Rather than fret about rankings at this time of year, it’s best to remember the basic math that has come up time and again in the playoff era.
College football Week 11 preview: Who still has a shot at the playoff?
So how does it translate to the present situation? There are no more than 13 plausible playoff candidates remaining, and the number is probably smaller in reality.
Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and TCU will be fine if they win out. Clemson, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Southern California, Tennessee and UCLA all have the potential to get to 12-1 (though Mississippi needs some help to win the SEC West even if it finishes 11-1).
And is there a two-loss spoiler? It might be LSU, which has defeated Alabama and Mississippi and could face Georgia in the SEC title game. Win that, and the Tigers might have a compelling case even with losses to Florida State and Tennessee (especially if they don’t have to leapfrog an 11-1 Tennessee team to get in).
A longer shot? Alabama, which would need to beat Mississippi and Auburn and have LSU lose to both Arkansas and Texas A&M just to get to an SEC title game. That’s asking a lot, though the Crimson Tide will probably land a New Year’s Six nod if it gets into the barn at 10-2.
Pandemic’s impact on coaching
There was no shortage of predictions made early in the pandemic that proved to be off the mark. It’s tough to make a forecast while lacking information in the middle of a once-in-a-century public health crisis.
One that resonates with a bless-your-heart vibe more than two years later is how the disruption would cause schools to become more cautious about paying massive buyouts to struggling coaches. Such thinking went out the window around the time South Carolina dismissed Will Muschamp in the middle of the 2020 season.
Perhaps a more telling pandemic consequence is just how much of an influence the disruption had on coaches just hired in the months before the world shut down. Of the 24 Football Bowl Subdivision coaches who were in their first season in 2020, six have been jettisoned before the completion of their third season.
South Florida’s Jeff Scott was the latest casualty of that class after going 4-26 with the Bulls and getting pink-slipped this week. Karl Dorrell was dismissed last month at Colorado, and Steve Addazio (Colorado State), Todd Graham (Hawaii), Jimmy Lake (Washington) and Nick Rolovich (Washington State) didn’t make it past a second season.
There are some mitigating circumstances. Rolovich was fired for failing to comply with a vaccine mandate. Addazio, a Connecticut native who had never coached west of the Mississippi, seemed like an odd fit in the Mountain West from the start. And, of course, schools do tend to pull the plug faster than in the past.
Still, losing pretty much all of the spring of a first season, then dealing with pandemic protocols to make it through the summer and fall had to have an impact. Not being able to host recruits on campus probably had a significant impact, too. It’s tough to fulfill the cliched promise to “change the culture” when the opportunity to do so is narrow.
That might have helped derail Scott, a former Clemson co-offensive coordinator who in two-plus years managed to beat three Football Championship Subdivision opponents and a Temple team that was well on its way to mailing in the second half of its season in 2021.
(An aside: Since a 7-0 start in 2018, South Florida is 8-40 overall and 3-30 in the American. There are definite challenges at the Tampa school, including playing off-campus, and its blink-and-you-missed-it random rise to No. 2 in the country for in 2007 will be hard to replicate and thus is a talking point that grows wearisome. But the Bulls’ floor ought to be higher than this).
It’s not as if Dorrell, who was hired less than a month before the world went haywire, had much of a chance, either, at Colorado. He replaced Mel Tucker, who jumped to Michigan State, which struggled in his first season. Tucker then used an 11-2 run last year to get a massive contract extension before the Spartans sputtered this fall.
There are counterexamples, of course. Lane Kiffin has done just fine at Mississippi. The same can be said for Kalen DeBoer, who spent two years at Fresno State before replacing Lake at Washington. Jeff Traylor at Texas-San Antonio also comes to mind.
It remains inescapable that the pandemic was a variable no one’s rebuilding plan accounted for in the early weeks of 2020. And rather than creating an extra cushion of job security, it might have had the reverse effect for some who found themselves playing catch-up almost from the day they were hired.
Five with the most at stake
1. TCU. Forget whatever ranking the Horned Frogs were granted during the weekly playoff infomercial (they were No. 4) and focus on a more important number: Zero. That’s how many losses Sonny Dykes’s team has, and if they can navigate the next four weeks, they’ll be a playoff team. The closing stretch starts with Saturday’s trip to No. 18 Texas (6-3, 4-2 Big 12), which has won four of five.
2. Oregon. The No. 6 Ducks (8-1, 6-0 Pac-12) haven’t had a misstep since their opening loss to Georgia, and have only been remotely threatened once since then (Sept. 24 at Washington State). A challenging closing stretch begins Saturday against No. 25 Washington (7-2, 4-2), and another lopsided victory will only help Oregon cement its status as the most imposing one-loss team outside of Knoxville, Tenn.
3. Mississippi. The No. 11 Rebels (8-1, 4-1 SEC) come off an open date and can ill-afford a loss if they want to stay in the playoff or SEC title hunt. A slight problem, though: A cranky No. 9 Alabama team that saw its own playoff hopes almost entirely dashed with a loss at LSU last week is headed for Oxford.
4. Tulane. The No. 17 Green Wave (8-1, 5-0) is probably the best Group of Five story this season, recovering from a 2-10 record last season to sit atop the American with three weeks to go. Tulane welcomes Central Florida to New Orleans for the program’s most anticipated home game since … maybe the 1998 regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, when the Green Wave cemented an undefeated regular season? Thing is, No. 22 UCF (7-2, 4-1) is pretty good, too, and this is arguably one of the two or three best games of the weekend.
5. North Carolina. The No. 15 Tar Heels (8-1, 5-0 ACC) probably aren’t going to reach the playoff even if they win by 50 in each of their remaining games. However, as a one-loss power conference team, there’s at least a chance that could happen if chaos reigns elsewhere. Chaos, of course, is endemic to the ACC’s Coastal Division — except in its swan song. North Carolina can clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a victory at Wake Forest (6-3, 2-3).
Heisman Watch
A weekly look at the race for college football’s favorite stiff-arming statue.
1. QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (2,453 yards, 29 TDs, 4 INTs passing; 75 yards rushing). Everyone is allowed a dud, especially if it comes in a victory. Stroud rushed for more yards (79) than he threw for (76) in a victory at Northwestern on a windy day. But let’s face it: His Heisman-deciding moment, one way or the other, awaits at the end of the month when Michigan comes to Columbus. (Last week: 1)
2. QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (2,533 yards, 21 TDs, 2 INTs passing; 355 yards, 4 TDs rushing). There’s no shame in having an unremarkable day against Georgia (23 of 33 for 195 yards and an interception). But it was a bit of a missed opportunity. (LW: 2)
3. QB Caleb Williams, Southern California (2,742 yards, 28 TDs, 1 INT; 287 yards, 4 TDs rushing). The sophomore shredded California nearly as much as he did Arizona the week before. A Friday night meeting with Colorado is a mixed blessing; Williams can probably put up some good numbers, but he probably won’t be needed the entire night. (LW: 5)
4. QB Bo Nix, Oregon (2,495 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs passing; 457 yards, 13 TDs rushing). The Auburn transfer collected his customary five touchdowns last week, throwing for two, rushing for two more and tacking on a receiving score in a blowout of Colorado. (LW: 6)
5. QB Max Duggan, TCU (2,407 yards, 24 TDs, 2 INTs passing; 282 yards, 4 TDs rushing). Threw for 195 yards and two scores while rushing for 6 yards on 12 carries against Texas Tech. Not a bad day, but not a distinguishing one, either. (LW: 3)
6. QB Drake Maye, North Carolina (2,964 yards, 31 TDs, 3 INTs passing; 513 yards, 4 TDs rushing). At some point, it’s hard to ignore the numbers, and the redshirt freshman’s stats are off the charts for the Tar Heels. (LW: Not ranked)
Source: WP
