U.S. admiral: Risk of war with China is growing

The risk of a conflict with China is increasing as a result of aggressive activities by Beijing, the admiral in charge of U.S. forces in the Pacific told Congress Tuesday.

Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, told a House Armed Services Committee hearing that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korean missile tests and the threat of violent extremism have all increased the risk of war. But China, he said, remains the only serious U.S. competitor capable of combining its military power with advanced technology in seeking to displace the United States as the world’s leading superpower.

“War is not inevitable and it’s not imminent,” the four-star admiral told lawmakers. “However, this decade presents a period of increased risk,” adding that the risks “are real.”

Adm. Philip Davidson, the previous head of the Indo-Pacific command, told Congress in 2021 that China’s Communist regime was on track to seek a military takeover of Taiwan before 2027. Beijing considers the island democracy a part of its sovereign territory.

Adm. Aquilino said Tuesday that estimates of a possible Chinese action against Taiwan were based on an order by President Xi Jinping directing the Chinese military to be prepared “to execute a task” by 2027, increasing the likelihood of conflict.

“The trends are all in the wrong direction. There’s no doubt about that,” he said.

U.S. military forces in the region are fully prepared for any scenario, he insisted.

“For me, it doesn’t matter what the timeline is,” the four-star commander said. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “has given to me this mission today. So, I’m responsible to prevent this conflict today, and if deterrence were to fail to be able to fight and win.”

When China might launch an attack is “guessing,” he said, but he urged the Pentagon and defense industry to “go faster” in using all elements of national power — military, diplomatic, economic and other — to prevent the conflict, Adm. Aquilino said.

Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, a Republican member of the committee, said lawmakers have been debating whether or not a conflict over Taiwan is inevitable.

Mr. Waltz noted that Mr. Xi told a recent meeting of the Chinese Communist Party that a takeover of Taiwan, including the potential use of military force, is inevitable.

“[Mr. Xi] said he’s not going to pass it on to the next generation and that basically he is going to do it on his watch,” said Mr. Waltz, a National Guard Army colonel, veteran special forces soldier and former Pentagon policy advisor.

Mr. Waltz said many in the Pentagon appear to be engaged in “wishful thinking” that a war with China is not likely, in ways similar to those expressing doubts Russia would invade in the run-up to the Ukraine war.

The Biden administration warned for months that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine but was unable to deter Moscow.

Mr. Waltz also said that U.S. allies in Asia leaders in those countries voiced “ambiguity” about supporting the United States in a defense of Taiwan on a recent tour of the region that he made.

Adm. Aquilino declined to comment on whether nations like Japan and Philippines would provide overflight and basing rights in a future China conflict, but said both countries would be vital to winning a military action over Taiwan.