Punch and counterpunch: In Ukraine, drone wars morph into ‘Whac-a-Mole’

TAMPA, Florida — In military circles, it’s described as a real-life version of the arcade game “Whac-a-Mole,” played for the highest of stakes.

Counter-drone technology emerged at the forefront at the Special Operations Forces Week conference here, with defense industry leaders pointing to the war in Ukraine as clear proof of why their drone-killing products are vital for the battles of today and tomorrow. But it’s far from a static proposition as insiders describe a sector in a constant state of flux, with enemies such as Russia and China developing capabilities to beat defensive programs — counter-counter drone systems — and the U.S. and its allies then adjusting their own approach to overcome those responses.

The back-and-forth of drones and counter-drone tools could come to define warfare in the 21st century. Drone technology has been arguably the biggest variable so far in the Russia-Ukraine war, a conflict that otherwise has been marked by traditional, 20th century-era tactics, artillery bombardments and defensive trenches. 

U.S. strategists say Russia’s introduction of relatively cheap, plentiful Iranian-supplied drones sparked one crisis for Ukrainian defenders before they were able to adjust their defensive targeting strategies. And the Kremlin itself was literally drawn into the drone war when, in a still-murky incident, two apparently Ukrainian-launched drones earlier this month exploded on the doorstep of the Russian seat of power in the heart of Moscow, in what Kremlin officials said was a failed assassination attempt of President Vladimir Putin.

Drones in mass numbers can defeat even the most sophisticated defensive systems, even if just one in 50 makes it through to a target. Video from the war shows Ukrainian drones able to “loiter” above enemy-held territory, ready to drop their payload when a suitable target comes into range.

“This war is a war of drones, they are the super weapon here,” Anton Gerashchenko, a senior advisor in the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told Newsweek earlier this year.

Ukrainian forces have made great use of both American-made and Turkish drones throughout the 15-month fight, but manufacturers say they have had to make on-the-fly tweaks to their products in response to moves made by the Russian side.

“It is absolutely Whac-a-Mole and we learned a lot going into Ukraine about the Russian jamming activities, jamming GPS all over the place, jamming [communications], links, and so on, other techniques they use. And we’ve had the great fortune of that being fed back to us and then quickly adapting the system,” said Brett Hush, senior vice president and general manager for tactical missile systems at AeroVironment, a California-based firm whose Switchblade unmanned craft has played a central role in Ukrainians’ effort to beat back the Russian invasion.

“We’re constantly getting feedback. They’re doing this, so now we’re going to do this,” Mr. Hush told The Washington Times on the sprawling convention floor here. “I don’t see that ending. That’s going to be continual. What’s the adversary doing? And what do I have to do with my system?”

Both the U.S. and its foes are pursuing many of the same means for dealing with the new threat posed by unmanned aerial systems, whether it be a single drone or swarms of craft explicitly designed to overwhelm an enemy’s defenses. Jamming communications signals is one method of defeating today’s drones, with the goal of severing the link between the craft and its human operators or its link to GPS targeting coordinates. After a series of early missteps, Russia reportedly moved some electronic-warfare systems to the front lines in Ukraine, aiming to disorient and disable Ukrainian drones before they could reach their targets.

The Pentagon has put a premium on all of those technologies, with well-funded research programs aimed specifically at defeating all sizes and types of drones. That research also includes work on overcoming an enemy’s counter-drone efforts, highlighting the constant push-and-pull that will continue as both sides of the fight gain more advanced capabilities.

Crowded skies

There are potential pitfalls to cutting off communication between an armed drone and its human operators, industry insiders say. As autonomous systems and artificial intelligence grow more prevalent on the battlefield, drones can be pre-programmed to fly to specific targets, meaning that even if they’re cut off from external communication, the craft theoretically could still reach its destination and inflict damage.

Before developing a plan to beat enemy drones, specialists say it’s vital to first determine what represents a threat and what doesn’t. The proliferation of small, cheap, commercially available drones is leading to increasingly crowded skies, meaning military personnel or domestic law enforcement could waste time locating and identifying harmless craft piloted by a teenager with an iPhone.

James Carroll, vice president of federal programs with the California company Vigilant Drone Defense, said his firm aims to make those distinctions quickly. Mr. Carroll said his drone-defeating products can jam virtually all commercially available craft, meaning that anything that’s left over should be considered a threat.

“I’m jamming all of the commercial, off-the-shelf frequencies. … He’s not getting through my stuff,” Mr. Carroll said in an interview here. “However, if it penetrates me, now we know we’ve got some military-grade technology.”

“The only thing that’s going to get through is bad guys. So now we can start escalating,” he said “That’s been one of the problems with drones. How do we identify a threat? There’s thousands of drones out here flying. What are the bad ones?”

One of the best ways to gain knowledge about a threat is to analyze the physical drone itself. But in a combat zone, that’s often not possible, as enemy drones can be disabled while far from the front lines or destroyed before reaching their destination.

In some ways, a similar problem manifested itself over U.S. skies earlier this year. After a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew over the U.S. in late January and early February, the Pentagon took an aggressive stance toward any unknown objects flying over the homeland. That resulted in numerous craft being shot down over the U.S. and Canada over a frantic Super Bowl weekend. Each of those unknown craft were essentially blown to bits.

In the event that drones of unknown origin are crossing U.S. skies, capturing and analyzing the drone could prove vital. Max Klein, chief technology officer with the Alabama-based company SCI, said his firm’s approach can do just that.

With the tagline “We Stop Drones,” SCI’s autonomous AeroGuard system can trail behind an unknown object and capture it with a physical net before towing it through skies and ultimately to ground.

“We can recover the target and take it to a safe location,” Mr. Klein said in an interview. “The kinetic capture allows us to have total physical control over that target.”

“Shooting things out of the sky is a military favorite,” he said. “It works great, highly effective. But also, what comes up has to come down, and the collateral damage tends to be much larger.”

As drone technology advances, industry leaders say one of the only guarantees is the need for constant reassessment and refinement.

“We’ll do something and our threat will do something else to counter, and we’ll counter, and unfortunately that’s the nature of the beast,” Mr. Carroll said. “There’s no perfect solution. It’s going to take multiple solutions to solve our problem.”