a supporter of LGBTQ issues and will surely remind national audiences that he issued marriage licenses in violation of California law for same-sex couples as mayor of San Francisco in 2004, giving him his first national exposure. He blends this with an image of being pro-business, letting him curry favor with the party’s establishment set. This combination positions him as ideologically similar to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, but with much more significant governing experience.

Newsom would nonetheless have to overcome significant challenges if he were to run nationally. The first is the same thing that tripped up Buttigieg: support among the party’s influential Black voters. Black Democrats are notably more moderate than the party’s affluent, White wing, and their support is crucial to anyone seeking the party’s nod, as evidenced by President Biden’s stunning comeback in 2020. Their dominance in Democratic primaries in the South gives their candidate enough delegates to be a serious national contender. They have backed the winner in every contest since 1988, when they backed Jesse Jackson’s historic, but hopeless, presidential campaign.

Progressive White candidates have historically failed to attract Black voters. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) lost his 2016 challenge to Hillary Clinton largely because she clobbered him with the demographic. He didn’t do much better in 2020, losing to Biden by 61 to 17 percent among Black voters in the pivotal South Carolina primary. Newsom and his inner circle have views that largely mirror those of affluent, White, Bay Area Democrats. It’s hard to think of a group further removed from the lives and concerns of Black voters.

Newsom would also likely have to contend with Vice President Harris, a Black and Asian American woman who shares Newsom’s San Francisco and California political base. Harris has not impressed in either her 2020 presidential bid or as vice president, but any sitting V.P. has national stature that is difficult to undermine. She could use her race, gender and office to campaign as a more moderate progressive, forcing Newsom to the party’s left for support. That wing is growing fast, but it remains a minority among the national Democratic electorate.

Newsom’s personal wealth and obvious taste for the fine life could also play badly outside of California. His trip to the internationally famous French Laundry restaurant, in violation of his own covid-19 rules, suggests a haughty sense of entitlement. He and his second wife, filmmaker Jennifer Siebel Newsom, are worth more than $20 million. In fact, the family bought a $3.7 million house in suburban Sacramento rather than live in the state-financed governor’s mansion. One wonders how his custom-tailored suits and Hollywood-perfect hair will play when he’s sitting in an Iowa family’s living room or shaking hands in New Hampshire’s diners.

His challenges become even greater if he becomes the nominee. Newsom is the face of a state whose social progressivism is a minority view nationwide. He has also never had to deal with serious Republican opposition. Does he take GOP viewpoints seriously enough to engage them effectively, or does he share the condescending and antagonistic views common on the left? So far, it seems it’s the latter, and that could be decisive if the GOP nominates someone other than Donald Trump.

Any sitting governor of California must be taken seriously as presidential timber, and Newsom’s talents and ambition suggest he’s a serious contender. But California is a very distinct state. It’s far from clear he understands that well enough to make the leap to Washington.