Kristi Noem hails South Dakota as a coronavirus success story — using badly cherry-picked numbers

But when it comes to all-is-well op-eds in the Journal, South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R) is giving Pence a run for his money.

But to hear Noem tell it in her new op-ed in the Journal, her state is some kind of a success story. It’s avoidance of strong mitigation measures, according to Noem, has benefited its economy, and its problem isn’t all that bad, relative to other states.

Just as with Pence, though, she offers some highly suspect arguments to back up this claim — even when it comes to the few numbers she cherry-picked.

“Many in the media have criticized this approach, labeling me ill-informed, reckless and even a ‘denier,’ ” Noem said. “Some have asserted that South Dakota is ‘as bad as it gets anywhere in the world’ when it comes to covid-19 — a demonstrably false statement.”

It is most definitely not a demonstrably false statement. Data from the Federation of American Scientists in mid-November showed South Dakota’s per capita death rate was the third-highest of any hot spot worldwide in its data set. And Washington Post data show South Dakota has by far the highest per capita death rate in the country — 18.7 deaths per 100,000 people over the past seven days. Next highest is Kansas, at 10.2.

Noem doesn’t bother with that data, though. Instead she homes in on a few other states with tougher mitigation measures that she suggests offer favorable comparisons to her state.

“Despite harsh lockdowns in Illinois, coupled with a mask mandate since May 1, that state experienced a new single-day record in covid-19 deaths on Dec. 2, and its active case counts are higher, on a per capita basis, than South Dakota’s has ever been.”

Illinois’s new single-day high in covid deaths on Dec. 2 was 266. That’s 1 out of every 47,000 residents. Where South Dakota was on that day: 47 deaths. That’s 1 for every 19,000 residents. Even on the day spotlighted, South Dakota’s per capita death rate was more than twice that of Illinois.

What’s more, Noem’s reference to Illinois’s current active case count being higher than South Dakota’s peak is highly curious. Illinois’s current seven-day rolling average of cases is 79 per 100,000 residents; South Dakota’s peak in mid-November was 165 per 100,000 people. South Dakota’s cases are declining, but it’s still at 100 daily cases per 100,000 residents. (Active case counts subtract those who have recovered or died, which is different from daily new cases, but South Dakota has for weeks and weeks been significantly higher on new cases.)

Next, Noem turned to New Jersey.

“New Jersey, which still has had the most deaths in the country per capita, has had a mask mandate in place since June and has imposed $15,000-a-day fines on businesses that refuse to close,” she writes. “Still, over the last two weeks of November, its hospitalizations increased by 34 percent, a six-month high.”

New Jersey’s per capita death rate is indeed the highest in the country, but that’s accounting for the full length of the outbreak. The vast majority of its cases and deaths took place very early — before the mask mandate and fines that Noem cites.

As for hospitalizations, New Jersey has indeed seen an increase in recent weeks, but so have most states. Few have seen an increase like South Dakota did in recent weeks, though. Between mid-September and late September, its hospitalizations rose by more than 50 percent. Over the next two weeks, they rose again by 43 percent. The next two weeks? 36 percent. All of those two-week spikes are bigger than the one she points to in New Jersey.

And all told, South Dakota currently has 58 hospitalizations per 100,000 people — the second-highest in the nation behind Nevada — while New Jersey has 38.

Noem’s final comparison is California.

“California imposed a mask mandate in June and has some of the harshest lockdown orders in the country, including shutting off residents’ water if they have too many visitors,” she writes. “Despite that, the AP recently reported covid hospitalizations have increased nearly 90% and could triple by Christmas.”

Coronavirus hospitalizations in California have indeed increased by 90 percent over the past two weeks — but from a relatively low (and consistently so) per capita level. And it’s still on the low end of per capita hospitalizations, at 28 per 100,000 — about half of South Dakota’s current rate.

You can cherry-pick data to tell pretty much any story you want. But focusing on momentary increases (which are happening pretty much everywhere, to some degree or another) and ignoring South Dakota’s even worse increases and the overall picture of the past two-plus months is really to miss the forest for the trees.

Many factors play into these numbers, even apart from mitigation. Weather appears to be one. Another is how dense or rural a state is — i.e. how closely packed people are, which is much more of an obstacle in the states Noem compares hers to.

Things can also change, and thankfully South Dakota’s cases are declining right now. But that decline is off the highest peak in the nation at any point in the outbreak, and South Dakota right now has by far the highest death rate in the period in which she highlights her state’s lack of harsh mitigation. To suggest that’s some kind of success story might play into Noem’s political goals; it just doesn’t match up with reality.