As early voting begins around the country, every political data point would appear to marginally favor the Democrats. Polls suggest they lead ever so slightly in key Senate races and in national House polls. Their candidates are raking in cash, while Republicans struggle financially. And in special elections following the end of Roe v. Wade, Democratic turnout soared.
This little-known election predictor should worry Democrats
But one key indicator — primary turnout — looks better for the GOP.
According to pollster John Couvillon, 52 percent of 2022 primary voters cast ballots in GOP races, while 48 percent voted in Democratic races. That’s a good sign for Republicans. High primary turnout signals enthusiasm for the general election — and the party with the stronger primary turnout typically does better in the midterms.
We don’t yet know whether this pattern will repeat in November. But a thorough examination of the data shows that Republicans do have a primary turnout advantage — even considering Dobbs and the other complexities of this election cycle.
Republicans turned out strongly in primaries this year
Measured by total votes, the GOP is the strongest it has been in five midterm elections.
In 2010 and 2014 — the last two midterm cycles in which Republicans enjoyed a turnout advantage — voter interest was low and Republicans won by out-mobilizing Democrats. This year appears to be different: Voter interest is high among all voters and Republicans have a primary turnout edge.
The GOP surge is broad-based: In 33 of the states that Couvillon tracked, Republicans added votes to their 2018 totals. Democrats increased their vote total in only 16 states.
And Republicans saw their largest net gains in populous, closely fought purple states. Seven of the 10 states where they gained the most votes feature a competitive Senate or gubernatorial race this year.
Put simply, the basic GOP turnout numbers look strong. But complications lurk beneath the surface.
Dobbs diminishes — but doesn’t erase — the GOP edge
One complication: Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and energized Democrats across the nation, isn’t fully priced into the GOP’s four-to-five-point turnout advantage. The court handed Dobbs down in late June, more than halfway through the primary season — meaning that overall turnout numbers don’t fully capture Democrats’ newfound enthusiasm.
Accounting for Dobbs diminishes — but doesn’t wipe out — the GOP advantage.
Democrats improved on their overall primary turnout in post-Dobbs primaries, but the GOP still retained a two-point edge. A roughly one-to-three-point edge in the House popular vote would likely lead to a Republican takeover of the lower chamber, as well as a few upsets in key Senate races.
Republican infighting boosted GOP turnout
Another complicating factor: Donald Trump’s continued hostility to the establishment wing of his own party might be muddying the data.
Trump in 2021 and 2022 endorsed outsiders against more traditionally credentialed Republicans, effectively waging a series of proxy wars against his party’s old guard. This infighting could have had the effect of inflating GOP primary turnout, as Republicans tried to work out their differences. But it could also signal disunity in November rather than enthusiasm.
There’s something to this idea.
In states that featured a high-profile clash between a Trump endorsee and an establishment favorite, turnout shot up. In states without a high-profile Trump endorsee, Democrats had a modest turnout advantage.
That doesn’t mean that the true, overall turnout advantage favors Democrats. Trump made vocal endorsements in the most important contests — in such states as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia and Arizona. If Trump had stayed silent in those races, Republicans still likely would have held a competitive primary and amassed a real, if smaller, turnout advantage.
But Trump’s war on the GOP establishment — like turnout in pre-Dobbs primaries — might obscure the data, making the Republican advantage look a bit larger than it is.
Primary turnout data is hard to interpret. Complete data (for comparison’s sake) exists only for the previous four midterm elections. And none of those midterms has featured this level of GOP infighting or a Supreme Court case as explosive as Dobbs. Any forecaster would tell you to be cautious with this data.
But even a cautious interpretation of this data suggests a GOP advantage. Polls show Democrats ahead in the race for the House and Senate, and Republicans recently lost a congressional special election in deep-red Alaska. But, by this metric, the GOP has reason for optimism.
About this data
Special thanks to John Couvillon of JMC Analytics, who compiled turnout statistics and shared them with me. Couvillon is a Louisiana-based pollster who works with Republican politicians.
In each state, we used the most accurate available turnout data. In some cases, the most accurate statistic was the total number of voters in each party primary. When that data was unavailable, we used top-of-the-ticket turnout (typically from Senate, gubernatorial or House races). Some states used a convention system, declined to hold a primary or produced numbers that weren’t comparable to a normal primary vote count. We omitted those contests.
Two different turnout data sets were used in this analysis. The first includes only 35 states where both parties held comparable primaries in each midterm from 2006 to 2022. The second includes states where both parties held comparable primaries in 2022 and 2018 (a total of 43 states). The notes in each graphic indicate which data set was used.
Source: WP
