LOS ANGELES — What we don’t know about baseball’s central storyline is where Juan Soto will play or how much he will be paid over how many years. Those are enormously important elements for the Washington Nationals, for Soto himself, for the sport as a whole. There is urgency in dealing with all of it. But there’s also time.
Juan Soto’s peers aren’t all-stars. They’re the all-time greats.
So with the best of baseball gathered here for Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, and with no single figure generating more conversation and consternation than the 23-year-old Nationals right fielder, it’s worth remembering why that’s the case. Put aside 15 years for $440 million, and pause the idea of trading a homegrown juggernaut before he enters his prime.
Soto is in this position because he is nothing short of a savant, and there’s so much evidence to support it. Start with this: Two of his important numbers at the all-star break — a .250 batting average and a .497 slugging percentage — would rank as the worst of his career. They are numbers of which others would be proud.
“Everyone’s like, ‘He’s having a slow start,’ or whatever,” said Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner, Soto’s teammate until last summer. “And then you look at the numbers, and they’re still pretty incredible.”
That “slow start” has Soto tied for ninth in all of baseball in on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.902) — and he’s trending in the right direction. His stats say he’s among the best hitters in the game, and he hasn’t even started hitting yet.
“I feel amaaaaaazing!” Soto said with typical flair. “I feel really good at the dish. I’m seeing the ball really well, and whenever I start hitting the ball to the other way is a good sign. For me, I just feel great.”
Forget the fact that, in his three at-bats during Tuesday’s 3-2 win for the American League, Soto grounded out each time. This is, in effect, a warning to the rest of the majors for the second half. It will be with the Nationals, the only franchise he has known. Or it will be with a team in a pennant race that was willing to unload an ungodly haul in return for two years and two months of Soto’s services before he can hit free agency.
I felt this way about Bryce Harper when he was inching toward free agency in Washington, and I’ll reiterate it about Soto now: Don’t waste energy worrying about whether he’ll leave. Appreciate what you have. Soto’s situation is different from Harper’s because the Nationals expected to compete for championships even as Harper’s time was drawing to an end and they are in some version of a reboot or rebuild now. But the principles remain: Enjoy the talent, even if it could be fleeting.
This discussion, which all but swallowed the All-Star Game whole, isn’t based in the game’s finances — about what Soto would make in his final two seasons of arbitration and what he would be worth in free agency beyond that. It’s based in his combination of raw ability, the discipline to refine it and the aptitude to process information both before the game and in real time.
“For such a young kid to have that maturity, the process that he has, is great,” said Kyle Schwarber, a teammate for half of the 2021 season, a rival with the Philadelphia Phillies now. “It’s A-plus. You don’t really see that in a really young individual. They’re coming up through the game, and they’re trying to tiptoe their way. It seemed like he came right into the big leagues and was ready to go.”
So lump Soto in with whatever list you want. There is no player to compare him to — whatever his standing — that is unreasonable.
“He’s Trout without the defense,” one head of an opposing baseball operations department said Tuesday, “but a better hitter.”
A better hitter than Mike Trout, the best player of this generation. Think that’s hyperbole? Fine. But here are the players baseball-reference.com rates most similar to Soto through age 22, in order: Trout, Frank Robinson, Harper, Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle, Tony Conigliaro, Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Giancarlo Stanton and Ken Griffey Jr.
Digest that. Exhale. Okay, now dig in.
That group includes five Hall of Famers, two who will be shoe-ins (Trout and Cabrera), two who have a realistic chance (Harper and Stanton) and one whose career was shortened by injury (Conigliaro). It includes 16 MVP awards. It’s staggering.
So Soto’s peers weren’t in the clubhouses this week at Dodger Stadium. Soto’s peers are players who are considered peerless. How does that happen?
“First, he has an amazing game plan,” said Atlanta Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who has helped pitchers formulate game plans to combat Soto for years. “Second, he’s ready to hit all the time, so if you miss your spot by one baseball — so, what’s that, two inches? — he hits it hard. Third, he doesn’t chase, either.”
Plate discipline is the most commonly cited trait that opposing pitchers and hitters believe separates Soto from the rest. It is, as Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said, “off the charts.” Since Soto broke into the big leagues in 2018, only two players who have been in the majors that long have swung at a lower percentage of pitches outside the strike zone than Soto’s 20.4 — Houston’s Alex Bregman and Detroit’s Robbie Grossman. It is the foundation of Soto’s success.
“The moment doesn’t get too big for him,” Happ said. “He understands that he has to be patient in the position he’s in, with how good he is. And he doesn’t … swing … at … balls. It doesn’t matter who’s on the bump. It doesn’t matter if it’s a lefty or a righty. He doesn’t chase, and I think that part of it is so impressive.”
“Those borderline pitches,” New York Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil said, “he does a great job of fouling them off or taking them for balls.”
And when he does take a pitch for a ball, he often does it with style. Soto’s shuffle-and-stare-at-the-pitcher routine might have been seen as unnecessary showmanship in a different era. Now, it’s welcome flair. It’s such a signature that in his locker in the home clubhouse Tuesday was a new cap from MLB partner New Era — black with an unmistakable red silhouette of Soto crouched in his shuffle.
“He’s got his own style, his own brand of it and how he does it,” Turner said, smiling. “It’s unique. You can’t re-create that if you’re somebody else. He’s interesting, I guess, is another way to put it. But he’s really, really good.”
That’s why we’re having this discussion and why it will continue to dominate the sport as the second half begins. Juan Soto can turn down $440 million from the only team he has ever known — and have most in baseball consider it a reasonable decision because the players he most statistically resembles are Hall of Famers. There’s no current player like him. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if he played for your team forever?
Source: WP
