NFL best bets for Week 1: It’s too early to trust Carson Wentz
PICK: Las Vegas Raiders +3½
This is a simple play around a key number. The most likely margin of victory in the NFL is three points, so taking the Raiders and 3½ gives us a good chance at a win. Plus, the line has had months to settle, meaning we shouldn’t see much movement between now and kickoff. If it does creep to +4, it’s of little consequence. Just four games over the past five seasons, counting the regular season and playoffs, have ended with a four-point margin after closing with a point spread of 3 or 3½. If, on the other hand, the line shrinks to +3, we have secured some value.
It also looks like the Chargers will be without cornerback J.C. Jackson on Sunday. Jackson finished last season with the fifth-highest grade at the position from Pro Football Focus, hauling in eight interceptions and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 47.8 passer rating when they tested him in coverage. For context, a pass thrown into the stands would give a passer a rating of 39.6. That could open the door for a big game from star wide receiver Davante Adams, who will make his Las Vegas debut this weekend.
