Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, left, and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) after a debate on Oct. 1 in Raleigh, N.C. (Gerry Broome/Pool/AP)
Dan Balz
Chief correspondent covering national politics, the presidency and Congress
October 20 at 6:00 AM
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham are locked in a toss-up Senate race in North Carolina, where roughly a quarter of voters say the challenger’s extramarital affair is important in their vote but with far more saying control of the Senate and the incumbent’s support for President Trump matter, a Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.
The Post-ABC poll shows that, among likely voters, Cunningham is at 49 percent, and Tillis is at 47 percent, a gap well within the survey’s 4.5-percentage-point margin of sampling error. More than 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans support their party’s candidate, while independents split almost down the middle: 48 percent for Cunningham and 45 percent for Tillis.
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Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Senate race nearly even in North Carolina
Q: Thinking now about the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, if the election were today would you vote for/lean toward Cal Cunningham, the Democrat, or Thom Tillis, the Republican?
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote,” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 12-17, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 646 North Carolina likely voters with an error margin of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Senate race nearly even in North Carolina
Q: Thinking now about the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, if the election were today would you vote for/lean toward Cal Cunningham, the Democrat, or Thom Tillis, the Republican?
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote,” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 12-17, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 646 North Carolina likely voters with an error margin of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Senate race nearly even in North Carolina
Q: Thinking now about the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, if the election were today would you vote for/lean toward Cal Cunningham, the Democrat, or Thom Tillis, the Republican?
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote,” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 12-17, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 646 North Carolina likely voters with an error margin of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Cunningham is fueled by a 16-percentage-point advantage among female voters, while Tillis holds a 14-point edge among men. That gender gap is slightly wider than in the presidential race in North Carolina, where Biden leads by 11 points among women and Trump leads by 10 points among men.
The last few weeks of the Senate campaign have been dominated by revelations that Cunningham exchanged illicit text messages this summer with a woman who is not his wife. Cunningham, an officer in the Army Reserve who is a married father of two and has argued about the importance of character, has apologized for the texts but requested privacy, calling the issue a “personal matter.”
[Read full Post-ABC poll results]
Joe Biden speaks during a voter mobilization event at Riverside High School in Durham, N.C., on Sunday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)
Republicans have criticized Cunningham, with Tillis demanding a full explanation of the affair and a super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership airing an ad focused on the text messages that asks, “What else is he hiding?”
The Post-ABC poll suggests that while the scandal is a factor for some voters, it has not become the dominant issue for the overall electorate.
Cunningham’s 49 percent support among likely voters is identical to that of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, knotted in a close race against Trump, who stands at 48 percent.
[Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in North Carolina]
The poll finds 89 percent of likely voters in North Carolina are supporting the same party in the presidential and Senate elections, including 45 percent who support Biden and Cunningham and 44 percent who support Trump and Tillis. A 92 percent majority of Biden supporters back Cunningham, the same percentage of Trump supporters who back Tillis.
The close alignment between presidential and Senate support is not surprising given the degree to which voters are focused on which party controls the U.S. Senate. An 81 percent majority of North Carolina registered voters say control of the Senate is “extremely” or “very” important in their vote, including nearly 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans as well as about 7 in 10 independents.
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Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Most North Carolina voters see Senate control as important to vote, Cunningham’s affair less important
Q: Thinking about ___ how important is this in your vote for U.S. Senate — extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not so important?
Somewhat/
Not so important
Extremely/
Very important
Which party
controls the Senate
Tillis’s support
for Trump
Cunningham’s
extramarital affair
Note: “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 12-17, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 706 North Carolina registered voters with an error margin of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Most North Carolina voters see Senate control as important to vote, Cunningham’s affair less important
Q: Thinking about ___ how important is this in your vote for U.S. Senate — extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not so important?
Somewhat/
Not so important
Extremely/
Very important
Which party
controls the Senate
Tillis’s support
for Trump
Cunningham’s
extramarital affair
Note: “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 12-17, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 706 North Carolina registered voters with an error margin of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Most North Carolina voters see Senate control as important to vote, Cunningham’s affair less important
Q: Thinking about ___ how important is this in your vote for U.S. Senate — extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not so important?
Somewhat/Not so important
Which party
controls the Senate
Tillis’s support
for Trump
Cunningham’s
extramarital affair
Note: “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 12-17, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 706 North Carolina registered voters with an error margin of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Trump also looms large as a factor in the minds of voters, with a 56 percent majority saying Tillis’s support for the president is important in their vote, including majorities of Republicans and Democrats and just under half of independents.
Asked directly about the importance of Cunningham’s affair, 26 percent of registered voters say it is extremely or very important in their vote, including 41 percent of Republicans, 24 percent of independents and 11 percent of Democrats.
There is no gender gap on this question. Roughly 7 in 10 male and female voters alike say Cunningham’s affair is “somewhat important” or “not so important,” while about a quarter of both men and women say it is “very important” or “extremely important.”
More than 4 in 10 White evangelical Protestants say the scandal is important in their vote, though the heavily Republican group expresses the same level of support for Tillis in the Senate race as for Trump in the presidential election (82 percent).
President Trump greets the crowd after a rally Thursday in Greenville, N.C. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
Cunningham’s service in the U.S. Army National Guard, including tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, figured to put him in a strong position in a state in which nearly half of voters say someone in their household has served in the military. Voters in veteran households divide evenly, 47 percent for Cunningham to 48 percent for Tillis, almost the same as their 47-to-50 split between Biden and Trump in the presidential race.
The poll finds 28 percent of voters in military households say the affair is extremely or very important in their vote, roughly similar to 23 percent of voters in nonmilitary households.
The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 12 to 17 among a random sample of 795 adults, including 706 registered voters and 646 likely voters in North Carolina, with 75 percent of interviews completed on cellphones and the remainder on landlines. The margin of sampling error for results among both registered voters and likely voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Graphics by Daniela Santamariña. Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
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