Combat fatigue? Cracks in Western unity as Ukraine struggles to show progress

Ukraine is still staring down one of the world’s largest militaries deeply entrenched deep within its territory. But Kyiv may face another enemy that’s perhaps equally dangerous in the long run: the weakening of Western resolve.

Top Russian officials on Monday predicted that the U.S. and NATO are in the early throes of Ukraine “fatigue” as domestic politics on both sides of the Atlantic may be opening the door to a slow erosion of the steady economic and military aid that so far has kept Kyiv alive in the fight. Such accusations from the Kremlin are hardly new. Russian President Vladimir Putin banked his Ukraine gambit on the presumption that Western allies would eventually crack over time and gradually abandon Ukraine.

That prediction hasn’t panned out so far in the 18-month conflict. European Union foreign ministers on Monday traveled to Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with both sides offering reassurances that the anti-Russian alliance has not frayed.

The Biden White House was also anxious to shoot down the idea that allied unity was faltering or that Russia could simply outwait the coalition assembled against it.

“There is [a] strong, very strong international coalition behind Ukraine,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told a briefing Monday. “And if [Russian President Vladimir] Putin thinks he can outlast us, he’s wrong. He’s wrong.”

But there are early signals that the strong unity shown by the U.S. and its leading allies in backing Ukraine won’t last indefinitely.

In the U.S., leading candidates for the GOP presidential nomination — including former President Donald Trump — have taken a skeptical stance on open-ended American aid for Ukraine moving forward. Congressional Republicans over the weekend also pulled Ukraine aid from a last-minute spending bill that averted a government shutdown.

The turmoil is increasingly evident in Europe as well. In Slovakia’s elections over the weekend, former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Smer party emerged as the top vote-getter. Mr. Fico has said he wants to end the country’s military aid to Ukraine and favors immediate peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. That stance echoes the positions taken by some Republican presidential candidates in the U.S., who say it’s time for Washington to use its leverage to push for peace rather than open-ended war with a ballooning price tag.

Some analysts caution not to read too much into any of those developments and say they believe Western support for Ukraine will continue. But they concede that there’s growing reason for concern, especially given the virtually non-existent appetite in the U.S. to involve itself in another years-long war thousands of miles from home.

“I think the fear is well-founded,” said Jim Townsend, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy during the Obama administration. “Whether it’s Afghanistan fatigue, Iraq fatigue, Balkans fatigue. Fatigue is a naturally occurring condition in any kind of warfare, particularly involving the U.S. or other democracies. We get fatigued pretty fast. We want quick results.” 

Mr. Townsend said the early cracks of support come from unrealistic expectations in some quarters that Ukraine’s highly touted counteroffensive launched this spring would produce immediate results and decisive victories against the Russian invaders. In reality, that counteroffensive has made little progress as the front lines of the conflict have seen little change throughout 2023.

“In a war like this, where the Ukrainians are having to go up against the entrenched Russian lines, this is how it’s going to look,” Mr. Townsend said in an interview. “Anyone expecting a big Hollywood-style charge by Ukraine, they’re smoking dope. They don’t have any idea how war works. This is World War I.”

Unified front

Despite the electoral outcome in Slovakia, European officials tried to project a unified front on Monday. The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell said, told reporters in Kyiv that the bloc remains solidly behind Ukraine.

“The EU remains united in its support to Ukraine … I don’t see any member state folding on their engagement,” Mr. Borrell said. 

Mr. Zelenskyy struck a similar tone. He posted on social media videos and photos of him greeting EU ministers in Kyiv.

“I appreciate the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv that proved unity in support for Ukraine,” he said in a post on X. “Continued EU military aid for Ukraine is important, both immediate and long-term, as well as financial assistance and sanctions pressure on Russia.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba also dismissed suggestions that the delay in new funding from Washington was a matter of concern.

“We don’t feel that the U.S. support has been shattered … because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine, it’s about the stability and predictability of the world,” Mr. Kuleba said. “And therefore I believe that we’ll be able to find the necessary solutions.”

Dog days of war

The U.S. has given about $44 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine since the conflict began, in addition to other economic and humanitarian assistance. The Biden administration is pushing for more, and additional money for Ukraine had been a central part of the spending legislation fight that divided Republicans on Capitol Hill.

The EU and its member states have given Ukraine $88 billion in total aid since the start of the war in February 2022, the bloc said in a fact sheet released late last month, with at least $27 billion of that going directly to the Ukrainian military.

That money has clearly paid dividends: Western aid, equipment and military training helped the Ukrainian side fend off Russia’s push toward Kyiv in the early days of the war, and has helped the Ukrainians notch several major successes since then. Western vehicles, artillery, counter-drone weapons and other tools have been vital so far in helping achieve modest gains in Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

But Moscow is playing the long game and is betting the U.S. and Europe will grow tired of war.

Russia plans to dramatically increase its military budget next year and officials in Moscow are anticipating that fighting in Ukraine will continue at least until 2025, according to documents that were apparently leaked from the Kremlin’s Finance Ministry. Russia’s defense spending is set to surge to about 30% of total public expenditures in 2024, British defense officials said Sunday, sketching out Russia’s vision for a war that drags on for years.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested that Western resolve is already starting to flag.

“Fatigue over this conflict — fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime — will grow in various countries, including the U.S.,” he said Monday.

There are other troubling signs in Europe beyond the election results in Slovakia. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has argued against providing Ukraine with arms. Just last week, he cast doubt on the notion that Ukraine could join the EU in the near future.

In Poland, President Andrzej Duda late last month had to walk back comments from his prime minister that Warsaw was cutting off weapons trade with Ukraine, in reaction to a flood of Ukrainian grain imports that were undercutting politically influential agricultural interests in Poland. As a neighboring country and a key thoroughfare for military aid into Ukraine, Poland is a crucial cog in the Western alliance.

With Russia preparing for years of war and having shown a willingness throughout history to send waves of bodies into a fight, Western solidarity will be more important than ever.

“You outlast them,” said Mr. Townsend, referring to Russia. “Putin is certainly expecting the West to be as feckless as the West can be when they’re in the fight and they lose stomach for that fight, whether it’s Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq.”

• David R. Sands and Mike Glenn contributed to this report.