How much of the covid death toll is a function of peer pressure?

“Please take them off. Honestly, it’s not doing anything,” DeSantis said. “We’ve got to stop with this covid theater. So if you want to wear it, fine, but this is ridiculous.”

The governor has made rejection of recommendations about containing the virus a centerpiece of his political efforts as his reelection bid approaches in November — and as the 2024 Republican presidential contest arrives on the horizon.

He has attacked Anthony S. Fauci repeatedly. He has invited Americans to come to the “free state of Florida,” where mask mandates are verboten and where vaccination is considered less important than treating those who contract the coronavirus. He appointed as surgeon general a vocal opponent of masks. The day after the incident with the students, DeSantis was fundraising off his bluster.

Of course, there are good reasons to wear masks. Speaking to MSNBC this weekend, one of the students who was positioned behind DeSantis described being called to the side and told by a DeSantis staffer to either remove his mask or to not rejoin the group. He complied — though he told the network that he wore a mask in part because his grandfather’s immune system is compromised.

This was not DeSantis’s concern. It’s not that he wants people to be free to wear masks if they feel more comfortable doing so or if they’re worried about infecting loved ones. He advocates a rejection of masks, because rejecting masks aligns with the Republican base. Contrast DeSantis with Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), who in December lifted state-level mandates in favor of people deciding for themselves and assuming their own risks. The students around DeSantis were told to remove their masks or not be seen with the governor. If they want to wear them, fine, he said — but it’s ridiculous.

What this gets at is something that’s difficult to measure: the social pressures of combating the coronavirus. Since the outset of the pandemic, polling has indicated that Americans generally fall into one of two groups. There are those who believe it’s important to wear a mask around others, who were quickly vaccinated and boosted and who have limited social interactions. Then there are those who wear masks only sporadically, shrug at getting vaccinated or boosted and who think that life should just get back to normal.

The first group is heavily made up of Democrats. The latter, of Republicans. Both groups have members who are adamant about imposing their views on the others. But each group has often set regional or community expectations. Travel between heavily Democratic and heavily Republican areas and you could quickly ascertain the local politics based on how often people were wearing masks or how adamant businesses were about masking rules. There’s an element of peer pressure that has guided local responses from the outset, and that pressure is often amplified by elected officials.

If we consider the population-adjusted number of covid-19 deaths since the pandemic began, we can see a rough pattern emerge. New England and the West Coast, both heavily Democratic, have been hit less hard than the Deep South. But a number of red states haven’t been hit hard, and a number of blue states have. The distinctions are often subtle.

If we look at the data on a daily basis, the picture changes. The number of per capita deaths in the most-red states, those that preferred Donald Trump by at least 10 points in 2020, has grown steadily since the emergence of the delta variant last summer — the first surge since vaccines were widely distributed. In the bluest states, where vaccination is more robust, the number of deaths since July has grown much less slowly.

On Aug. 3, the most-red and most-blue states had the same rate of per-population deaths. Since then, the number of population-adjusted deaths in heavily blue states has increased by 69 deaths per 100,000. The number in heavily red states has increased by 137 deaths per 100,000, almost exactly twice as much.

Or look at it another way: It was blue states in the Northeast that were hardest hit at the outset. But, over time, states sorted politically. By March 1, eight of the 10 states with the highest per capita death tolls voted for Trump in 2020. Seven of the 10 with the lowest death tolls voted for President Biden. Florida sits at 18th.

It’s hard to extricate this from what we have seen in both our experience and in polling. Unvaccinated Americans are at much more risk of dying and Republicans are less likely to be vaccinated. They’re also more likely to avoid measures that would limit their exposure to the virus in the first place. There’s no question that this is driven by community and personal relationships: a lot of people who would be safer if they wore high-quality masks have instead leaned into the idea that wearing a mask is somehow an indicator of weakness.

We are at a new place in the pandemic, one much like the last two springs when it seemed like the virus might be in permanent decline. Keeping it there means tracking increases in cases and, if necessary, informing people about when and how they might be at risk. It means supporting those at higher risk and understanding that many Americans are at higher risk.

If we’re going to increasingly shift responses to the individual level, it means respecting individual choices. It means freedom for people to choose to wear masks if they want to and political leadership that’s fine with those choices.

You would be justified in feeling skeptical about the prospects of this happening.