What to watch for in the battle for the Senate

By Amber Phillips,

Apart from who wins the White House, which party wins the Senate majority is probably the biggest open question of 2020.

To have a governing majority next year in Washington, Democrats need control of the Senate. Without it, much — maybe even most — of an agenda by a President Joe Biden will be dead on arrival in a Republican-controlled Senate.

Here’s what we’re watching in trying to figure out the battle for the Senate.

Do Democrats win the majority?

Republicans won the majority in 2014, and 2020 brings Democrats’ first real chance to take it back.

Democrats probably need to pick up four seats to make it happen. They have Republicans on defense in as many as a dozen races, but a number of those are in traditionally Republican states — such as Georgia, Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas and Texas.

Will we know which party has the majority in November, or January?

There’s a possibility that the battle for the Senate majority comes down to one or two Senate races in Georgia.

Georgia’s election rules are such that if no candidate from either party gets 50 percent of the vote in November, the top two go to a runoff in January. Polls suggest both Senate races in Georgia, a traditional reelection for Sen. David Perdue (R) against Democrat Jon Ossoff, and a special election to fill an open seat among Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R) and pastor Raphael Warnock (D), could extend into January.

Erik S Lesser

EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Jon Ossoff, left, and Raphael Warnock campaign in Jonesboro, Ga., on Oct. 27.

That’s both good news for Democrats, in that they get two attempts to knock off Republicans, and a potential difficulty. Democrats haven’t had much luck in Georgia in January, and this time Biden won’t be on the ticket to help drive turnout.

If Democrats do win a majority, how big will it be?

It could be a slim margin, such as one or two seats. Or Democrats could be in a situation in which they have 50 seats to Republicans’ 50 seats but have Vice President Kamala D. Harris’s vote as a tiebreaker.

The close majority probably would mean plenty of political fights in the Senate, because both sides will be roughly evenly matched. And it’s almost certain that Democrats won’t have a supermajority, or 60 votes, to reliably overcome any filibuster on legislation that Senate Republicans want to muster.

What warnings, if any, are there for the GOP on losing the majority?

They’ve held the majority for almost six years. Now, they could lose it in states that have reliably voted Republican. Arizona, for example, has only sent a Democrat to the Senate once in the last 25 years — in 2018. They could also lose in Colorado, a purple state that is trending increasingly blue. They could lose their last New England Republican senator in Maine. Even South Carolina is in play. What’s the message for Republicans in these losses?

President Trump’s inability to get the coronavirus pandemic under control and his general unpopularity with women and independents is also dragging down Republicans.

Key states in the battle for the Senate

Ross D. Franklin

AP

Republican Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona campaigns at Republican Party headquarters in Phoenix on Monday.

Arizona: Sen. Martha McSally (R) was appointed to the late John McCain’s seat after losing her Senate election in 2018. She’s been trailing in polls consistently to the well-funded former astronaut and gun-control activist Mark Kelly. McSally recently declined to say in a debate if she’s proud of her support for Trump.

Colorado: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is trying to pull away from Trump in this purple-blue state, but the demographic changes may be too difficult for him to overcome the R next to his name. The Democratic challenger is former governor John Hickenlooper.

North Carolina: Despite an affair scandal revealed in the final weeks of the campaign, Democrat Cal Cunningham continues to lead in polls against Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in this swingiest of swing states, both at the Senate and presidential levels.

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) is in the fight of her decades-long career after becoming a target of liberals over her vote to confirm Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. (She voted against Justice Amy Coney Barrett.) Her Democratic challenger is Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon.

Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was elected six years ago as a conservative star, but she’s struggling to outrun Trump’s poor polling in this state. Her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, has been leading in some recent polls.

Georgia: We talked about how there are two races, Perdue’s, which is a toss-up, and the more crowded special election, which will almost certainly go to a runoff. Democrat Warnock looks as if he will make it into the top two.

And many more, including Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska and Texas.