The state legislative battles that could change abortion law after Roe

But conservatives have the upper hand in all this: Republicans control 62 percent of legislative chambers, compared to Democrats’ 38 percent, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

This November, seats in almost every state legislature are up for election. That has Democrats hoping they can harness the abortion issue to unseat at least some Republican lawmakers and potentially change abortion law in a handful of states.

“The landscape for abortion rights is about to change dramatically … state legislatures are at the center of that fight,” said Jessica Post, president of the Democrats’ campaign committee for state legislatures, in a recent briefing with reporters.

Here are the states where the battle over state legislative control could make a difference in the battle over abortion access. As you’ll see, Democrats and abortion rights supporters are mostly on the defensive.

Could Democrats win back power in any states with trigger laws?

It’s not likely. Trigger laws are some of the most antiabortion laws on the books; years or sometimes decades ago, lawmakers in 13 states passed laws that would automatically limit or ban abortion as soon as the Supreme Court overturned abortion protections. All these states are solidly Republican at the state legislative level — states like Texas, Utah, Wyoming and Louisiana.

Even if a state like Texas turns more purple politically, it will be a while before that change filters into state legislatures. Gerrymandering by Republicans this year in state legislative districts in Texas will make it difficult to impossible for Democrats to win enough seats to change abortion law.

What it’s like to have a baby in the states most likely to ban abortion

The one state where Democrats could really make a difference: Michigan

Michigan is one of the 26 states that has a restrictive abortion law that will take effect if Roe falls. (Michigan doesn’t have a trigger law, but the state made abortion a felony in the 1930s, and that law is still on the books.) State Democrats have a chance to regain power there in November and repeal it.

Democrats are trying to retake the majority in both legislative chambers in Michigan, and they say that is in reach in a good election year. They’re also trying to reelect Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). With control of the legislative and executive branch, the party could have the power to rewrite abortion law.

But given President Biden’s approval ratings and voters’ pessimism about inflation, Democrats are on the defensive in more state legislative chambers than not, said Lou Jacobson, a nonpartisan state election analyst.

Democrats say they’re hoping to eat into Republican majorities in two more states with restrictive abortion laws set to go into effect — Georgia and Arizona — but they acknowledge they would need a really, really good election to flip any chambers in those states.

“We’re heading into an uncertain political environment, and we’re clear-eyed about the tough fight ahead,” Post, of the Democrats’ campaign committee for state legislatures, said.

Democrats are mostly on the defensive to keep states open to abortion rights

Democrats are looking to maintain majorities in swing states like Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico. These states all have broad access to abortion right now, according to a Washington Post analysis.

Democrats are also hoping to protect Democratic governors in North Carolina and Wisconsin who are up for reelection. Those legislatures aren’t really in play — Republicans in those states hold strong majorities, and even more so after redistricting. But these governors have veto power over Republican bills.

Democrats have some hope the likely end of Roe could help boost voter enthusiasm.

Last week, a day after news of the Supreme Court’s potential decision on abortion, Democrats won a special election in Michigan in a state legislative district that had voted heavily for Donald Trump in 2020. Post said her organization is seeing enthusiasm they hadn’t seen since the Trump administration. She said the day after news that Roe might fall this summer, they had their best fundraising day of the year.

But Democrats have been in such a deficit of state legislative control over the past decade that it seems their best-case scenario this year is to protect the status quo in states that already protect abortion rights and perhaps change abortion law in one or two others.